Washington Nationals vs. Mets Series Preview (5/23-5/25)
After taking two of three from the Mets last week, the Washington Nationals will host them in a three game series beginning tonight
Tonight, the Washington Nationals (27-17) will begin their second series in two weeks against the New York Mets (25-18). Last week, the Nats won two of three games at Citi Field. Now, the two teams will play three games at Nats Park.
Over the weekend, the Nats took two of three against the Miami Marlins and had a chance to sweep the series, but failed to capitalize on a bases loaded, no out situation in the ninth on Saturday. However, they have gotten more production in the lineup from Anthony Rendon (10-for-20 with seven RBI’s in his last seven games) and leadoff hitter Ben Revere (8-for-23 with four RBI’s).
As for the Mets, they played the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend at Citi Field and swept all three games, including a walk-off single by David Wright on Saturday. The one injury concern for the Mets coming into this series is first baseman Lucas Duda. Duda was placed on the DL today due to a stress fracture in his back:
The diagnosis on Lucas Duda is a stress fracture in his lower back. There is no timetable for his return. "It will be a while." #Mets
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) May 23, 2016
Even though the Mets have hit the most home runs of any team in the National League (60) with Yoenis Cespedes leading the team (14), they have had issues getting hits with runners in scoring position. Right now, Terry Collins’ squad has a .210 batting average in those situations. Against the Nats last week, the Mets scored four runs in three games with three of them coming via the home run.
Before the series starts tonight, here is my breakdown of the three pitching matchups:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Bartolo Colon (3-3, 3.75 ERA) vs. Gio Gonzalez (3-1, 1.86) – 7:05 p.m ET, broadcast on MASN
These two pitchers faced each other last Tuesday at Citi Field with the Washington Nationals getting the win in that one, 7-1. First, let’s start with the Mets’ starter, Bartolo Colon. Colon had some command issues in that outing. He went 4.2 innings, gave up three runs on five hits, struck out four, and walked five in the loss.
The 42-year-old right-hander had only four walks in his six prior starts coming into Tuesday night’s game. Plus, he has given up three runs or more in five of his last six outings. This month, he is 2-2 with 4.07 ERA in four starts and he has a 4.81 ERA on the road this season (2.66 at home).
Against the Nats, Colon is 3-6 with a 3.33 ERA in ten games (nine starts). Anthony Rendon is 6-for-16 (.375) with one home run and four RBI’s in his career against Colon.
As for Gonzalez, he was in complete control against New York on Tuesday. The left-hander went 6.1 innings, gave up one run on five hits, struck out five, and walked one on 94 pitches to pick up his third win of the season.
The one mistake that Gonzalez made in the game was a solo home run hit by Cespedes in the bottom of the fourth. Other than that, he threw 16 first pitch strikes to the 25 batters he faced and 62 of his 94 pitches went for strikes.
This month, Gonzalez has a 2.35 ERA in four starts, which is the lowest of any pitcher in the Washington Nationals starting rotation. His 1.86 ERA this year is third in the National League behind Clayton Kershaw and Jake Arrieta.
Gonzalez is 10-4 with a 2.59 ERA in 18 career games against the Mets and he has given up only four runs in his last five outings against New York. Cespedes is 4-for-7 against him with that solo home run.
Prediction: With the Nats getting more success from the top of the lineup, I expect the team to take the same approach against Colon and try to draw walks. If Colon is not locating with his fastball, I think the offense can give Gonzalez the one big inning he needs to pick up the win.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Matt Harvey (3-6, 5.77) vs. Stephen Strasburg (7-0, 2.80) – 7:05 p.m, MASN
One of the big questions in baseball lately has been what is wrong with Matt Harvey. Those questions only got louder after his last start against the Nats and Strasburg. In that game on Wednesday, he went 2.2 innings, gave up nine runs (six earned runs) on eight hits, struck out two, and walked two.
It’s been a rough May for the 27-year-old right-hander as he has a 7.20 ERA in four starts this month with teams hitting .344 against him (.325 on the season). He made the one mistake on the curveball that Daniel Murphy in the first inning on Monday for a two-run home run. Then, the Nats hit him up for seven runs in the third inning.
Against the Washington Nationals, Harvey is 3-4 with a 2.49 ERA in 11 career outings. In his last three starts against the Nats, he has given up 17 runs (13 earned runs) in 13 innings. Ben Revere is 4-for-13 against him with three RBI’s.
Due to the Nats offense having success against Harvey, Strasburg was able to pitch with a comfortable lead. He went six innings, gave up one run on six hits, struck out ten, and walked one on 113 pitches as his record improved to 7-0. Plus, the Nats have won each of his last 13 starts.
In that outing against the Mets, he only gave up singles after giving up three home runs in his two prior outings. Strasburg has struck out at least seven batters in eight consecutive outings.
Against the Mets, Strasburg is 5-3 with a 2.66 EA in ten career starts with two of those losses taking place last season. Neil Walker is 5-for-14 (.357) with one home run and two RBI’s in his career against Strasburg.
Prediction: While I expect Harvey to be much better in this start tomorrow than in his last one, it’s tough to pick against Strasburg the way he’s pitching right now. I think it will be more of a pitcher’s duel, but the Nats find a way to win late.
Next: Wednesday's Matchup
Steven Matz (6-1, 2.81) vs. Tanner Roark (3-3, 2.89) – 1:05 p.m, MASN/MLB Network
With Harvey’s current struggles, you can make the case that Steven Matz is the second best pitcher on the Mets right now behind Noah Syndergaard. Even though Matz has had some forearm soreness, he had a strong outing against the Brewers. He went seven innings, gave up two runs on three hits, struck out eight, and walked no one on 88 pitches in the win.
The 24-year-old left-hander has won six consecutive outings and has held the opposition to two runs or fewer in six consecutive outings. So far this month, he has a 1.74 ERA in three outings. Last season, Matz made his debut on June 28 against the Reds. He went 4-0 in six starts with a 2.27 ERA. He did not face the Washington Nationals one time.
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In his last start against the Marlins, Tanner Roark picked up his first win of the season against Miami. The right-hander went 6.2 innings, gave up one run on six hits, struck out seven, and walked two on 108 pitches to pick up his third win of the season.
Against Miami, he threw 72 of the 108 pitches for strikes despite only throwing 14 first pitch strikes to the 27 batters he faced. The only mistake Roark made in that game was the home run hit my Marcell Ozuna in the bottom of the fourth. Despite having a 3.96 ERA in four starts this month, he has 23 strikeouts, which is seven off of his total from April.
Next: 3 Takeaways From The Nats 8-2 Win Over The Marlins
Roark has never lost a game against the Mets as he is 5-0 in 11 career appearances (six starts). Back in 2014, he was 4-0 with a 3.04 ERA against New York. Curtis Granderson is 6-for-16 (.375) with four doubles and two RBI’s in his career against Roark.
Prediction: Even though Roark bounced back in his last outing, I think the Washington Nationals’ unfamiliarity with Matz will play a factor in this game. With Matz on a roll, I expect the Mets to get the win and avoid the sweep in this series.