Washington Nationals: 5 storylines to watch at Miller Park

This weekend, the Washington Nationals are in Milwaukee to play a four game series against the Brewers. Here are 5 storylines to keep an eye on

The Washington Nationals (81-51) are starting to get healthy as Trea Turner and Jayson Werth returned to the starting lineup this week. Against one of the hottest teams in baseball, the Nats swept the Miami Marlins and decreased their magic number to clinch the NL East to 16 games.

After a 5-2 homestand, the Nats are back on the road for seven games beginning with a four game series tonight at Miller Park against the Milwaukee Brewers (69-64). Last month, the Nats won two of three against Milwaukee at Nats Park, including a game in where they hit four home runs in the first inning.

Right now, the Brewers are in the mix for both the NL Central division title and the wild card race. Craig Counsell’s club is 3.5 games behind the Cubs in the central and three behind Colorado in the wild card.

When you look at Milwaukee’s offense, they are second in the National League in home runs with 191. They have four players with 20+ home runs, including first baseman Eric Thames (28). However, since the All-Star break, Milwaukee has scored the fewest runs in the NL (153).

On the mound, the Brewers don’t have an ace at the top of the rotation, but Zach Davies is tied for the league lead in wins (15) and Jimmy Nelson has the third most strikeouts in the NL since the All-Star break (63).

In the bullpen, the Brewers have one of the most underrated closers in baseball in Corey Knebel. Another reliever to watch is rookie Josh Hader, who has 17 strikeouts over 11.1 innings this month.

Let’s take a look at the four pitching matchups for the series

Tonight: Gio Gonzalez (13-5, 2.40 ERA) vs. Zach Davies (15-7, 3.91) – 8:10 p.m ET, broadcast on MASN2

Tomorrow: Tanner Roark (11-8, 4.63) vs. Jimmy Nelson (10-6, 3.75) – 8:10 p.m, MASN2

Saturday: TBA (Erick Fedde)? vs. Brandon Woodruff (1-1, 1.62) – 7:10 p.m, MASN2

Sunday: Max Scherzer (13-5, 2.21) vs. Matt Garza (6-8, 4.77) – 2:10 p.m, MASN2

Now let’s look at my five storylines for this series, starting with something that will take place across the league on Friday

Rosters begin to expand

Starting on Friday, every team can expand their rosters to up to 40 players for the final month of the season. Of course, you don’t have to have exactly 40 players up, but the teams do have that option.

For the Washington Nationals, their Triple-A and Double-A affiliates will not be participating in the playoffs, so those players could come up at any point. In fact, you could see Rafael Bautista, Andrew Stevenson, and Adrian Sanchez soon as they were sent down to Triple-A Syracuse this week.

Another reliever to watch could be Enny Romero. He has been on a rehab assignment since August 17 for Syracuse. He recently threw back-to-back outings on August 24-25, so his return can’t be too far off. However, he hasn’t struck out anyone in three of his last four outings, so it is something to monitor.

Since Saturday’s starter has yet to be announced, the pitcher who would be on turn is Erick Fedde, who threw in Sunday’s doubleheader against the Mets. He would be facing yet another tough lineup that can crush the ball out of the ballpark .

Overall, the expanded roster will be a good thing for Dusty Baker and the Washington Nationals. It will allow the coaching staff to rest guys like Anthony Rendon and Daniel Murphy plus you can save some of the key bullpen arms for the postseason.

The Nats won’t likely call up any of their top prospects like a Victor Robles, so the excitement won’t be as high with the expanded roster. With that being said, it only gives the team more depth and adding some of these injured players back like Trea Turner and Jayson Werth are great roster additions in their own right.

Pitching matchup of the week

By far, the best pitching matchup in this series is tonight’s game between Gio Gonzalez and Zach Davies. Gonzalez and Davies have been two of the best pitchers in the National League since the All-Star break.

