Ranking The NL East: Bullpen

Today, we continue our series of Ranking the NL East in 2015 at District On Deck by looking at the bullpen of each team. Recently, the Washington Nationals addressed their eighth inning vacancy by signing reliever Casey Janssen to a one year, $5 million deal. The former Toronto Blue Jays’ closer joins a team that was second in the National League in bullpen ERA (3.00). The only team in the NL to have a lower reliever ERA than the Nats in 2014 was the San Diego Padres (2.73).

When you look at the reliever numbers from last season, four of the teams in the NL East had a top seven reliever ERA in the National League. The Philadelphia Phillies had the highest ERA of any of those teams (3.64), which was 11^th out 15 teams.

As far as the closer role goes, none of the teams in the NL East will have a different closer than what they had last season. That being said, the Atlanta Braves went out and signed Jason Grilli to be their eighth inning guy to Craig Kimbrel and the Miami Marlins acquired David Phelps and Aaron Crow via trades to help their pen.

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The New York Mets should be getting Bobby Parnell back to their bullpen mix after he had Tommy John surgery last season. The question will be whether or not Parnell can take the closer job away from Jenrry Mejia, who showed great flashes in that role last year.

Meanwhile, in Philadelphia, there have been many trade rumors surrounding closer Jonathan Papelbon, but the Phillies have a promising young reliever in Ken Giles that is their setup man right now, but could be their closer of the future.

So, which NL East team has the best bullpen heading into 2015? Check out my rankings:

Next: Number Five?

Aug 17, 2014; New York, NY, USA; New York Mets relief pitcher

(58) delivers a pitch during the ninth inning against the Chicago Cubs at Citi Field. Chicago Cubs won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

5. New York Mets

Even though the New York Mets show up at the bottom of these NL East rankings, this does not mean that their bullpen isn’t talented. New York has some solid young arms that could put them on top of this list in future years. That being said, this is a bullpen with some major flaws.

One of those flaws is closing out games. Last season, the Mets only closed out 66% of their saves, which was tied with the Miami Marlins for the fourth lowest in the division. Mets’ relievers also had the eighth highest FIP last season in all of baseball at 3.88.

Their closer is Jenrry Mejia, a 25-year-old from the Dominican Republic. Last season, Mejia became the closer after Bobby Parnell underwent Tommy John surgery in April. He had 28 saves in 31 chances, but still had a 3.65 ERA and his FIP was 3.73 (the highest of any closer in the NL East).

That being said, I liked the way Mejia finished his 2014 season, In seven appearance in September, he was 1-0 with a 1.54 ERA and converted all seven of his save opportunities . Plus, his celebrations after saves were very cool and appealing to the new generation of baseball fans.

When I look at the Mets’ bullpen as a whole, one of the relievers I like is Jeurys Familia. The 25-year-old had a 2.21 ERA in 76 appearances last year and held opponents to a .209 batting average (righties hit .134). 26-year-old Vic Black had a 1.09 ERA in the first half of the season before posting a 4.61 ERA after the All-Star Break.

This is a Mets’ bullpen that is filled with a lot of young talent and hard throwing pitchers. If Parnell (30 years old) can stay healthy and turn back into the pitcher that appeared in 49 games in 2013 and had a 2.16 ERA to go with 22 saves, then the bullpen is that much better.

Unfortunately, Fangraphs has New York projected as the second worst bullpen in baseball, only ahead of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. While the Mets’ bullpen may be a crutch to their excellent crop of young starters, it is a pen that can definitely improve and maybe surprise some people in 2015.

Next: Number Four?

Sep 13, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies relief pitcher

(58) pitches in the ninth inning against the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

4. Philadelphia Phillies 

As I mentioned before, the Phillies had the highest ERA of any NL East bullpen last season (3.64), but they were sixth in the NL in bullpen FIP (3.44). While that number is the second lowest in the division, it still shows the depth that the NL East has at this position in baseball.

When you look at the closer, Jonathan Papelbon, he had his best season since 2011 in terms of FIP (2.53). The 34-year-old closer had 39 saves in 43 chances and posted a 2.04 ERA in 2014. While his strikeouts per nine are down from 11.8 in 2012 to 8.5 a season ago, he is one of those relievers that can stay healthy, appearing in at least 60 games in each of the last eight seasons.

With Papelbon owed $26 million over the last two seasons of his contract, could Ruben Amaro Jr. deal him to make room for the future Philadelphia closer?

While Ken Giles is only 24 years old, the seventh round pick in the 2011 Draft had a 1.18 ERA in 44 appearances last year. In the last three months of the season, Giles recorded a ERA of below one in two of those months (July and September). He is projected by Fangraphs in 2015 to have the highest WAR of any Phillies’ reliever this season (1.0).

