Washington Nationals: 5 reasons they will win their NLDS

The Washington Nationals are favorites to with their National League Divisional Series. Here are five reasons they will to the Chicago Cubs.

Imagine a scenario late on Columbus Day where the Washington Nationals are celebrating at Wrigley Field.

Yep, picture—if you will—the Nats sweep the Chicago Cubs and have several days off before playing in the franchise’s first National League Championship Series since 1981. All the doubters and the haters must eat their words about Washington. For at least a few days.

Story time is over.

Although a sweep in the NL Divisional Series is unlikely, the Nats beating the Cubs is not far-fetched. This team is built for a deep October run. Really.

There will be times over the weekend where you will be tempted to throw things at your television until you remember how much you paid for it. It is said playoff baseball is a Shakespearian tragedy in seven acts. Well, this version of King Lear can run five and pull you through an emotional wringer more than any pay-per-view wrestling night.

Washington can win this series. Those 97 regular-season wins include two-of-three at Wrigley. Plus, the band is back together again, well, mostly.

Since Wilmer Difo crept back to the dugout as the Los Angeles Dodgers mobbed Clayton Kershaw last year, the Nats focus shifted to advancing in October. If the Cubs score seven-or-eight runs out of the gate and play perfect baseball, there is not a thing you can do.

Chances are that is not happening. What will happen will shorten your fingernails and thin the hair on the head. That is playoff baseball.

Here are five reasons the Nats will make this October different and win.

CY TIMES THREE

It helps when the Nats can toss three Cy Young candidates out over the first three games.

Whether Max Scherzer or Stephen Strasburg starts Game 1, the other will go Saturday in Game 2 and Gio Gonzalez should get the call for Game 3 in Chicago. All three won 15 games with an ERA under 3.00.

Yes, the Cubs have Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester. Remember, the Cubs have plenty of miles on those arms from the last long two seasons. Jose Quintana will help, but Jake Arrieta’s legs are in question. As good as Chicago’s starters are, the Nats are better.

If he pitches Game 4, Tanner Roark has layoff experience and will not be as nervous. Plus, he is from the Chicagoland area. He will be ready.

Although every playoff game turns into a bullpen affair, the Nats have four starters capable of keeping Washington in a game for six innings. Because the front three are strong, they can hold the door shut on the Cubs offense.

The front four went 59-30 in 121 starts. Considering all the injuries, combined they missed 11 possible starts. Reliable and fantastic.

Pitching wins championships is not a cliché. Washington has four guys who can control a start and frustrate the other team. It matters.

KABOOM CITY

Ten Nats hitters hit double-digit homers. Four slammed over 20. Ryan Zimmerman mashed 36 taters.

Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon and Daniel Murphy slashed 30-plus doubles. A healthy Bryce Harper would top 30 on both counts if he did not miss a quarter of the season. As good as the Cubs offense is, the Nats can produce right with them.

Washington set a franchise record with 819 runs and 215 home runs in 2017. Their 5.06 runs-per-game trails the vaunted 1994 Montreal Expos, but not by much as that team scored 5.13 every night.

Since Harper’s MVP season in 2015, the total offense produces nearly a run more per game. That year, the Nats scored 4.34. If he has his swing timing back, he can carry the Nats through on his back.

When Michael Taylor pops 19 that is an advantage. Even Matt Wieters gave you 10 and he hit .225.

Four hitters ended the regular season with an OPS over .900. Taylor’s was .806. There are no easy outs outside of the pitcher’s spot. Oh, Adam Lind had four pinch-hit homers too.

As a team, Washington will force Chicago pitchers into mistakes. If the Nats match those five-plus runs a night, they win.

THE LAW FIRM

It makes the starting pitchers job easier to know any lead they have through six holds the rest of the night.

Since Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson and Brandon Kintzler arrived in Washington, the bullpen became the anchor. At 6-1, 23 saves and an ERA well under 3.00. The WHIP around 1.000 is not shabby either.

If you go back to how the Kansas City Royals won consecutive American League championships, they built a bullpen—Madson was there—that gave teams no hope after the sixth inning. Judging by early returns, the Nats have copied the formula with success.

Momentum and intangibles play a part of any short series. A bad bobble or hung pitch makes a difference. The adjustment from a regular-season marathon to a playoff sprint magnifies any errors and adds to confidence of the better team.

Washington’s 45-29 second-half record was no accident. The big three did their job.

Yes, the Cubs did it last year by experimenting while leaning heavily on rental closer Aroldis Chapman. Wade Davis is not Chapman.

In meaningful games, the “Law Firm” successfully closed Washington’s case every time out. Remember, they want this as much as you do.

HUNGER GAMES

The goal from day one this year was to advance.

Last year left a bitter taste in everyone’s mouth and the perceived mistakes are fixed. The Nats are built for the moment.

After 162 games, you understand this team does not beat itself. Washington allowed only 51 unearned runs. Chicago surrendered 59. Their defensive efficiency is third in the NL. Pitchers were not asked often to work around errors and needless four-out innings.

If there is one thing even Dusty Baker’s harshest critics should give him credit for, it is how even the team plays. No losing streak topped four. Despite the mountain of injuries—including the ones unknown that leak out come November—Washington rarely beat themselves.

As the team matured, they thrived.

Sure, the division revealed itself as terrible. The NL East will look different next year with all four opponents vastly cleaning house to a degree. Washington’s success is deeper than pounding the New York Mets as they have winning records against every NL playoff team.

The Nats come into the 2017 postseason with something to prove. Four trips to the playoffs in six years is an amazing accomplishment, but they know four quick exits shows waste.

It helps Chicago cannot use Clayton Kershaw on one-day rest either.