Washington Nationals: 5 candidates to fill final rotation spot

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With Joe Ross set to possibly miss all of 2018, the Washington Nationals have a hole in their rotation. Here are five possible candidates to fill that hole.

The Washington Nationals starting pitching depth took a big hit when Joe Ross‘ torn UCL required season-ending Tommy John surgery in July. In addition to missing the rest of the 2017 season, Ross may have to miss all of 2018. If he pitches at all in 2018, it will likely just be as a September call-up.

When Ross went down, Edwin Jackson received an opportunity to step up and fill the hole. While he had his moments, he was largely unsuccessful and cannot be the Nats’ fifth starter in 2018.

After taking a look at the Nats’ farm system, there are a couple pitchers who could conceivably fill the hole, but they are more likely to seek to acquire a starting pitcher.

If the Nats elect to sign a free agent to fill the hole in the rotation, there will be several great candidates. To name a few, former All-Stars such as Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish, Lance Lynn, and Michael Pineda are all pending free agents.

If the Nats elect to try their hand in the trade market, Mike Rizzo is one of the best general managers in the league. He has made several phenomenal trades, including one to acquire Ross, and could definitely make another one.

However the Nats decide to do it, they must fill the hole in their starting rotation. Without further ado, here are five candidates to do just that.

Erick Fedde

When the Nats traded away Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Dane Dunning to acquire Adam Eaton last off-season, they did so with the confidence that Erick Fedde would eventually blossom into a major league starter.

Fedde became the Nats’ top pitching prospect, and got his first shot in the big leagues in 2017. Although it did not end the way he wanted it to, the experience he had with the Nats will be beneficial moving forward.

In three starts, Fedde pitched to a 9.39 ERA. This is not a great stat, but it is a small sample size and two of his three starts came against playoff teams (the Colorado Rockies and Chicago Cubs). Those are tough lineups for any pitcher to navigate, but especially a pitcher making the first two starts of his major league career.

After his cup of coffee, Fedde was shut down for the season due to a forearm strain. Shutting him down was a great decision, especially considering his age and injury history.

If Fedde enters 2018 in the Nats’ rotation, he may not be able to finish the season. The Nats have a history of easing young pitchers back from Tommy John Surgery, e.g., Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann.

Fedde also ended up throwing less innings in 2017 than he did in 2016 due to various injuries. Between his prior Tommy John surgery and his lack of innings in 2017, he will likely have an innings limit in 2018.

If the Nats decide that Fedde will fill the hole in the rotation, they must have another starter who can take over if Fedde’s season ends early. While there could definitely be better candidates, Fedde is not a bad in-house option.

A.J. Cole

When the Nationals drafted A.J. Cole in the fourth round of the 2010 draft, they thought he had a bright future as a starter. The Oakland Athletics agreed, and acquired him in the Gio Gonzalez trade in 2011. However, the Nats still viewed him highly and re-acquired him in a 2013 trade.

Although Cole has always been viewed relatively highly, he has yet to make a significant impact at the major league level. However, he is improving, as 2017 was by far his best season.

In 2017, Cole pitched to a 3.81 ERA in 52 innings. He also showcased his versatility, pitching as both a starter and reliever. He pitched so well down the stretch that people actually thought he would make the postseason roster and were surprised when he did not.

If the Nats want to stay in-house to fill the hole in the rotation, Cole is a fine option. The experience may be better for Fedde since he appears to have more potential, but Cole does not have to pitch on an innings limit and is a better pitcher right now.

For these reasons, Cole may be the Nats’ best in-house candidate to fill the rotation. However, acquiring a starter is likely the Nats’ most reliable option.

Jake Arrieta

One of the biggest names on the free agent market this off-season will be starting pitcher Jake Arrieta. Arrieta broke into the league with the Baltimore Orioles in 2010, but struggled and was eventually traded to the Chicago Cubs.

With the Cubs, Arrieta developed into an elite starter. In 2015, he had one of the best individual seasons of all-time, pitching to a 1.77 ERA in 33 starts.

Arrieta has certainly regressed a bit since 2015, but is still among the best pitchers in the league. He pitched through various injuries, mainly a hamstring issue, in 2017, but still managed to pitch to a 3.53 ERA in 30 starts.

