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Washington Nationals: Our conversation with Tom Boswell

By Drew Douglas

WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 02: Newspaper boxes stand outside the Washington Post building September 2, 2014 in Washington, DC. It was announced that Frederick Ryan has been named the new publisher of the newspaper. Ryan, a founding member of the Politico website leadership, was appointed by owner Jeffery Bezos to replace Katharine Weymouth, a member of the Graham family that owned the paper for more than eighty years. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 02: Newspaper boxes stand outside the Washington Post building September 2, 2014 in Washington, DC. It was announced that Frederick Ryan has been named the new publisher of the newspaper. Ryan, a founding member of the Politico website leadership, was appointed by owner Jeffery Bezos to replace Katharine Weymouth, a member of the Graham family that owned the paper for more than eighty years. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images) /
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Yesterday, we talked with Tom Boswell of the Washington Post about the conclusion of the 2017 season and the state of the Washington Nationals moving forward.

With the Washington Nationals‘ season now over, there are plenty of rumors and discussion surrounding the team. To get some insight on a few of these topics, I had the great opportunity of talking with Tom Boswell, a columnist for the Washington Post.

Boswell, who is regarded as the dean of Washington sports journalism, has been writing for the Post since 1969. He has also worked alongside luminaries, such as Shirley Povich, whose name adorns the Nationals Park press box.

To begin, we discussed the pain that comes with being a Washington sports fan. With the Nats’ NLDS loss, the Nats, Redskins, Capitals, and Wizards have now combined to go 69 consecutive seasons without reaching a league championship. Boswell mentioned that while Nats fans haven’t had to wait 108 years like Cubs fans (yet), there has long been collective misery throughout all of Washington sports.

Boswell also mentioned that the MLB regular season is overdetermined, meaning the best teams make the postseason 99.9% of the time. The postseason, on the other hand, is underdetermined, meaning anything can happen. This, perhaps, explains why the Nats are consistently among the best teams in the league, yet they fail to advance out of the NLDS every year.

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When asked about Stephen Strasburg, Boswell gave glowing remarks. Despite the fact that Strasburg has a reputation of being “soft”, he has actually started the 25th most games since 2012. This ranks him ahead of Felix Hernandez and David Price, and barely behind Clayton Kershaw.

Bryce Harper, meanwhile, who has the reputation of playing with his hair on fire and always being on the field, ranks 90th in games played since 2013. Strasburg is believed to never be on the field, while Harper is believed to always be on the field, but it is just the opposite.

Over the next year, Harper will be a hot topic of discussion. 2018 is his final season under contract, and he is arguably the most anticipated free agent of all-time. When asked how the Nats would fare if Harper leaves, Boswell said he believes that they would be just fine and may even be wise to let him go.

Harper is a generational talent, but will demand $400-500 million on the open market. At this price, the Nats would be committing an enormous portion of their payroll to one player. Boswell quoted Stan Kasten in saying, “money is fungible.”

In simpler terms, this means that the same $400-500 million that would go towards signing Harper can sign or extend several solid players instead. Because of this, the Nats may be better off without him. The main question if the Nats let him go would be whether or not they can replicate his presence in the middle of the lineup.

Boswell also points out that the Nats have a surplus of young outfielders ready to step in if Harper departs, including Michael Taylor, Brian Goodwin, Victor Robles, and Juan Soto.

Another key member of the Nats whose contract is expiring is Dusty Baker. Baker led the Nats to a division title in both years of his contract, but his contract has now expired. When asked if he thought Baker would return, Boswell said he thought he would.

Not many teams have as many players who are big stars, have big salaries, and have big egos as the Nats. Because of this, it can be a tough clubhouse to manage. This is exactly what makes Baker an excellent fit with the Nats.

Outside of John Farrell, there are not really any experienced managers available. If the Nats decide to let Baker go, they would likely have to hire a rookie manager. Even if that rookie manager knew all the X’s and O’s of baseball, they may struggle with the Nats because they could lose the clubhouse, as Matt Williams did in 2015. With the current state of the Nats, Boswell believes Baker is the best fit for manager.

Finally, I asked Boswell about the possibility of Doug Harris, the Nats’ vice president of player personnel, getting hired as the Braves’ GM. Boswell said that the Nats are a unique organization in today’s game because they use about 35% analytics and 65% scouting when judging players. However, most other organizations are the exact opposite.

Because of this, the Nats’ executives are well-rounded and more than capable of running an organization. The Braves are considering many candidates, but Boswell believes that they would be wise to give Harris a shot.

When you listen to the full interview below, you will also hear Boswell’s complete thoughts on Strasburg’s postseason performance and Harper’s future, among other topics.

Next: Billy Hamilton a trade target?

All of us at District on Deck thank Tom Boswell for taking the time to talk with me yesterday. Be sure to continue to read all of his great work in The Washington Post.

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