Will the Nationals look to deal Luis Garcia Jr. ahead of 2025 MLB trade deadline?

When news broke that Luis Garcia was getting traded to the Angels along with Andrew Chafin, everyone did a double-take. Which one of them was traded: the veteran pitcher they picked up a few weeks ago, or the long-term starting second baseman?

It turned out to be the former, which makes the trade rather impressive. However, it still makes us all think about Luis Garcia Jr.

After a very strong 2024 season, he has regressed to a degree at the plate and in the field. As he slowly moves closer towards free agency, could now be the time to trade him to a contender?

Overstated Offensive Regression

Garcia is tricky to evaluate as a hitter. Although his traditional batting statistics look noticeably worse than last year, the advanced data actually isn't much different. He's still near the 80th percentile of all hitters in expected slugging, the 87th percentile in squared up rate, striking out at a minimal rate, and has an expected batting average of .301. His value as a baserunner has regressed substantially, but it wouldn't be crazy to expect positive regression at the plate.

Throughout the course of his career, he's had rather profound platoon splits. Even in his breakout season last year, he had an OPS of nearly .800 against right-handed pitchers, but only .641 against lefties in somewhat (intentionally) limited opportunities. That difference is even more profound this year. He's still producing quite well against righties, but that drops to a 50 percent below-average rate against southpaws.

There are two ways of looking at this. On one hand, Garcia is an incomplete hitter who probably shouldn't be in the lineup every day. However, the flip side is that if used in more favorable matchups for him, a team could actually become very pleased with his productivity. If he stays at second base, he could be one of the productive hitters at the position if he sat against most left-handed pitchers. And even if he's hidden defensively (perhaps as a designated hitter), he'd still likely perform at an acceptable level at a low cost financially.

The Defensive Predicament

Now back to that defensive conversation. At the big league level, he's struggled on the infield dirt by essentially every metric. He's been that way in the past, and it's been about as bad as ever in 2025. He clearly outgrew shortstop a few years ago, his ability to get to fairly routine ground balls has been inconsistent, and his arm isn't particularly up to par either.

This is all much easier to accept when he's hitting well, but becomes extremely frustrating when he's in a slump at the plate. Frankly, it's somewhat befuddling that Washington still trots him out at second base so often.

For what it's worth, he's looked better defensively recently, and the data has improved accordingly. Maybe that's a product of the managerial change, which could suggest that his performance was partially due to poor morale and messaging within the clubhouse and not solely Garcia's ability. Still, it's hard to imagine him becoming more than an average defender.

Personally, I would love to see how Garcia performs as a designated hitter, or maybe even get some repetitions at another position like first base or an outfield corner. If he were to get traded, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see another team experiment with him in this way. As an example, that's what happened with Jeimer Candelario after the Cubs acquired him in 2023, when he started playing first base and DH a significant amount instead of third base every day.

Club Control and Cost

Garcia is still under contract for a decent amount of time. He still has two more arbitration-eligible seasons after this year, and he's making fewer than $5 million in 2025.

For someone who appears to be a solid player in a miscast role, that could be very appealing to other teams. He'd likely hit lower in someone else's lineup, play less often against lefties, and presumably be less exposed defensively. He'd probably also be introduced to a better coaching staff, so there's a chance that he could still improve in his weaker areas.

From the Nationals' perspective, trading Garcia now should also be seen as appealing. The sooner you do it, the more you get in return, and acquiring teams tend to be more desperate midseason than the offseason. I'm also interested in seeing Jose Tena or Nasim Nunez get consistent time at second base. It would make a lot of sense to see what they can provide for the last couple months of the season, as this would inform whether an addition is needed this offseason.

Although I'm pleased to see the Nationals are looking for a significant return, this report scares me a little bit. It reminds me a bit of Kyle Finnegan last year - which was even more inexcusable, since he was a pending free agent. Mike Rizzo and company demanded a certain threshold in return for Finnegan, and when that threshold wasn't met, they held onto him past the deadline. That's not how a rebuilding franchise should behave.

My assumption is that Washington is likely demanding a prospect that is in or near the acquiring team's top five, or possibly in the neighborhood of the top 100 prospects overall leaguewide. That feels a bit steep to me, and it leads me to believe he most likely won't get dealt.

To reiterate, Garcia is not on an expiring contract, so keeping him would be defensible. But personally, I think we've seen enough to know that he's not a building block. By the time the Nationals are hopefully competitive, Garcia will likely be on an expiring contract, much like MacKenzie Gore. In my opinion, it would be a mistake to not trade guys like that - either during the offseason or, preferably, at the Trade Deadline.

As always, you can let me know whether you agree with my thoughts on this topic at @stephen_newman1 on X.

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