Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nats vs. Mets (7/20-7/22)
Jul 17, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; New York Mets right fielder Curtis Granderson (3) is congratulated by teammates as he enters the dugout after hitting a solo home run during the first inning of a baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Kane-USA TODAY Sports
After losing two out of three games to the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend, the Washington Nationals (49-41) get set for arguably their biggest series of the season to date. Tonight, the New York Mets (48-44) enter Nats Park just two games back in the NL East and they will be sending their three top pitchers to the mound in this series (Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard). This season, the Nats are 4-3 against the Mets, but two of those losses are with Max Scherzer on the mound.
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When you look at both of these teams, the problem for them is on offense. Both of these teams are in the bottom five in the National League in runs scored for the month. The Mets have scored 41 runs while the Nats have 37.
As for Terry Collins’ team, they did get a big win yesterday against the St. Louis Cardinals, 3-1, in 18 innings to avoid the sweep. However, they left 25 men on base and went 1-for-26 with runners in scoring position. As a team, the Mets have scored the fewest runs in the NL this season (317).
First baseman Lucas Duda leads the team in RBI’s with 38, but he is 6-for-47 at the plate this month. Their best hitters this month, in terms of players who have played ten or more games are second baseman Wilmer Flores and shortstop Ruben Tejada, who are both hitting over .300. The question though is whether or not Michael Cuddyer will be playing in this series. The Mets’ left fielder left the game Sunday with a knee injury. If he goes on the disabled list, the Mets could call up one of their prospects, double-A outfielder Michael Conforto.
When you talk about the Mets, the conversation starts with the starting rotation. Their starters’ ERA is at 3.44, which is fifth in the NL, but they are tied with the Nats in terms of wins by the rotation (37 – tied for fourth in NL). All of their starters have been solid, but without Steven Matz (torn lat muscle), Jon Niese has stepped up and pitched to a 1.21 ERA in three starts in July.
In the bullpen, closer Jeurys Familia blew the save in the 13th inning yesterday, but he has still been one of the more effective closers in the NL. Familia has a 1.42 ERA and has saved 27 of 30 games this season. One player that has stepped up in the bullpen is Bobby Parnell, who has a 0.79 ERA in 12 appearances. Now with Jenrry Mejia, who is back after his 80-game PED suspension, New York’s 2.71 bullpen ERA is third in the National League.
With that being said, let’s take a look at who has the edge in the three pitching matchups:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Jul 11, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Matt Harvey (33) pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports
Matt Harvey (8-6, 3.07) vs. Gio Gonzalez (6-4, 3.99) – 7:05 PM ET, broadcast on MASN and ESPN
It’s been an up and down year for Matt Harvey, better known as “the Dark Knight” to some Mets fans. At times, he has looked like the pitcher who took the league by storm in 2013. Other times, he struggles with command as he is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss the entire 2014 season.
While the 26-year-old right-hander has had struggles with command, he has given up a combined total of only six runs in his last six starts. Despite not giving up many runs, he has walked 12 batters in his last four starts and nine batters in his last two starts.
When you watch a Harvey start, one thing to keep on is his slider, which is one of his dominant pitches outside of his fastball. Plus, he has a great history against the Nationals. In six starts against them, he is 3-1 with a 0.68 ERA and he has not given up a run in two starts against them this season. Ian Desmond is 4-for-14 against Harvey with a home run.
Gio Gonzalez may not get as much attention as Max Scherzer and Jordan Zimmermann, but he has put up three good starts in a row. In his last outing against the Orioles on July 10, Gonzalez went six innings, gave up one run on six hits, struck out five, and walked three in a no-decision. Gonzalez has given up one earned run in his last 20 innings.
Still, Gonzalez still has the tendency to have command issues as he has walked 36 batters this season. But, one thing that’s for certain is that Gonzalez can pitch on extended rest after having an outing postponed after an inning in Philadelphia and going out on July 3 after missing nearly two weeks and throwing seven innings of one run ball in a win over the Giants.
Gonzalez shut out the Mets back on May 2 at Citi Field. He went seven innings, gave up six hits, struck out nine (a season high) and walked two on 111 pitches (season high) in a 1-0 win. He is 8-4 against the Mets lifetime with a 2.87 ERA in 14 starts. One Met to watch is center fielder Juan Lagares (.252, 3 HR, 25 RBI’s). Lagares is 8-for-19 with a home run and four RBI’s against Gonzalez.
