Washington Nationals 2016 Player Preview: Bryce Harper
By Grant Thomas
Our latest Nats player preview takes a look at last year’s National League MVP, Bryce Harper
In ESPN’s recent feature on Bryce Harper that shook the baseball world in its own small way, the NL MVP didn’t mince his words. He simply believes he’s the best. He always has:
"“I will never say anybody’s better than me,” he says. “I don’t think those words will ever come out of my mouth.” (h/t Tim Keown, ESPN The Magazine)"
Confident. Unshaken. That’s arguably the best player in baseball.
The thing is, now he has a historic season to back up his assertions. He gave fans everywhere the season they were hoping for out of the number one overall pick from 2010. The incredible slash line of .330/.460/.649 won him respect. He led all of baseball in on-base percentage and slugging percentage and paced the National League in homers and runs.
More from District on Deck
- Washington Nationals Minor League Spotlight: Robert Hassell III
- Washington Nationals Tuesday Q&A
- 3 Free Agents the Nationals Should Gamble On
- A Washington Nationals Christmas Wishlist
- Washington Nationals: Is Seth Lugo Still an Option?
Now he’s using that fame to bring the sport into a new light, one that allows more emotion and celebration on the field. His movement has its doubters (Sergio Romo, Goose Gossage) but also backers (Archie Bradley, Kris Bryant). The best way for him to help himself is to have an ever better season than last year. Is that possible?
There’s certainly a chance. Harper’s 124 walks last season occurred with tons of injuries and little protection in the lineup around him. With the possibility for improved health this season, that number can shoot to scary heights. More walks equals a higher on-base percentage, which could also result in more runs and more wins for the Washington Nationals.
His selectivity at the plate showed huge improvement and there isn’t any reason to believe it won’t continue improving with age. According to Fangraphs, Harper swung at just around 28 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, a noticeable seven percent decrease from 2014; he swung at 72.5 percent of pitches inside the strike zone, a three percent decrease; and his first-pitch-strike percentage was 54.6 percent, a huge 6.4 percent decrease.
Even so, the three major projection systems on Fangraphs (Fans, ZiPs, and Steamers) predict a drop in batting average, home runs, OPS, and wOBA.
More from Nationals News
- Washington Nationals Tuesday Q&A
- A Washington Nationals Christmas Wishlist
- Robots in Baseball? The Possibility of an Automated Ball/Strike System in the MLB
- Washington Nationals Re-Sign RHP Erasmo Ramirez
- Washington Nationals Sign RHP Trevor Williams
But, we know Harper and his enjoyment in bucking trends. Where he bats in the order — and the quality of the players directly around him — will have a heavy bearing on his output.
In 2015, Harper batted third about 70 percent of the time and cleanup about 30 percent of the time. 289 of his at-bats were with no runners on (when he hit 25 solo home runs), and 232 were with runners on (17 home runs). He should really be hitting fourth because with the new contact hitters the Nationals picked up, manager Dusty Baker needs to maximize Harper’s opportunities to drive in runs.
The best lineup to surround Harper with would look similar to this: (1) Ben Revere, (2) Jayson Werth, (3) Anthony Rendon, (4) Harper, (5) Ryan Zimmerman. Revere has the potential to steal more than 40 bases; a healthy Werth is an on-base machine with some power; if Rendon can get on the field and anywhere close to his 2014 performance, he’ll be a perfect third hitter; Zimmerman has always been a clutch RBI machine.
Next: Nats Win 12-7 In Giolito's First Spring Start
While hitting Harper fourth does take away some of his at bats, there is certainly more contact and speed available to Baker than there was for Matt Williams last year. That alone can make hitting Harper cleanup worth it.
So, the verdict is in: there’s a strong possibility Harper can surpass 2015’s numbers with the right formula around him. If he does, the rest of the league should watch out. There will be a record-high number of celebrations coming your way.