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Washington Nationals: Time To Be Concerned About Max Scherzer

By Ricky Keeler |
Apr 26, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer (31) pitches doing the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 26, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer (31) pitches doing the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Through six starts, Washington Nationals’ ace Max Scherzer has given up the most home runs in baseball. Is it time to be concerned?

If you told anyone that the Washington Nationals would be 19-10 through their first 29 games and Max Scherzer would be the one with the highest ERA in the starting rotation, people would think you were crazy. Well, after yesterday’s start in Chicago, it’s time to be concerned about Scherzer as the Nats’ ace continues to give up the long ball.

Yesterday afternoon, at Wrigley Field, Scherzer went only five innings, gave up seven runs on seven hits, struck out seven, and walked three on 96 pitches (61 strikes) in the loss. The most alarming stat that stood out about his outing was the four home runs he gave up. Through six starts, Scherzer has allowed the most home runs of any starter in baseball (nine).

After Scherzer had shut out the Cardinals and gave up four hits over seven innings last Sunday, it was thought that he turned the corner after having a 4.35 ERA in the month of April. However, after his outing yesterday, he had an interesting response as to what went wrong:

Now, I wouldn’t panic yet because Scherzer has the track record of an ace and let’s keep in mind that he was facing a team that has a run differential of +98 through its first 27 games and is 21-6. But, there are numbers to look at that show there should be a high level of concern.

For one, let’s look at his fastball. If you look at his average velocity on his fastball of 94 miles per hour (according to Fangraphs), it is exactly what it was throughout last season (94.2). The problem for Scherzer has definitely been his location of his fastball. If you look at the nine home runs he has given up this season, seven of them have occurred on a fastball.

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Yesterday, when Scherzer was given a 2-0 lead, including his own RBI single, he was not able to protect it and he has struggled in the early innings this year. If you look at innings one through three, he has given up 15 runs, which is six more than anyone on the Nats’ staff (Roark has allowed nine runs).

Plus, in the first time through the order, Scherzer is tied with the Giants’ Jake Peavy for third in runs allowed (eight). Only Taylor Jungmann of the Brewers (nine) and Alfredo Simon of the Reds (13) have allowed more (ESPN.com). With Scherzer, it’s going to be all about whether or not he can locate the fastball in the early innings. If he can do that, it will allow him to establish his confidence and get him in a rhythm to dominate in the latter stages of the game.

Next: Recap: Scherzer Gives Up Four Home Runs In Loss To Cubs

There will be some pressure on Scherzer in his next start because the opposing starter on Wednesday is scheduled to be his former teammate in DC, Jordan Zimmermann. For now, the concern level should be high, but I wouldn’t panic just yet.

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