Washington Nationals: Is Gio Gonzalez lucky or good?

Gio Gonzalez owns a 2.40 ERA this season for the Washington Nationals but his FIP tells a different story. Which number is for real and what will he do in October?

The Washington Nationals pitching staff has finally settled in for the season. Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg are healthy and dominant, and the fortified pen has put the end of games behind lock and key.

Through all the rotations up and down, Gio Gonzalez has been the one consistent presence throughout the season. Gonzalez owns a sterling 2.40 ERA over 26 starts this season, including a 1.03 ERA in August. After a 2017 decline, the near 32-year-old has put together a masterful campaign.

Gonzalez’s ERA is good for third in baseball this season, behind only Clayton Kershaw and Scherzer. But his FIP is an unsightly 3.86, which ranks 20th in baseball. The 1.46 run difference between his ERA and his FIP is the second-largest gap in the majors.

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FIP examines the four outcomes a pitcher can control – strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and home runs – because whether a batted ball is caught or falls is much less predictive of pitcher’s true talents. Gonzalez just so happens to struggle with strikeouts, walks, homers, and HBP’s. When you compare his disappointing 2016 and productive 2017, Gonzalez is essentially posting the same season:

He is the exact same guy! If anything, based on his strikeouts and walks, he is a little worse than last year. His contact split is also very comparable to his career line; 28.3 percent of Gonzalez’s batted balls allowed have been hard hit, which is actually a tick up from his 27.7 percent career number. His softly and medium-hit rates are similar to his career numbers too.

Gonzalez has made some changes this season to support his improved stat line. He is throwing more offspeed pitches in 2017 to combat his diminished fastball velocity. His curveball is also over two miles per hour slower than last year, which has held opponents to a mere .154 batting average. Righties own just a .664 OPS against Gonzalez this year; lefties have managed a .440 mark and are yet to leave the yard against him. And with runners on base, Gonzalez has stepped up to another level, holding opponents to a paltry .483 OPS. Only Scherzer has been better in such situations this year.

Gonzalez is instrumental to Washington, and he is currently one of the best run-preventers in the game. But is it sustainable?

Even the statistical models can’t decide. Gonzalez has a 2.9 WAR according to Fangraphs, but a league-leading 6.6 WAR if you look at Baseball Reference. How can there be nearly a four-win difference in baseball’s catch-all statistic depending on the website you use? That’s the difference between Scherzer and Gerrit Cole (3.99 ERA).

Well, it’s because Fangraphs uses FIP, while Baseball Reference calculates with ERA. The problem with Fangraphs’ model is that WAR, unlike FIP, is not a predictive statistic. WAR should sum up your season to date. Gonzalez may be pitching as if he should have a 3.86 ERA, but he doesn’t – it’s 2.40. And that run prevention should be reflected in his WAR. Those runs didn’t cross the plate. Considering his durability and miniscule ERA, he should be near the top of the leaderboard.

But when discussing how he will pitch through September and into the playoffs, Fangraphs is much more indicative. He has gotten by in spite of his low K-rate and rising walks all year. Earlier in August, Gonzalez tossed six scoreless innings against the Angels, despite just four strikeouts to three walks. That’s a lot of balls in play, of which only two fell in for hits. The more balls rocket off the bat, the more likely something bad happens, especially when you consider the Nats’ defensive issues. Gio has walked the tight rope for too long.

The Nationals’ road to the World Series likely goes through Chicago and Los Angeles. The Dodgers are loaded and looking to break the wins record. And the Cubs have the best OPS in the NL since the All-Star break. Dusty Baker tends to let his starters work through trouble, and Gonzalez has been up to the task. But Baker must keep Gonzalez on a short leash this postseason. One at-bat can swing a playoff series, and Gonzalez seems like a house of cards waiting to crumble.

Next: Storylines for Brewers tilt

It’s been a fun ride to this point for us Gio fans, but let’s not kid ourselves. Gonzalez is the same exact pitcher he has always been.

All statistics courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball Reference.