Washington Nationals: 5 x-factors in NLDS vs. Cubs

The Washington Nationals begin the National League Division Series against the Chicago Cubs tomorrow; here are five potential x-factors.

Tomorrow night, the Washington Nationals will begin the National League Division Series against the Chicago Cubs. It appears to be an excellent matchup, featuring two of the National League’s top teams.

The Nats and Cubs will oppose each other in the NLDS and are certainly two of the top teams in the National League, but they each have very different backgrounds and mindsets entering the postseason.

Everyone knows what the Cubs did last year. The so-called “lovable losers” had not won a World Series in 108 years, but finally ended the drought in a riveting series against the Cleveland Indians. Despite their youth, the Cubs are one of the best and most experienced postseason teams, which makes them a tough opponent in a short series.

The Nats, on the other hand, have not won a postseason series since returning to DC in 2005. This is their fourth trip to the postseason, but they have been excruciatingly eliminated in the first round in each of their three prior postseason appearances.

The two teams had seven regular season matchups this year, with the Nats winning four of the seven. The season series was very closely contested, which has been an obvious trend over the past two seasons.

Since 2016, the Nats and Cubs have played 14 regular season games, with 11 of them being decided by three runs or less. Since the games are typically so closely contested, one player could make an enormous impact. The NLDS is a short best-of-five series, so one play could drastically change the series.

With that in mind, it becomes obvious that there are several x-factors from each team that could single-handedly change the series. Without further ado, let’s take a look at a few possible x-factors.

Trea Turner

With the colder weather in October, the ball typically does not carry as well as in the middle of the summer. Because of this, it is sometimes necessary to manufacture runs. Fortunately for the Nats, Trea Turner can manufacture runs with the best of them.

Turner missed a couple months due to a fractured wrist, suffered against the Cubs in late June, but still managed to put together a dynamic season. In just 98 games, he stole 46 bases, a new Nationals record. He was also just 14 stolen bases behind Dee Gordon, the MLB-leader, despite playing in 60 fewer games.

In addition to being an elite base-stealer, Turner excels at getting on base. This season, he had a .338 on-base percentage and has a .348 career on-base percentage. An essential aspect of being a good base-stealer is getting on base often, which Turner has mastered.

The postseason can be daunting, but it did not phase Turner last year. He was a catalyst in the Nats’ potent offense in last year’s NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers, batting .318 with two stolen bases and five RBI’s.

If he is able to have a similar series against the Cubs this year, Turner will be able to manufacture runs, which could be crucial against the Cubs’ tough pitching staff.

The Nats’ offense struggled throughout much of September, so they may need to manufacture runs against the Cubs. Fortunately, Trea Turner is the perfect candidate to do just that.

Jake Arrieta

Pitching and defense win games in the postseason, and the Cubs have a great pitching staff, but a key member is currently pitching at less than full strength. Jake Arrieta has been dealing with a hamstring issue for much of the second half, which has certainly affected him.

Arrieta pitched to a 6.10 ERA in three starts in September, including allowing five runs in three innings in his final start of the season. Because of his hamstring issue, he has been pushed back to pitch game four, if necessary.

When on, Arrieta is an elite starter. However, he has struggled at times due to various injuries and ailments.

Over the past few seasons, Arrieta has thrown the most innings in the majors and the second-most isn’t even close. This overuse has caused a bit of fatigue, which has led to struggles. Between the overuse and his hamstring issue, he has shown a tendency to be somewhat erratic at times.

If Arrieta is pitching in this series, it means that one team is a win away from winning the series and the other team is trying to force a game five. How Arrieta performs will be very interesting and could have an enormous impact on the outcome of the series.

If Arrieta continues to perform like he did in September, it could turn out to be a dagger to the Cubs’ season.

Matt Albers

The postseason is a completely different beast than the regular season, and managers must utilize their bullpens accordingly. Last October, we saw Terry Francona use Andrew Miller in many different situations, which contributed to their deep postseason run.

However, Sean Doolittle, the Nats’ closer, is unable to throw more than one inning due to a history of arm injuries, which is where Matt Albers comes into play.

After not making the team out of Spring Training, Albers got an opportunity due to injuries and has not looked back. The 34-year-old reliever pitched to a 1.62 ERA in 63 games this season, and even recorded two saves in the process.

His 1.62 ERA also ranked third-best among qualified NL relievers; not too shabby for a guy who got cut in Spring Training.

Now Albers is arguably the Nats’ most important reliever. In a bullpen, featuring Doolittle, Ryan Madson, and Brandon Kintzler, Albers is the x-factor.

Albers is exceptionally versatile, as he succeeded in every role from long-man to closer this season. This makes him an invaluable asset in the postseason, when all defined bullpen roles go out the window.

If Albers is able to fill an Andrew Miller-type role, it allows Kintzler, Madson, and Doolittle to remain in the seventh, eighth, and ninth, which has worked tremendously well. Although Albers may not look the part, he is one of the most important players on the Nationals’ roster.

Anthony Rizzo

Last year, the Cubs’ thoughts on Dexter Fowler were, “you go, we go.” Unfortunately for them, Fowler has since joined the St. Louis Cardinals.

Now, the Cubs need Anthony Rizzo to assume that role. Obviously, Rizzo is nowhere near as fast as Fowler and cannot manufacture runs like he can, but the Cubs need Rizzo to produce in a different way. They have now made it to two consecutive postseasons, and Rizzo has been a crucial part of their offense both years.

In 2015, Rizzo struggled throughout the postseason, batting just .188. The Cubs went on a good run, but eventually lost to the New York Mets in the NLCS.

Rizzo had a much different postseason in 2016, batting .277 and leading them to their first World Series win in 108 years. If the Cubs are going to beat the Nationals in the NLDS, they need Rizzo to produce like the middle-of-the-lineup threat that he is.

When the Cubs were struggling in the first half of the regular season, Joe Maddon experimented with the batting order. At one point, Rizzo was the leadoff hitter and reached base safely to begin his first seven games in the leadoff spot, including three homers. Oddly enough, this is when the Cubs began to turn things around. When Rizzo goes, the Cubs go.

Unfortunately for the Cubs, Rizzo had a bit of a weak finish to the regular season. He hit just .239 in September, went 1-for-14 in his last five games, and hit his final home run over two weeks before the end of the regular season.

The Cubs and Nats both have elite pitching staffs, so runs will be at a premium throughout the series. Rizzo plays a crucial role in the heart of the Cubs’ lineup, and must perform in order for them to score.