Advantage: The key in this game is going to be which offense can find a way to get on the board first. One of the problems for Harvey is the Mets is when the team scores 0-2 runs, he has not won a game this season. I expect this game to be low scoring, but Harvey has control of the Nats and especially Bryce Harper (0-for-12, six strikeouts). Mets squeak out a close one, 3-2.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Jul 14, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; National League pitcher Jacob deGrom (48) of the New York Mets throws against the American League during the sixth inning of the 2015 MLB All Star Game at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports
Jacob deGrom (9-6, 2.14) vs. TBD – 7:05 PM ET, MASN2
With Harvey’s up and down season, you can make the case that deGrom has emerged as the Mets’ ace in their talented rotation. In his last ten starts, deGrom has given up a grand total of 11 earned runs. He made one of the big splashes on last Tuesday’s All-Star when he struck out the side on ten pitches in the top of the sixth.
Before the All-Star Break, deGrom went up against the San Francisco Giants and gave up no runs on two hits over eight innings. He struck out ten batters and walked one. Currently, the 27-year-old right-hander is fourth in the Naitonal League in ERA and third in WHIP. In three starts this month, he is 1-1 with a 2.03 ERA and has held opponents to a .188 batting average after they hit a miniscule .157 in five starts during the month of June.
deGrom pitched the second game of the season at Nats Park and made one mistake, which was a two-run homer to Ryan Zimmerman in the bottom of the first. He went six innings, gave up two runs on six hits, struck out six, and walked two in the loss on April 8. He is 0-2 against the Nats in three career starts with a 4.15 ERA. Wilson Ramos is 2-for-6 against deGrom with a double and two RBI’s.
While the Nationals have not officially named Tuesday’s starter, all signs point to Joe Ross getting the nod in this game because Tanner Roark pitched on Friday and then on Saturday because of the suspended game. In five starts since being sent down to triple-A Syracuse, Ross is 3-1 with a 2.19 ERA. While he has a low strikeout total (15), he has held opponents to a .174 batting average. In his last start on July 16 against Gwinnett (Atlanta Braves), he gave up two hits over five innings and struck out three.
Of course, everyone remembers how the 22-year-old right-hander was able to have success at the Major League level. In three starts with the Nats, he went 2-1 with a 2.66 ERA. In his last MLB start on June 19 vs. the Pirates, he went 7.1 innings, gave up one run on six hits, struck out 11, and walked one in a win. Ross has yet to face the Mets in his career.
Advantage: While Ross has the element of surprise and deGrom has yet to face the Nats, it is clear that Washington is the underdogs on paper. With the way Kershaw and Greinke dominated the Nats over the weekend, deGrom is on that kind of a roll himself right now. Plus, he is holding his opponents to a .188 average on the road this season (.221 at home). Mets take the second game.
Next: Wednesday's Matchup
Jul 17, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; xxx Washington Nationals starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann (27) throws to the Los Angeles Dodgers during the second inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Noah Syndergaard (4-5, 3.05) vs. Jordan Zimmermann (8-5, 3.27) – 12:35 PM ET, MASN and MLB Network
This will be the first time that the Nationals will be facing Noah Syndergaard. The 22-year-old right-hander was acquired by the Mets via a trade with the Blue Jays in 2012 along with catcher Travis d’Arnaud in exchange for R.A. Dickey.
Over his last four starts, Syndergaard has given up a total of five runs in a 29 inning span. One thing that Syndergaard can do is rack up the strikeouts. Back on July 10 against the Diamondbacks, he struck out 13 batters and gave up one hit over eight innings. The problem for him is that the Mets don’t score him any runs. Out of his 12 starts, the Mets have scored two runs or fewer in seven of them.
Jordan Zimmermann will come into this game after an abbreviated start against the Los Angeles Dodgers. On July 17, he went four innings, gave up two runs on three hits, struck out three, and walked one. He left the game after 63 pitches because of the lighting delays.
Still, Zimmermann has done a good job of minimizing the damage in most of his outings. In five of his last six starts, he has given up three runs or fewer. Plus, his control seems to be back as he has walked one batter or less in eight of his last ten outings.
Zimmermann’s only start against the Mets this season was on April 8 against Jacob deGrom. He went six innings, gave up one run on five hits, struck out four and walked none in the victory. In 21 starts against New York, he is 8-5 with a 2.91 ERA. Daniel Murphy is 17-for-53 against him with three home runs and eight RBI’s.
Advantage: I expect all three games in this series to be close and low scoring. The problem for Syndergaard is that the Mets don’t get enough runs for him when he pitches. Both pitchers will have good outings, but I give the slight edge to Jordan Zimmermann as the Nats avoid the sweep and stay on top of the NL East.