Washington Nationals: Examining Tanner Roark’s second-half rebound

Tanner Roark looked done for the Washington Nationals at the All-Star Break. But since mid-July, he has re-captured his old self.

For nearly a half-decade, Tanner Roark has been the gift that the Cristian Guzman trade keeps on giving for the Washington Nationals.

Roark has been an invaluable and flexible piece of the rotation since his call-up in 2013, providing incredible production as the staff’s fourth or fifth arm (2.85 ERA or better as a starter in 2014 and 2016).

But, 2017 began differently. The normally steady 30-year-old entered the All-Star break with a 5.27 ERA. In June, Roark pitched particularly poorly, allowing six long balls and a 8.31 ERA across six lackluster starts. It was not so much a ‘what’s wrong with Tanner Roark’ question, but more like ‘this was bound to happen eventually.’

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Yet, since the mid-summer classic, Roark has re-captured his groove. He is mowing through lineups like the pitcher with multiple five WAR seasons. Roark owns a 3.18 ERA since mid-July, and has pitched more effectively with each passing month. His 2.84 ERA in three September outings bodes well for Washington as the franchise looks to win its first postseason series.

While Roark has not changed his approach much on the mound, the difference in the results has been quite stark. Roark’s strikeout rate has jumped from 7.2 K/9 before the break to 9.8 K/9 currently, which would be a career-high mark. He has countered the increase in K’s with a reduction in walks – his 2.9 BB/9 number is more in line with his past rates.

Opposing hitters are also having a harder time squaring up Roark in the second half. He is generating more swings and misses, a product of throwing less pitches in the strike zone. He has made a living going low, and batters are taking the bait.

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Opponents own just a .204 batting average – seventh in baseball – against Roark since the All-Star break, a far cry from the .278 number beforehand.

His hard hit percentage allowed has also taken a significant dip.

Batters were making hard contact nearly 30 percent of the time, with 45 percent of balls in play directed towards the pull side. Since the break, opponents are hitting the ball hard just 22 percent of the time, with a 37 percent pull rate. Hard contact and high pull rates are a disastrous combination for a pitcher.

And Roark is not simply taking advantage of the weak NL East during his run of dominance. Five second-half starts have come against top-10 offensive teams (Houston, Colorado, Chicago Cubs, Arizona, and Cincinnati), and he has combined for a 3.00 ERA in such contests. Home runs are still a problem (23 allowed overall, 10 since the break), but the Nationals are 8-3 in Roark’s last 11 starts.

Roark is likely slated to start Game 4 of the NLDS. Even if Washington is trailing 2-1 in the series heading into that game, expect Roark to still take the ball.

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Max Scherzer has never started a game on three days rest, and with his recent injury bouts, it’s unlikely manager Dusty Baker would want to expose his ace. While he is no Scherzer or Stephen Strasburg, Roark has proven himself to plenty reliable on the mound. He is more than just a surprise story; the strikeouts are there to back him up, and he has the stuff to take over in October.

Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference.