Washington Nationals Opinions: Three Bold Predictions for the Second Half

Jul 5, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper (34) celebrates with Ian Desmond (20) after beating the San Francisco Giants 3-1 at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

We’ve finally reached the midpoint of the season. The All-Star Game has come and gone, and the second half is slated to get underway tomorrow night.

For the Washington Nationals, the break couldn’t have come at a better time. While they’ve still managed to claw and fight their way to nine games over .500, their lead over the New York Mets for control of the subpar NL East is just a measly two games. They’ve run the gamut from cold to hot and back to cold again, while suffering more than their fair share of injuries. The time off for the Midsummer Classic was needed, if for nothing else than to get some of their injured players some rest.

So, with the first half now in the books, what should Nationals fans expect for the second half of the season?

There are a few obvious answers, the first of which is improved health. The Nationals have been one of the teams hardest hit by the injury bug this year, with Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth, Denard Span, and Ryan Zimmerman all missing extensive playing time. The continued excellence of Max Scherzer, who has been worth every penny in the first year of his $210 million contract, also seems highly probable.

But what else should Nationals fans expect? What sorts of surprises are lurking in the second half of the season? While there’s no telling what lies ahead in the world of sports, District on Deck has some bold predictions for what the future has in store for the Nats.

Next: Prediction One: Nifty Fifty

Jul 7, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper (34) stands at the plate during the sixth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Nationals Park. Cincinnati Reds defeated Washington Nationals 5-0. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Bryce Harper Will Hit 50 Home Runs

Through 87 games at the All-Star break, Bryce Harper is currently sitting on 26 home runs for the season, already four better than his previous high of 22, which was set back in his rookie season of 2012 when he was just 19 years old. Currently, he’s on pace to finish the season with 48 home runs, so sliding the projection up two might not seem like the boldest of predictions.

There are a lot of factors that are in play here, though. Harper, like any other hitter, faces the possibility of a slump, and there’s no guaranteeing he’ll find the same sort of hot streak that he did in early May where he hit six home runs in a three game span. There’s also Harper’s health to worry about. Though he’s managed to avoid the more serious injuries he was prone to the last two years, that doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen in the second half of the season.

All of that being said, I think this is Harper’s year. This is the season when Harper’s performance matches his projections, where life and legend finally converge, and Harper, fully healthy, realizes his potential as one of baseball’s most transcendent players. Feel free to knock on wood if you must, but I predict that when all is said and done, Harper will finish the year with 140-plus games played and 50 home runs, breaking Alfonso Soriano’s franchise record of 46.

The scary thing about this is that Harper is still just 23 years old. If he comes through for the Nationals and does hit 50, he may, in the near future, become the first player not lined to PEDs to hit more than 61.

Next: Prediction Two: Jayson Werth's Impact

May 11, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Washington Nationals outfielder Jayson Werth against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Jayson Werth’s Impact Will Be Minimal

The Nationals lineup has been without several of its projected Opening Day starters for a large portion of the year. Rendon, Zimmermann, Werth – all have missed extensive time due to injury at one point or another during the year. Given all of this, it’s logical to think that once these players return, offensive output should increase.

In Jayson Werth’s case, though, I predict his impact to be minimal. In fact, his absence may ultimately be addition by subtraction.

Even before hitting the disabled list, Werth was already struggling at the plate, hitting a meager .208 to go along with an OPS of .581, with two homers in 27 games. When he returns, he’ll be recovering from a wrist injury in addition to the shoulder surgery that he underwent during the offseason, adding another obstacle to Werth’s road back to offensive effectiveness.

Meanwhile, Michael Taylor, Werth’s replacement, is finally starting to get settled in at the plate, hitting .246/.296/.375. Taylor also represents a significant upgrade on defense. Werth may have been a plus defender in his prime, but age and injury have sapped him of range and arm strength. The move to left field can only do so much to hide Werth’s growing deficiencies.

There is one thing that Werth provides that Taylor can’t, however: veteran leadership. His playoff experience, proponents argue, offer a value that can’t be measured in simple statistics.

That’s a fair point, but answer me this: how’d that strategy work out for you in the playoffs last year?

If you’ll recall, Werth, veteran leadership and all, vanished in the NLDS. In the four game series, he went 1-for-17 for a slash line of .058/.200/.059. Sure, that’s a small sample size, but if Werth is being counted on to be a leader, putting up those sort of numbers is unacceptable. All the intangibles in the world don’t matter if you don’t produce during crunch time.

Given Werth’s recent injuries, I predict that he won’t finish 2015 very strongly. And as hard is it may be, if that’s the case, Werth may be more valuable coming off the bench.

Next: Prediction Three: Playoff Potency?