Washington Nationals: Projecting the Lineup Statistics

As we get closer to the regular season, how good is the Washington Nationals offense? A look at top computer models gives a peek. Hint: They are good.

The Washington Nationals expect to have a lethal offense.

After last year’s record-setting 4.71 runs-per-game, 95-wins and a National League East title, how do they follow up?

As we did last week with the starting pitchers, District on Deck shows you what the computers predict the offense will do over the next six months. Using the three methods listed at FanGraphs, we will see if the Nats can keep the pace up or of they come down from last year’s highs.

FanGraphs posts Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections—considered the gold standard—along with Steamer projections and their own smoothed Depth Charts prediction.

The Steamer numbers are based on a system invented by two baseball and number-crunching high school students from Brooklyn. All three projections are plausible guesses, but the math behind them are solid enough to be taken seriously.

As a team, the website does not think they will fare as well with run scoring. Still, with a projection of 4.67 runs-per-game, those numbers are good. In the NL, only the Chicago Cubs and Colorado Rockies project higher.

Predicted to win 91, the big difference in the team models come with pitching. Without an established closer—and a different read on Tanner Roark, the Nats are expected to allow 4.11 a game and have a positive run differential of 95. A drop from 151 in 2016.

Again, the Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers have a higher projected difference while the New York Mets have a modeled difference of 40.

With those caveats in mind, here is how the stating offense figures to do this year, presented in the order of where they are likely to hit.

Come October, we will laugh at these or cry.

TREA TURNER

AVG PROJECTION: .282-.301 OBP PROJECTION: .331-.347 SLG PROJECTION: .445-459 WAR ESTIMATE: 3.5-3.9

As with Tanner Roark last week, the computers struggle with younger players and assessing proper value to minor league values.

With Trea Turner, the numbers above are not horrible, but the models discount his ability to hit home runs and steal bases. Remember, he slugged 13 in 73 games last year while stealing 33. The models have him over 145ish games with 15 homers and 35-40 swipes.

That fails to pass the smell test. Yes, Turner played out of his mind last year, but it seems impossible to double his playing time and getting the same counting statistics. Doubling his 3.3 WAR is unlikely, but the projections of 3.5 to 3.9 seem too conservative.

Expect there to be regression with a full load of a season, but do not figure Turner to hit 40-50 points lower in batting average and 20-30 down in on-base percentage.

Turner offers both power and speed from the leadoff hole. A walk could turn into a double with his speed. With the lineup behind him, NL pitchers will throw strikes.

Based on this spring, the bat is in good shape. He will have the green light to steal and give pitchers fits over the course of a long season. The WAR will likely exceed 4.0. If it hits 5.0, Turner will be in the MVP mix.

ADAM EATON

AVG PROJECTION: .286-.288 OBP PROJECTION: .355-.357 SLG PROJECTION: .412-421 WAR ESTIMATE: 2.5-2.8

All three models think Adam Eaton will match his slash line of .284/.362/.428 reasonably well his first year in Washington. Scoring a 6.0 FanGraph’s WAR is another story.

The projections do not like his move from right field to center. With a score of 18.0 in the FanGraph’s formula for defensive WAR, all three now paint him in negative territory between -1.1 to -2.2.

Out of the leadoff spot with the Nats, they project a drop in plate appearances and counting numbers, but the averages remain in line with last year. They project a healthy 13-16 stolen bases but a drop in home runs from 14 to nine or ten.

For a player who topped 150 games the last two years, none of the projections have Eaton over 149. ZiPS gives him that with Depth Charts at 142 and Steamer at 144. Over 150 games is probable unless of an injury. At 28, rest is not a priority.

If his glove work is better than expected, his WAR score will increase. Perhaps not as high as last year’s 6.0, but somewhere between 2014 and 2015 between 3.1 and 3.7.

Expect Eaton to be himself his first year in DC.

BRYCE HARPER

AVG PROJECTION: .280-285 OBP PROJECTION: .406-.413 SLG PROJECTION: .521-.531 WAR ESTIMATE: 4.4-5.3

There are two schools of thought with what the models say for Bryce Harper. Last year was an anomaly; we know. Yet, so was his monster MVP year of 2015.

Overall, those projections put him between the two. As with others, they have Harper playing between 138 and 150 games. He played 153 in 2015 and 147 last year. The home run projection ranges from ZiPS 29 to Depth Charts 31.

If you have seen how the ball flies off his bat this spring, a 30-homer season is conservative. Harper takes pitches in West Palm Beach he swung at last fall. When he makes contact, the swing is fluid and free. Yet until his MVP season, he was never a 30-home-run hitter.

If the batting average models are correct, again, that is his second-highest mark. All three projections say Harper draws over 100 walks and strikeouts. They also feel he will steal between 14-15 bases. An optimistic number considering his spot in the order.

A WAR of 5.0 gets you into the MVP conversation. The smart bet is his home run and 88-94 RBI projections are a touch low and Harper gives the Nationals a productive season.

