It has been five years now that we have heard the name Cade Cavalli. The triple digit fastball and "elite" prospect rankings have all come and gone. We were told he was the heir to the Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg throne of aces in our nation's capital. The guy who would be at the front of the rotation as the Nats returned to the promised land.
But, it's time to stop living in 2021. As we are now heading into the 2026 season, the Washington Nationals are banking very heavily with their pitching future on a 27 year old with 53 total Major League innings.
It's time to ask the question that many have been wondering: Is Cade Cavalli actually a cornerstone, or is he just a ghost of the past we're refusing to let go of?
The numbers are staggering. Since being drafted in the first round of the MLB Draft in 2020, Cavalli has unfortunately not been able to stay healthy, spending limited time on the big-league mound. Between Tommy John surgery and the "dead arm" setbacks that pushed back his return in 2025, he has become the equivalent of a McLaren that never leaves the garage.
While he finally was able to come and flash some life at the end of last season, with a 4.25 ERA over 10 starts, the command issues were still imminent. A 1.48 WHIP is not the stat line you look for from a frontline starter, but something you'd see from a fringe major leaguer. By penciling him in as a lock in the rotation, the front office is committing severe malpractice. You simply cannot build a winning culture around a pitcher that hasn't been able to prove that he can survive two straight months of an MLB schedule.
The Nationals' rotation is a house of cards. With MacKenzie Gore at the helm of trade rumors, as he has been since around the trade deadline of last year, and Josiah Gray still working back to form, banking on Cavalli is not "optimism" but just straight delusion. While he should definitely be given a chance to earn a spot, acting like there is no risk with him is not a smart way to build out a starting rotation.
Paul Toboni needs to stop acting like Cavalli is a sure thing. If the offseason comes to a close and the Nats don't sign a legitimate, veteran starter, they aren't rebuilding... they're just waiting for a miracle that isn't coming.