Washington Nationals: 5 story lines for Marlins tilt
The Washington Nationals turn their focus on the Miami Marlins the next four nights. What story lines should you follow this week?
The Washington Nationals return home jubilant after taking two of three from the defending world champion Chicago Cubs.
Home for the next nine games, the Nats face the Miami Marlins for a rare four-game mid-week tilt. The fish hooked the Nats for two last week at Marlins Park, but Washington will get players back from the disabled list along with Max Scherzer over the next four days. If all goes well, Gio Gonzalez will return from paternity leave too.
For the Marlins, this is their last chance to turn the National League East into a race.
A delay with the sale of the team prevented the fire sale that will come the first chance the new ownership group gets. Who buys the club or when is shrouded in a mystery. Jeffery Loria still owns the Marlins and they are functioning at their usual level.
With 10 games left between the division rivals, Miami holds a 5-4 edge in the standings. But, the Nats have outscored the Marlins 40-37. Of the nine games played, just three have been in Washington. Seven of the remaining 10 are home. Think the home team grabs an advantage.
Since the All-Star Break, the Nats played six games at the friendly confines of Nationals Park. They played four in Cincinnati, swung through the west coast and visited Miami and Chicago. In the 21 post-break games, 15 were on the road.
The team gets to sleep in their own beds and play a mostly normal schedule before their last west coast swing. It helps.
So, as we watch this latest divisional series, here are five story lines to watch.
MIAMI CAN’T CATCH WASHINGTON
With Washington taking two of three at Wrigley Field, the Marlins lost precious ground in the NL East. The lead sits at 13 games.
Yes, with a sweep the Fish can be within nine of the Nats. If the reverse happens, the lead is 17. Any Washington win makes a difficult road nearly impossible.
There are times this year where the Nats struggle. Mental mistakes, a lack of fundamentals and fatigue set in right before the All-Star Break. When you add the endless line of injuries, Washington played like a tired team.
As the Nats led 6-0 early with Max Scherzer on the hill who would have thought he would leave with a bad neck and the team would lose 7-6. A loss Wednesday had some of you in a panic. Yet, those telltale signs of a team in trouble were not there. They did not beat themselves.
When you consider that 10 players are on the disabled list and Syracuse filled nearly half the active roster, it is amazing Washington has not struggled more.
Two bad games at the old Orange Bowl does not a collapse make. There has to be a chaser to match the team in trouble. Miami is sitting at 52-55. Not a record of a team about to chase down a division title. This ceased being a cat-and-mouse game in May. Washington’s biggest lead of the year was 14 and that followed Gonzalez’s near no-hitter last Monday.
Of the 52 games left for the Nats, only 10 come against teams with winning records. When they play a winning team, they are 18-11.
THE RETURN OF MAD MAX
The sight of Max Scherzer pulling himself out of Tuesday’s start in Miami scared the daylights out of the District and Northern Virginia along with a tiny portion of Staten Island.
Until he takes the hill, the success of Scherzer’s visit to a chiropractor to fix his neck remains a mystery. Forget the division race, as that is settled, any chance of October glory rests on him being healthy.
As intense of a competitor as they make, Scherzer’s ability to adjust on the fly is outstanding. So is his ability to read his body. The nights when he read Mike Maddux and Dusty Baker the riot act on a mound visit are tempered with knowing when to shut it down.
Other pitchers would work through those neck spasms, only to make them worse and further jeopardize their health. Not Scherzer. He knows his limits.
The injury was not about mechanics but comfort. If Scherzer goes out Monday and stalks the mound, he is in good shape. In the middle of a career-defining season, the Nats need him comfortable. Monday is a big test.
With a starting rotation off-kilter, seven strong innings from Scherzer will make things better. While we wait for Stephen Strasburg to return, having Scherzer return will settle a few nerves.
MICHAEL A. TAYLOR’S RETURN
Although he has struggled on his rehab assignment, Michael Taylor is expected to return as soon as Monday back to the Washington Nationals.
An oblique injury has kept the centerfielder out of the lineup since July 6. The Nats miss his speed and ability to steal bases. In the middle of his best season, Taylor’s ability to swipe 10 bases and slash extra-base hits made the Adam Eaton ACL tear at least tolerable. Add his range and arm in the outfield and he has more than held his own.
When matched with Howie Kendrick in the lineup, the pair will have the same capability to create runs with speed as Trea Turner and Eaton have. Turner should be back sometime this month and the trio will cause nightmares with their fast legs.
Washington has become too reliant on the home run game. They can overlook Taylor’s strikeouts to use his short swing to their advantage. When he reaches, he is productive. In 72 games, he scored 40 runs. Two years ago, he scored 49 over 138. A huge difference.
The return of Taylor marks the first of three starters expected back in the lineup in August. Jayson Werth is rehabbing and Turner will once he is cleared. Kendrick was the only bat Washington found on the trade market in July. Yet, the return of these three will feel like a new trade.
It starts with Taylor.
SHUTTING DOWN THE FISHY BATS
Although the starting pitching is nothing to write home about, the Miami Marlins offense is incredible.
Dee Gordon has 40 stolen bases. Giancarlo Stanton is swatting balls into orbit with 36 homers. Marcell Ozuna carries a slash line of .307/.365/.549 heading into Sunday with24 homers. Christian Yelich matches Stanton and Ozuna with 24 doubles.
No matter who is on the hill, these Fish bite. Although not as potent as the Nats offense, the Marlins are third in the NL in hits with 989 and in batting average at .266 before their win Sunday in Atlanta. If their pitching was any good, Miami would be a strong threat. With a team ERA of 4.63, they are 52-57.
If Washington is to end what little playoff hopes the Marlins have, they must contain the offense the best Washington can. As strong as Stanton and Ozuna are, Miami is a singles machine that struggles to get extra-base hits.
Although 183 doubles sound awesome, the Marlins are 12th in the NL. Miami is 11th in triples with 17 and ninth with 131 home runs. They have played Washington well, but the Nats have games where they score at will.
A series of singles and a lack of extra-base hits is what you want to see. Miami is dead last drawing walks. Hard to score runs when you cannot string together good innings.
THE IMPORTANCE OF SAMMY SOLIS
With Enny Romero on the disabled list for an indefinite period, Sammy Solis moves to fill his role.
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This year has been a struggle for Solis. Stints on the disabled list mixed with a nightmare performance on the mound makes for a season he longs to forget. But, as the team works around a massive amount of injuries, the Nats need him to regain form.
Saturday at Wrigley Field gave positive answers.
Closing out Washington’s 7-4 loss to the Cubs, Solis turned in his best performance of the year. He needed to get five outs and did. Four coming on swinging strikeouts. When you can fool the white-hot Willson Contreras, you are doing something right.
Solis is not as bad as his 11.81 ERA, but his struggles are real. His FIP is 6.23 and has never owned good control.
The good news is his injuries have kept his left arm “fresh” for the stretch drive. Romero’s troubles are forearm related, and the severity remains unknown. If the Nats need a sixth-inning reliever, or someone to keep a game close later, Solis will help fill the role.
Last year, he pitched well around a 4.6 BB/9 rate. If healthy, there is no reason why he cannot do it again.