In what was a surprising move on Sunday night, the Washington Nationals were able to sign former Detroit Tigers’ ace Max Scherzer to a seven-year deal, according to CBS’ Sports Jon Heyman.
With this deal, Mike Rizzo and company are able to at least ensure that they will have one ace in their rotation for the 2015 season. With Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister entering the final years of their contract and Stephen Strasburg being a free agent after the 2016 season, Washington was able to find a way to help improve their team for their quest of a World Series title.
Even though Rizzo does have some familiarity with Scherzer from his time with the Arizona Diamondbacks as a scouting director, you have to think Scott Boras went to ownership directly when you have a deal is that is going to be for $210 million, according to FOX Sports’ and MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal:
Source: Scherzer deal with #Nationals is seven years, $210M with half deferred. He will receive $15M per year for 14 years.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 19, 2015
It is an interesting move in regards to half-deferring the total amount because instead of being a pitcher getting $30 million per year in AAV, Scherzer is getting paid over a longer period of time, which could help the Nats in the short term in terms of keeping some of their expected free agents for next year. On the other hand, the Nationals could be paying Scherzer $105 million when he might not be even be pitching in the game. It’s a gamble, but one the Nationals had to take.
Two months ago, I wrote a free agent profile on Max Scherzer for Yanks Go Yard. When I examined his stats more closely, Scherzer has been one of the more durable pitchers in the game over the last few seasons, making no fewer than 31 starts in a single season since 2010.
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With the trade of Tyler Clippard last week, the Nationals’ bullpen isn’t as strong as it seemed to be when the offseason began. However, now with the Scherzer signing, you get a pitcher that only went fewer than five innings in two of his starts last season (Zimmermann had three starts of fewer than five innings).
With the Nationals bringing back an offense that was third in run scored, Scherzer should have a similar amount of run support that he was used to in Detroit. In starts where the Tigers gave him three or more runs last season, the 30-year-old pitcher was 16-2.
The one problem I have with Scherzer compared to Zimmermann is the lack of complete games on his resume. He has just one complete game in his career, which came last season. As for the two home-grown Nationals’ pitchers, Zimmermann has seven complete games in the last two seasons. The other home-grown pitcher, Strasburg, has only one complete game as well.
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Even with the lack of complete games, the Nats have built a super rotation in the NL East. In my opinion, they should keep the rotation as is. If anything, could this signal a move of Tanner Roark to the bullpen?
According to Fangraphs, the 28-year-old who went 15-10 last season, has an average velocity on his fastball of about 91 miles per hour and is a four-pitch pitcher. Roark, whose 5.1 WAR was tenth among all pitchers in the majors last season, is likely to move to the pen if no trade occurs because Gio Gonzalez would be the number five starter in the rotation.
While teams have been interested in Zimmermann, would a team give up some of its top prospects for a pitcher in the final year of his deal? Washington now can still try to sign Zimmermann to an extension and let Doug Fister walk in free agency.
While the payroll issue could be a concern going forward, one thing is for certain. Owner Ted Lerner is going for a World Series in 2015 and this could be one of those seasons where it’s championship or bust for fans in the Nation’s Capital as they now have arguably the best rotation in baseball.