Nationals: How Long Will Jonathan Papelbon Last As Closer?

Despite having a strong outing last night, how long will Jonathan Papelbon last as the Nationals’ closer? 

Nationals closer Jonathan Papelbon came in for the ninth inning in a non-save situation Tuesday night and posted a scoreless inning to end the game and give Washington the win. So why the headline? Well, Papelbon may have gotten the job done this time around, but not without a few bumps along the way. The leadoff double Odubel Herrera was able to smoke off of him was not the first time he’s run into trouble.

Papelbon has made 22 appearances in 2016 and he has a 1.246 WHIP (walks plus hits per innings pitched). That is the highest number of any pitcher on the Nats roster that has made a relief appearance at any point this season. Essentially, Papelbon is putting more runners on base than any other reliever in the bullpen.

Sure, he boasts a 2.91 ERA and has only allowed one home run on the year. However, he’s a fly ball pitcher that doesn’t induce many swings-and-misses or even generate much weak contact (only 9.2 percent of all batted balls have been classified as soft hit speed according to Fangraphs). While he may be the most established closer on the Nationals’ roster, that does not necessarily mean Papelbon is the best man for the job going forward.

Now before you go filing away this piece as just another anti-Papelbon article, just hear me out. I actually defended Papelbon during Spring Training and asserted that he was the most capable pitcher on the team to handle ninth inning duties. Two months into the season, however, the Nats’ bullpen has emerged as one of the best in the league.

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Gone are doubts about Shawn Kelley’s ability to stay healthy. Felipe Rivero and Blake Treinen have formed a lethal tandem to kill late-inning rallies. Oliver Perez and Yusmeiro Petit have proved to be invaluable offseason additions. Even Sammy Solis has a 1.93 ERA. Papelbon may have Dusty Baker’s favor for now, but a few more blown saves down the stretch could push someone else into the closer role.

Even if Dusty doesn’t make the call, the front office just might. FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported today that the Nationals will be exploring the trade market for a reliever before the trade deadline. With the rest of the bullpen doing its part, the most obvious choice for a demotion would be none other than Jonathan Papelbon.

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Were Papelbon’s two blown saves this season a momentary setback on his way to a dominant season, or are they only a hint at what’s to come? Only time will tell, but the numbers seem to suggest the latter. The only question that remains is how many games the Nats will allow Papelbon to lose before finding his replacement.