Washington Nationals: Five Reasons They Will Lose NLDS

As the NLDS gets underway Friday, here are some warning signs as the Washington Nationals face the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Washington Nationals ready themselves for a long October run by hopefully beating the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Divisional Series.

After a 95-win season and the NL East divisional crown, the Nats have home field advantage for this round. If, somehow the San Francisco Giants upset the Chicago Cubs in the other NLDS, the pivotal Game’s 1 and 7 would be in DC. For those of you dreaming big, the World Series starts at the home of the American League champions.

Making their third postseason trip in the last five years, this is the year the Nationals are a lock to advance for the first time since 1981, right?

Not so fast, my friend.

Best-of-five series are finicky by design. With the compactness of a race to three wins, early mistakes magnify. Your time to recover shortens. The pressure of the other team sitting on two wins makes the best managers in the game gamble and make mistakes.

Imagine if the Baltimore Orioles had to face the Toronto Blue Jays the next day after Buck Showalter failed to use Zach Britton. Even the smartest minds in the game can turn into mush under the harsh spotlight that is playoff baseball.

Washington carries advantages this time around. Aside from that all-important home field, the Dodgers starting pitching is inexperience and Max Scherzer will get two starts, if needed, at the friendly confines of Nationals Park.

Yet, no team is perfect. There are plenty of reasons the Nats may fall short again. Here are five.

INJURIES

No team is healthy this time of year.

Baseball being the grinding marathon we all love has players banged up and tired by the time October rolls around. For the Washington Nationals, they wish it was that simple.

There will be no Stephen Strasburg against the Dodgers. If you think they will not miss the 16-game winner this weekend, check how short your fingernails are Tuesday night. Likely to start Game 3, if healthy, in Los Angeles, his departure throws how Dust Baker handles the bullpen into a different light. After Scherzer and Tanner Roark, they have no starter who can give you six innings like he could have.

If Washington advances, we may see Strasburg in the NLCS, which is not the case with Wilson Ramos.

Although Jose Lobaton and Pedro Severino are good players on their own right, to lose Ramos’ offense and have the entire pitching staff adjust on the fly to catchers they are not fully comfortable with is a tough task. The younger pitchers will know Severino from their days in Syracuse. Severino, however, has yet to catch in 20 Major League games.

All this and we are assuming Daniel Murphy will be healed from his left glute injury and Bryce Harper’s shoulder holds out.

RISP, MOVE THAT LINE

This one is a common reason why teams lose in the postseason. When there are runners on second and third, they are stranded too often.

With the better starting pitching and exceptional bullpens, the opportunity to produce runs shrinks this time of year. Smart teams can try to manufacture runs by stealing or taking an extra base, but after a bad game where a team may go 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position, it will get in your head.

This season, the Nationals slash line in RISP situations was .259/.350/.414. With a gross OPS of .764, that adjusts to an OPS+ of 103 or three percent above average. If there are two outs, the slash line is .225/.339/.379. The OPS is .718 and adjusts to an OPS+ of 103. Again, right around average.

The good news is the Nationals are a solid offensive unit. The bad news is with Harper in a funk, there is no one hitter who will cause a lack of sleep at the Dodgers’ hotel. Trea Turner can set the table but, at least once a game, he will bat behind the pitcher.

You will hear RISP mentioned on television. If the Nats cannot take advantage of their chances, the season ends next week.

NO PATIENCE AT THE PLATE

One thing we have noticed down the stretch is the Washington Nationals are hacking as they come to the plate.

It is so important this time of year to wear out the other pitcher. Although the Dodgers’ bullpen is good as a whole, it is vital to have at least one game where they need to get 15 outs to win a game. The best way to do that is make Clayton Kershaw and company throw strikes and layoff bad pitches.

Look how successful the Boston Red Sox have been in decent years making pitchers grind in every at-bat. If the last month is any sign, the Nats are not being patient and are letting pitchers dictate the game on their terms.

With the added pressure of the playoffs, anything the Nats hitters can do to disrupt a pitcher’s timing and patience will tip the balance in their favor. Recently, they have not.

If they cannot slow the game down to a pace of their choosing, momentum will swing the wrong way. The team does little to defend the strike zone. If we do not see long, tense at-bats in the first two games, the Nationals will be in trouble. Take pitches.

GIO GONZALEZ’S START

You hate to say one player makes the difference between winning and golf season, but Gio Gonzalez’s bad September will cause a few headaches in the organization and adult beverage purchases in the District.

Forget his ability to get left-handed hitters out. When you throw 90 and flat and have a vacant look behind the eyes, there is reason to be concerned.

How awful was September? In five starts, Gonzalez went 1-2 with an ERA of 7.43. He pitched under five innings a game, working 23 innings and allowing 34 hits. Those 25 strikeouts are fool’s gold. When the NL made contact off him, the BABIP was .444.

If you think he is a master of lefties, guess again. They hit .247 against him. When making contact, the BABIP is .298. Not awful numbers, but not the stuff of legends either. Righties hit .267, .327 when putting the ball in play.

If Strasburg could start, Gonzalez would be bullpen bound with Joe Ross healthy. Instead he will throw around five heartburn inducing innings. When he wins, the ERA is 2.55. Those losses though are brutal as his ERA balloons to 7.22.

Watch the body language. A quick start can fall apart fast.