Washington Nationals: Joe Blanton on track heading towards October

Joe Blanton looked like a failed signing early in the season, but his improved recent performance gives the Washington Nationals an even deeper bullpen.

After Washington Nationals GM Mike Rizzo whiffed on any available big-name free agent closers this past offseason, he dove into the bargain bin and dug out Joe Blanton on a one-year, $4 million deal. And even though Blanton – a failed former starter – was entering his age-36 season, a reliever with a 2.65 ERA from 2015-16 still seemed like a solid pickup.

It was not. Blanton was a dumpster fire from the start; his ERA quickly climbed to 11 in April, and did not sneak below eight until after July 4.

Blanton’s real bug-a-boo was the home run. Through mid-July, the burly right-hander’s 7.77 ERA was backed by nine home runs in just 24.1 innings pitched. He was suffering from Shawn Kelley-itis, and could not be trusted with any type of lead.

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Take a step back to look at Blanton’s entire career. As he shifted from the starting rotation to the bullpen, so has his pitching identity. Blanton’s groundball rate often pushed 50 percent as a starter, while his fly ball number hovered in the low thirties. Now, he is one of the most fly ball-heavy pitchers in baseball – he would rank in the top-10 in fly ball rate if he had enough innings this season) – which also makes him home run prone.

And after those first half struggles in 2017, Blanton has managed to flip the script without compromising his approach.

Since July 21, Blanton has allowed just one home run (to Mets top prospect Amed Rosario). Over those 15.1 innings, he owns 3.52 ERA, and his strikeout and walk rates are in line with his dominant Dodgers season from a year ago. Blanton’s 1.30 WHIP is still higher than the Nationals would like, but his 2.89 FIP over the last two months is indicative of a changed pitcher.

Blanton is still surrendering his fair share of fly balls; the real difference is the direction in which the fly balls are going. Through July 20, opposing hitters were pulling the ball over 45 percent of the time against Blanton. High fly ball rates and even higher pull rates do not mix well.

But recently, more of Blanton’s pitches have been taken to center and right field. Blanton’s pull rate is down nearly 13 percent. Even though his hard-hit number has only decreased slightly, his pitch location is finally taking advantage of the biggest part of the ballpark. Those fly balls that were landing in the seats are now dying in an outfielder’s glove.

Ironically, Blanton’s disastrous first half has turned into a positive for the Nationals. Rizzo was forced to revamp his bullpen, so he acquired Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson, and Brian Kintzler in trade deadline moves. Those three are clearly the backbone of the pen now, but Blanton has emerged as a nice complimentary piece down the stretch.

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Combine those four arms with the recently returned Enny Romero, and the Nationals may have turned their biggest weakness into a postseason strength.

All statistics courtesy of Fangraphs. Contract information courtesy of Spotrac.

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