First, let’s start with Davies. He had a bad outing against the Minnesota Twins on August 10, but the 24-year-old right-hander has responded since then. Over his last three starts (19.2 innings), he has given up a total of one earned run.

Now, if you look at Davies’ numbers since the break, he is 5-3 with a 2.28 ERA in nine starts. Teams are hitting .236 against him and he’s only allowed two home runs. While he isn’t going to strike many hitters out (105 in 156.2 innings), hitters hit groundballs against him 48% of the time (Fangraphs).

Back on July 25 at Nats Park, Davies went 7.2 innings, gave up three hits, struck out seven, and walked three in a win. In fact, only two Washington Nationals have driven in a run against him in their careers (Murphy and Rendon).

No one would’ve predicted that Davies would lead the NL in wins at this point in the season, but he’s had a good year. The Brewers will need him in September if they want to make that push to the postseason.

As for Gonzalez, he continues to put himself in the Cy Young conversation with his dominant pitching. In his last six starts, the left-hander has allowed a total of five runs and he is 5-0 in those outings.

There are many numbers that you can use to talk about Gonzalez’s dominance, but one number to take a look at is the innings. His option will vest for next season when he throws over 180 for the year and he has pitched at least into the sixth inning in every game since May 3 against the Diamondbacks.

Gonzalez also pitched against Milwaukee in their series at Nats Park. On July 26, he went seven innings, gave up two runs on five hits, struck out eight, and walked one in a no-decision. Domingo Santana is 2-for-6 against him with a pair of home runs and three RBI’s.

Both of these teams will throw talented pitchers in this series, but Gonzalez-Davies should be the best matchup of the week considering how good these two have pitched as of late.

Travis Shaw a surprise in Milwaukee

When you talk about the Brewers offense, names such as Ryan Braun and Eric Thames will likely be the first two names that come to mind. However, third baseman Travis Shaw is flying under the radar for the good season that he is having.

In 117 games, Shaw has a slash line of .282/.355/.538 with 27 home runs and 83 RBI’s. After two seasons in Boston, the Red Sox dealt Shaw to Milwaukee for reliever Tyler Thornburg. Milwaukee has gotten the better end of that deal considering Thornburg hasn’t pitched all year due to injury.

Shaw does have eight home runs since the All-Star break (leads the team), but he is hitting only .248 and has struck out 42 times. On the plus side, 15 of his 35 hits have been for extra bases. When he does make contact, it goes a long way.

The Washington Nationals saw that first hand last month when Shaw was 4-for-8 with two home runs and four RBI’s in the three game series. Those home runs came against Edwin Jackson and Max Scherzer.

However, one thing to keep in mind regarding Shaw is that he was out of the lineup yesterday and will probably miss tonight’s game due to a foot injury. If Milwaukee is without him for an extended period of time, it will hurt their offense:

Do the speed games return?

The Washington Nationals got Trea Turner back in the starting lineup this week after he missed about two months with a wrist injury. Without Turner, the team wasn’t as aggressive at stealing bases and you could tell it hurt their offense.

If you look at the stats from this month, the Nats do have 16 stolen bases, which is three behind the league lead. However, take a look at who has the bulk of those steals during that time period.

Five of the stolen bases are from Wilmer Difo, who won’t get as much playing time at shortstop now that Turner is back. He did play right field on Tuesday night. Three of those steals are from Brian Goodwin, who is currently on the disabled list. Turner did steal a base in yesterday’s 4-0 win.

Now that Turner is back, the stolen bases or as I like to call them when I tweet, “speed games”, should be back in full effect. If that is the case, then it shouldn’t be a big deal who Baker hits second. The reason for that is if Turner steals a base, then all the number two hitter has to do is move Turner to third to set up a RBI opportunity.

True, the Nats are great at hitting home runs when everyone is back in the lineup. However, as Ron Juckett talked about yesterday, small ball can win games in October. That one stolen base could lead to a run that can decide a postseason game.

It will take a while for Turner to find his rhythm at the plate, but his speed is going to bring an extra dimension to an already great offense.