Washington Nationals vs. Phillies Series Preview (6/10-6/12)

The Washington Nationals begin a six game homestand tonight when they take on the Philadelphia Phillies

This week, the Washington Nationals (36-24) concluded their nine game road trip by taking two out of three games against the Chicago White Sox. Even though the offense only managed one run last night, they still scored 22 runs in the series and they continue to lead the NL East (2.5 games up on the Mets).

Tonight, the Nats begin a six game homestand at Nats Park when they take on the Philadelphia Phillies (29-31). The last time these two teams faced each other, the Nats swept the Phillies (May 30- June 1) and won the last two games without Bryce Harper. Harper injured his right knee after being hit by a Jeremy Hellickson pitch in the first game.

Since that series, Pete Mackanin’s club went 3-4 against the Brewers and the Cubs at home. But, they have dropped in the standings as they are now in fourth place in the NL East and seven games behind the Nats.

The Phillies did make news last night when they picked outfielder Mickey Moniak with the first pick in the MLB Draft. It was the first time that an outfielder was selected with the top pick since the Nats took Harper back in 2010.

As for the current Major League team, they have scored the second fewest runs in all of baseball (192) and have the lowest on-base percentage (.286). Despite those poor offensive numbers, Odubel Herrera continues to shine. The center fielder is hitting .318 with 38 walks, a .422 on-base percentage, and eight stolen bases. Third baseman Maikel Franco continues to lead the team in home runs (ten) and RBI’s (32).

The starting pitching took a hit today when Vincent Velasquez, who was acquired in the Ken Giles deal this offseason, was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a right biceps strain. Velasquez only threw two pitches against the Cubs on Wednesday before leaving the game.

In the bullpen, closer Jeanmar Gomez has 19 saves in 20 chances this year. The Nats had success against Philadelphia’s eighth inning reliever, Hector Neris, in the last series when they scored three runs on May 30. The Phillies’ bullpen has given up 30 home runs this year (tied for second in the National League).

Before the series starts tonight, here is my breakdown of the pitching matchups in this series:

Next: Tonight's Matchup

Jeremy Hellickson (4-3, 3.80 ERA) vs. Stephen Strasburg (9-0, 2.85) – 7:05 p.m ET, broadcast on MASN/WUSA9

The Nats will be facing Hellickson for the fourth time in as many series tonight. In his last start against the Brewers on June 4, Hellickson went five innings, gave up three runs on seven hits, struck out four, and walked three in a no-decision.

One of the things that were surprising about that start from Hellickson was his lack of control. It was only the third time in his last ten starts that he had three walks or more. In the month of May, he was 2-2 with a 3.47 ERA in six outings. His 69 strikeouts are third in the Phillies’ rotation (second in walks).

This season, Hellickson is 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA in three starts against the Nats. Back on May 30, he went seven innings, gave up a solo home run on three hits, and struck out eight on only 79 pitches, but he got a no-decision. Daniel Murphy is 3-for-9 (.333) against Hellickson with a RBI in his career.

Even though Strasburg did not pick up his tenth win on Saturday, he still remained undefeated. Against the Reds, he went 5.1 innings, gave up three runs on four hits, struck out ten, and walked two in a no-decision.

In that Reds outing, Strasburg struggled coming back from the first of two rain delays. He gave up a two-run home run to Joey Votto in the sixth that gave the Reds a 3-2 lead. He also had to leave the game in that inning because of cramping in his calf.

Against the Phillies, Strasburg is 7-2 with a 2.78 ERA in 16 career starts. Maikel Franco is 3-for-7 (.429) with a home run and two RBI’s vs. Strasburg in his career.

Prediction: The one question going into this game is how healthy is Strasburg? If he is healthy, I will take the Nats to win a close pitcher’s duel and get Strasburg that tenth win. Plus, it is tough to go against a pitcher who has four double-digit strikeout games in his last six starts.

Next: Tomorrow's Matchup

Aaron Nola (5-4, 2.65) vs. Tanner Roark (4-4. 3.21) – 12:05 p.m, MASN/MLBN/WUSA9

While Nola has alternated wins and losses in his last five games, he has still been effective. In his last outing against the Brewers on June 5, he went six innings, gave up eight hits, struck out nine, and walked two in a victory.

Over his last eight starts, the 23-year-old right-hander has given up no more than three runs in any game. You have to go back to April 16 to the last time he allowed more than three runs (seven against the Nats). Nola leads the Phillies in strikeouts (85) and opponents’ batting average (.212).

Nola has faced the Washington Nationals in each of the first three series. While he is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA in those outings, he has only given up nine runs. But, he has surrendered three home runs. Bryce Harper is 6-for-10 (.600) against Nola with two home runs and four RBI’s against Nola.

It was a short outing for Roark in his last start against the Reds on June 5. Roark only went three innings, gave up five runs on seven hits, struck out three, and walked one. The Nats would end up tying the game in the top of the fourth, including Dusty Baker using Stephen Drew to pinch-hit for Roark.

Sunday’s no-decision was the first time that Roark gave up more than three runs in an outing since May 14 against the Marlins. He had only four groundball outs, which is the lowest total he’s had in a start this year.

However, he has had some success against the Phillies this season. In two starts, he is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and has held Philadelphia’s offense to a .133 batting average. Ryan Howard is 4-for-15 (.267) against Roark with one home run and six RBI’s.

Prediction: Even though I expect Roark to have a much better outing than the start he had on Sunday, Nola is on a roll right now where runs are hard to come by unless you are hitting the home run. I like the Phillies to get the win even though Nola is due for a loss if he follows the win-loss pattern.

Next: Sunday's Matchup