Trying to put specific predictions for any one player with counting numbers is tough. Although everyone wishes a return to 2015, the projected numbers above are good.

DANIEL MURPHY

AVG PROJECTION: .304-.317 OBP PROJECTION: .345-.362 SLG PROJECTION: .479-.482 WAR ESTIMATE: 2.5-2.8

In unison, the projections look at Daniel Murphy’s 2016 and laugh.

Sure, expecting Murphy to get a hit in all 19 games against the Mets again is not realistic. But, to drop his overall batting average between 30 and 43 points is a stretch.

Remember, all models spit out their numbers with certain weights given to years prior. With Citi Field as Murphy’s home for his career until last year, that hurt him. The Mets offense—when healthy—was built differently than Washington. The computers find it difficult to smooth career years.

Last year was that for Murphy and then some.

Although the projections come closer with doubles—Steamer says 37, while Depth Charts is the high at 41—all three have him around 15 home runs. If true, that is a double-digit drop. The computers look at his 2015 with the Mets and say those are his targets.

Provided his hamstring stays healthy those drops are too much. His limited at-bats for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic are not helping him, but suggesting his slugging percentage falls 100 points from last year is too much.

Murphy does not get the attention of Harper and Turner. Again, he should fly under the radar and be a key cog in the lineup.

ANTHONY RENDON

AVG PROJECTION: .270-.276 OBP PROJECTION: .345-.354 SLG PROJECTION: .443-.450 WAR ESTIMATE: 3.3-3.8

The models call for Anthony Rendon to copy his 2016 performance and that is fine.

Depth Charts and Steamer like his batting average to go higher with all three saying his on-base and slugging are within the margin of error. They expect—even with a lower number of games played—for him to match 20 home runs and 85 RBI.

Now 26, Rendon is in the prime years of his career. Sandwiched between Murphy and Jayson Werth, he will get pitches to hit. As with Murphy, Rendon does not grab the spotlight of the bigger stars and goes unnoticed.

The drop in WAR estimate has to do with his glove, not the bat. Rendon plays a solid third base and there is no reason he should drop in production with the leather. Paired last year with Danny Espinosa on the left side of the infield last year, they added roughly four wins.

Although Turner’s defense at short is unknown, early returns are good. As he becomes comfortable at short, Turner and Rendon will be a formidable pair and stronger than the right side.

The computers like Rendon and so do we. He figures to have a strong 2017.

JAYSON WERTH

AVG PROJECTION: .232-.257 OBP PROJECTION: .313-.343 SLG PROJECTION: .386-.414 WAR ESTIMATE: -0.4-0.6

The projections for Jayson Werth are all over the place. At 38, they are.

Except for the WAR estimate, the percentages are around what Werth did at the plate last year. His slash line of .244/.335/.417 are modeled here. All three projections see a tail off of extra-base hits and that is realistic.

Still, Werth takes several pitches and held his own hitting second last year. An Adjusted OPS+ of 94 at 37 is league-average. If he gave the Nationals that again, they would take it and run.

Werth is in decline. The 28 doubles and 21 home runs on the stat sheet last year will drop. His home run estimate is 14-16 while the doubles range from 21-24. Those models are fair. If he exceeds his 2016 totals, he will have done a giant stroke of business.

With three bench players capable of playing the outfield—Chris Heisey, Adam Lind and either Michael Taylor or Brian Goodwin—expect Dusty Baker to give Werth as much rest as he wants.

His value, as Werth winds down his career, is not production but in the clubhouse. He wants this year to be special. What we do not hear is as important as on the field. Although every locker room has its moments, the less we know the better.

MATT WIETERS

AVG PROJECTION: .248-.251 OBP PROJECTION: .301-.307 SLG PROJECTION: .410-.411 WAR ESTIMATE: 1.1-1.8

Wilson Ramos, he is not but Matt Wieters is not a bad player.

All three models see an increase in batting average from last year’s .243 with the Baltimore Orioles. ZiPS has his on-base percentage a hair lower than last down one point to .301, but Depth Charts and Steamer call for increases. That single point difference in slugging percentage with the computers is one or two points above 2016.

We can argue if Wieters is worth the money. If the Nats get a catcher who can throw out runners while hitting 17 homers, then it is a yes.

Remember, Wieters can opt-out after 2017. If he thinks he can top $10 million a year on the open market, then he has to produce now. He has to handle a pitching staff that features flame-throwers and others relying on movement and pitch framing to be successful.

After recovering from Tommy John surgery in 2014, Wieters had a bounce back year in 2016. He may not hit the 200 home runs he did during his salad years, but he will hold his own at the plate switching leagues.

With Jose Lobaton figuring to catch around 40-50 games, Wieters may hit his projected percentages without hitting his counting stats. If he is healthy and produces at his 2016 level, then the Nats thank him and take their chances on his future.

At 31 after the season, they could do worse if he stays and either promote Pedro Severino if he goes or find a cheaper arm.