In the seventh inning, you have Jake Diekman. While Diekman was 5-5 with a 3.80 ERA in 73 games last year, he got some pretty good comments from Nats’ outfielder Bryce Harper last September, who called the Phillies’ bullpen “unbelievable”:

“You’ve got Diekman, who’s 98 to 100 (mph) from the left side. You’ve got Giles, who is 100 also from the right side with a dirty slider. And then you’ve got Pappy, who has been out there for a long time. He’s a guy that has closed games for a long time and knows how to pitch. That’s fairly tough. When you have a guy that comes in the fifth inning like (Justin) De Fratus throwing 98 mph, you don’t see that. It’s pretty crazy to see.” (h/t CSN Philly)

If Philadelphia keeps Papelbon for the 2015 season, this is a pen that also will improve from its high ERA last season. If Giles and Diekman can continue to develop, it’s a solid combination of hard-throwing arms, similar to what the Mets have. The key is are the Phillies ready to make Giles the closer at age 24? We will find out.

Next: Number Three?

Sep 23, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins relief pitcher

(31) throws during the ninth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Marlins Ballpark. The Marlins won 2-0. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

 3. Miami Marlins 

If you go by a pitcher’s WAR statistic, the Miami Marlins had the second best bullpen in the National League, according to Fangraphs. The only team that had a higher bullpen WAR than Miami was the Washington Nationals. In fact, the NL East had four of the top five in that category.

Miami’s closer is Steve Cishek, who in my opinion, is one of the more underrated closers in the game. He has appeared in at least 67 games in each of the last three seasons. In 2014, he saved 39 games in 43 chances, had a ERA of 3.17 and a FIP of 2.17 (second lowest of any closer in the NL East). His strikeout rate has either stayed the same or increased in each of last four seasons, culminating in a 11.6 K’s per nine innings last year. It will be interesting to see if the 28-year old can continue his success in 2015.

As far as setup men go, Mike Dunn had 10 wins out of that spot. Dunn has appeared in 75 games in each of the last two seasons in Miami. Dunn also had a 10+ K’s per nine innings in 2014, but his walk rate is a major concern as he has a career 4.7 walks per nine in his six years in the league.

Miami made two interesting moves this offseason in trades for Aaron Crow and David Phelps. Crow was 6-1 with the Royals last year, but had a 4.12 ERA, only five K’s per nine innings and almost four walks per nine. As for Phelps. The 28-year old starter/reliever has a career ERA of 3.84 out of the bullpen, but has over two more strikeouts per nine than as a starter.

The key for the Marlins’ bullpen is to avoid giving up so many free passes. If they can do that, they can do better than Fangraphs’ #16 projection. Cishek is a great closer, but they need the setup men behind him to gain better command of their pitches.

Next: Number Two?

Sep 17, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves relief pitcher

(46) pitches against the Washington Nationals during the ninth inning at Turner Field. The Braves defeated the Nationals 3-1. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

2. Atlanta Braves 

Even though Fredi Gonzalez’s bullpen will look different in 2015 with the loss of setup man David Carpenter (traded to the Yankees along with Chasen Shreve for Manny Banuelos) and reliever Anthony Varvaro (signed with the Red Sox), the conversation for Atlanta’s bullpen starts and ends with closer Craig Kimbrel.

Kimbrel, a four-time All-Star at age 26, has saved 40 or more games in each of the last four seasons. Last season, he saved 47 games in 51 chances. The 47 saves were the most in the National League. He had nearly 14 strikeouts per nine innings and held his opponents to a .142 average for the entire season.

What remains to be seen is if the Braves can put together a good bridge to Kimbrel. They signed former Pirates’ reliever Jason Grilli to a two-year deal this winter to try to help with the eighth inning. The 38-old struggled in Pittsburgh last season (4.87 ERA in 16 games) before being dealt to the Angels. However, the NL could help Grilli return to the form he had in Pittsburgh from 2011-2013 when he had a sub-three ERA in all three seasons.

Atlanta also signed Jim Johnson this offseason to a one-year deal. The former Orioles closer had a 7.09 ERA last year with Detroit and Oakland and hasn’t been the same pitcher since those playoff blown saves against the Yankees. If Johnson can return to form in the set-up spot, that will give Atlanta some options for their middle relief.

Kimbrel still remains one of the faces of a re-building Braves franchise. While he is arguably the best closer in the game, that alone can’t put the Braves at number one on this list.

Next: Number One?