Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg back in Cy Young conversation
With the dominant second half Stephen Strasburg has had, the Washington Nationals pitcher should be in the Cy Young conversation
Despite Stephen Strasburg’s scoreless inning streak being snapped at 35 Sunday night, his dominance for the Washington Nationals in the second half has been fun to watch. The national audience got to see that first hand on ESPN Sunday when he gave up one run and struck out over eight over six innings in a win.
While Strasburg missed almost a month with nerve impingement in his right elbow (July 19-August 27), his second half numbers have been eye popping. In his last eight starts, he is 5-1 with an ERA of 0.72 and has 62 strikeouts to 11 walks in 50 innings.
During the month of September, Strasburg has 26 strikeouts, which is tied for the third most in the National League with Jon Gray (Rockies) and Aaron Nola (Phillies). The only two pitchers in the NL with more strikeouts are Gerrit Cole of the Pirates (30) and Robbie Ray of the Arizona Diamondbacks (36).
When looking at these numbers, it got me thinking back to Strasburg’s second half back in 2015. True, the Nats didn’t make the postseason, but his numbers got me thinking he’s one of the elite pitchers when healthy on his game.
Over those last 10 starts, he went 6-2 with a 1.90 ERA and had 92 strikeouts to eight walks in 66.1 innings. In that stretch, the strikeouts were more prominent since he had five double-digit strikeout games (four straight in September).
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Since the beginning of the season, Strasburg has been throwing out of the stretch and has looked to cut down on the amount of pitches he throws per game. In the second half, he has averaged 14.78 pitches per inning, which is the lowest on the Washington Nationals (Gio Gonzalez is second – 16.15).
Even with the change in his delivery mechanics, Strasburg is still up there with the strikeout leaders in the game. He’s ten K’s away from his second 200+ strikeout season of his career (2014) and he’s fourth in the NL at strikeouts per nine (10.5).
One pitch that has been great for Strasburg during this stretch is his changeup. According to Brooks Baseball, teams have a .089 batting average against that pitch with four base hits and 24 strikeouts. If you look at his second half in 2015, that pitch was just as dominant (.094).
If Strasburg hadn’t missed a month, you could make the argument he is a top three Cy Young candidate this year. That’s saying something considering the talent that’s in the NL and in his own rotation with Max Scherzer and Gonzalez.
This stretch of eight games is the best he’s looked in two years and that includes the first half of last season when he started 12-0. It is tough to use WAR as a great indicator for pitchers, but his 5.8 WAR is fourth in the NL and he has the best FIP (fielding independent pitching) than anyone in the game (2.78) according to Baseball Reference.
If the Washington Nationals are going to make a deep postseason run, then Strasburg has to be elite. In the first year of his $175 million deal, he’s lived up to the regular season expectations. However, he has yet to win a postseason game in a Nats uniform. That will put immense pressure on him.
Before the All-Star break, there were a lot of concerns around the way Strasburg had been pitching and it culminated with a bad game against the Braves on July 8 when he went just three innings. During our DoDcast with Byron Kerr of MASN, I asked him if there was any worry about Strasburg. Kerr said no and he ended up being right:
“He’s such a veteran now. He feels like one of the older guys and has more of a calmness about him, “said Kerr at the time about Strasburg
Yes, Strasburg went on the disabled list a couple weeks prior to that injury, but Kerr was on point about not being concerned about the right-hander. There is a different vibe around him this year, especially after the excitement he showed in the NL East clinching game on September 10.
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If Strasburg is dominant in his last two or three starts of the regular season, he can get back in the Cy Young conversation. He won’t win the award, but his dominant pitching could lead to the team getting the ultimate prize at the end of the year. He’s peaking at the right time and it is fun to watch.