Washington Nationals: 5 to watch in Cubs’ visit to D.C.

The Washington Nationals begin a four-game series against the Chicago Cubs tonight; here are five players to keep an eye on.

The Washington Nationals are coming off of a weekend set against the Cincinnati Reds in which they took two of three. The two wins were both very exciting, a come from behind walk-off victory and an 18 run game. However, the lone loss was a game to forget, with Tanner Roark allowing six total runs in the first two innings.

The Chicago Cubs, the defending World Series champions, have not been the same this year. After winning their first title in 108 years, the Cubs have come out sluggish in 2017. It’s almost July, and they’re only one game above .500.

After Kyle Schwarber missed most of 2016 with a severe knee injury and miraculously returned to hit .412 in the World Series, he has hit below the Mendoza line in 2017 and was recently sent to AAA. Schwarber is not the only struggling Cub; several of their stars from 2016 haven’t fared well in 2017.

The Nats struggled against the Cubs in 2016, going 2-5. Although the Cubs easily won the season series, the Nats played them much closer at home, winning two of the three matchups at Nationals Park.

Both teams are currently dealing with various injuries, specifically in the outfield. Out of the two teams’ combined six Opening Day outfielders, only one is currently on the roster.

The Nats Opening Day outfield was Jayson Werth, Adam Eaton, and Bryce Harper. Werth and Eaton are both currently on the Disabled List. The Cubs Opening Day outfield was Schwarber, Jason Heyward, and Ben Zobrist. As mentioned earlier, Schwarber is currently in AAA, while Heyward and Zobrist are both on the Disabled List.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at five key players for what should be an entertaining series and a possible postseason preview.

Bryce Harper

The Cubs’ game plan was extremely obvious when the Nats visited Wrigley Field last May: do not let Bryce Harper do any damage. Harper walked 13 times in the four-game set, including six times in the series finale.

Although it was frustrating for Nats fans, it was an effective strategy for the Cubs; they swept the series and Harper never looked the same in 2016. It is worth noting that Harper was followed by Zimmerman last season, who went 2-for-19 in that series. Zimmerman is a much improved player this year, so the Cubs may have to pitch to Harper.

Harper has returned to form this season, batting .315 with 18 homers in 68 games. Although he has slowed down a bit over the last month, he is still one of the most dangerous hitters in the league.

Harper has performed well against the Cubs throughout his career, batting .263 with five homers in 26 games. The stat that really stands out is his .469 on-base percentage against the Cubs. While this can be largely attributed to his record-setting series last May, it is an incredible stat. Of the teams that he has played at least ten games against, his on-base percentage against the Cubs in second-highest, behind only the Padres.

Harper is a career .240 hitter against the four probable starters for this series (Eddie Butler, Jake Arrieta, John Lackey, and Jon Lester). However, that is heavily weighed down by a career 0-for-9 against Lackey. Harper is a .375 hitter against the other three probable starters combined. Perhaps Harper could get a much-needed day off against Lackey; he has started every game since June 4.

It will be interesting to see how Harper fares against the defending champs and how they choose to pitch against him, that is, if they choose to pitch to him at all.

Jake Arrieta

After pitching to a 3.10 ERA, the tenth lowest in the National League, and finishing ninth in NL Cy Young voting in 2016, Jake Arrieta has struggled mightily in 2017. In 15 games, he has racked up a 4.36 ERA, which is 42nd in the majors.

Over the last few years, Arrieta has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the league. In 2015, he pitched to a 1.77 ERA and won the NL Cy Young Award. He even posted a 0.75 ERA in 15 starts after the All-Star Break.

Then he dominated last season, leading the Cubs to their first World Series win in 108 years. However, he has not been the same this year.

A possible explanation for Arrieta’s decline is his workload over the last two seasons. In 2015 and 2016 combined, he pitched 468.1 innings (including postseason).

Another sign of his workload catching up to him other than his loss of effectiveness is a dip in velocity. According to Brooks Baseball, in April of 2016, his average fastball velocity was 94.9 mph. This April, his average fastball velocity was only 92.5 mph, over 2 mph slower than last year.

The Nats have several players with a solid history against Arrieta. Harper, Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rendon, and Ryan Zimmerman are all batting at least .250 with at least ten plate appearances.

Arrieta’s 4.93 ERA in eight games against the Nats ranks fifth-worst of all teams he’s faced at least five times. A few runs against Arrieta on Tuesday could go a long way, as he will be opposed by Max Scherzer.

Max Scherzer

Opposing Arrieta on Tuesday night will be Max Scherzer. This matchup features the last two National League Cy Young Award winners. Scherzer has picked up right where he left off after winning the Cy Young Award last season, leading the majors with a 2.09 ERA in 15 starts.

Scherzer’s last start was one of the most dominant of his career. His first six outs were all via the strikeout, and he brought a no-hitter into the eighth. He ended up throwing 121 pitches over eight innings, so it will be interesting to see how he fares on Tuesday. Most pitchers would most likely struggle after throwing 121 pitches in their previous outing, but Scherzer is a completely different animal.

Not many players on the Cubs’ active roster have fared well against Scherzer, which is to be expected. Anthony Rizzo appears to have Scherzer’s number, batting .375 with a homer in eight at-bats, but nobody else has really done much. Another notable Cub against Scherzer is the reigning NL MVP, Kris Bryant, who is 0-for-8 career.

June has been a phenomenal month for Scherzer so far. He has pitched to a 0.89 ERA in four starts, allowing just three earned runs on 12 hits. He has also gone at least seven innings in each start this month.

For a team with bullpen issues, pitching deep into games is extremely helpful. It means that the bullpen has fewer outs to get, but it also allows the bullpen to rest and reset.

Tuesday night will be Scherzer’s last start this month, and it should be fun to watch him attempt to close out June with yet another dominant outing.

Anthony Rizzo

Anthony Rizzo is statistically the greatest leadoff hitter of all time. At least that’s what he’d like you to believe. Rizzo led off his first two games as the Cubs’ leadoff hitter with a homer.

His homers have since slowed down a bit, but he has still been very successful while batting leadoff. In 11 games, he is batting .333 with four homers and nine runs scored. While he doesn’t possess the speed that a typical leadoff hitter possesses, he has done an excellent job of getting on base. He currently has a .400 on-base percentage as a leadoff hitter.

Rizzo has played well against the Nats throughout his career. He has hit .316 with nine homers in 35 games. Of the teams that he has played at least ten games against, his batting average against the Nats is second-highest, behind only the Pirates.

Rizzo has been in the news quite a bit lately, for more than just his leadoff homers. Last Monday, he collided with Padres catcher Austin Hedges during a play at the plate. There is a rule specifically designed to prevent collisions at the plate, and Rizzo clearly violated it by colliding with Hedges despite the fact that there was an open lane to the plate.

MLB supposedly informed teams that Rizzo violated the slide rule, but would not be disciplined because they did not believe that he intended to hurt Hedges. It will be interesting to see how MLB handles future violations of the slide rule now that they have established an arbitrary line based on intent.

Rizzo has enjoyed success against the Nats in the past and the Cubs need him to stay hot if they want to win the series.