In addition to regular season success, Arrieta has been dominant in the postseason. In nine career postseason starts, he has pitched to a 3.08 ERA including a 0.84 ERA in two postseason starts this year.

If the Nats manage to sign Arrieta, he brings an excellent veteran presence and postseason success, two things the Nats should seek this off-season.

Although Arrieta is a terrific pitcher, there is one major concern. He has been near the top of the league in innings pitched every year for the last few years, which has led to him being one of the most used starters in the league. Because of this, there are some concerns that he will eventually burn out.

However, Arrieta’s primary pitch is his sinker. Typically, sinkerballers actually fare better when fatigued because they can get a sharper drop on their sinker. If sinkerballers pitch on too much rest, they tend to struggle because their sinkers do not drop as much.

Because of this, there is reason to believe that the additional innings will not affect Arrieta as much as they would affect most other pitchers.

Since Arrieta has been among the best pitchers in the league over the past few seasons, he will undoubtedly demand a hefty contract. However, the Nats may have an advantage over other potential suitors.

The Nats reportedly have an agreement in place for Dave Martinez to become their next manager, and he was Arrieta’s bench coach in Chicago. If Arrieta enjoyed playing for Martinez and wants to stay with him while also having a great shot to win another World Series, Washington is a perfect destination.

The Nats may deem Arrieta too expensive and find a cheaper alternative, but he could be a phenomenal addition if they manage to sign him.

Alex Cobb

Since he debuted in 2011, Alex Cobb has been one of the most consistent starters in the league. He does not get the press that he deserves since he has been in the same rotation as Chris Archer and played for the Rays, but he has been one of the best pitchers in the league.

Cobb has also been extremely successful while pitching in the powerhouse that is the American League East. Pitchers are typically more successful when they move from the American League to the National League, so Cobb could be even more impressive if he joins the Nats.

Pitching is at a premium nowadays, and any significant free agent pitcher will undoubtedly receive a large contract, but Cobb could end up being affordable. Last season, he only made $4.2 million, which is an absolute bargain for a pitcher of his stature. He definitely deserves a raise and will likely get it, but could still remain affordable.

Like Arrieta, Cobb has a tie to the Nats through Martinez. Before becoming the Cubs bench coach, Martinez was the Rays bench coach and coached Cobb in the first four seasons of his career. If Cobb enjoyed playing for Martinez, there is an incentive for him to come to the Nats.

Cobb has also only made it to the postseason once, and is now on the wrong side of 30. He is not getting any younger and likely only has a couple contracts left, so he should go to a competitor if he wants a good chance to win. If he values winning and enjoyed playing for Martinez, the Nats are a perfect fit.

While Cobb is not necessarily a big name like Arrieta, he would be an excellent fit and would certainly improve the Nats.

Lance Lynn

Following the trend of sinkerballers, Lance Lynn is an excellent candidate to fill the hole in the Nats rotation. In his six-year career, he has pitched to a microscopic 3.38 ERA.

In addition to regular season dominance, Lynn has a tremendous amount of postseason experience. The Cardinals made it to the postseason in five of his six seasons, including winning the World Series in 2011.

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Over the course of his career, Lynn has pitched in 24 postseason games. For a team that has yet to make it out of the NLDS, this could be an invaluable asset.

While the Nats will certainly take a look at several starters, they will likely do their due diligence on Lynn. When the Nats were exploring starter options around the trade deadline in 2017, they were reportedly scouting Lynn. The Nats were interested then and should remain interested now.

Lynn should also be somewhat affordable. He made $7.5 million last season and is likely due for a raise, but should remain affordable compared to other starters. His consistent regular season success and postseason experience also make him worth the money.

While Lynn never played for one of Martinez’s teams, they have been in the same division for the past three seasons. Since the Cubs and Cardinals are in the same division, Martinez had to prepare to face Lynn somewhat frequently and knows what he is capable of. Because of this, Martinez may push for the Nats to sign Lynn.

Next: Trea Turner's next chapter

With Joe Ross likely set to miss the entire 2018 season, the Nats now have a hole in their rotation. They will undoubtedly take a look at many starters throughout the off-season, but Erick Fedde, A.J. Cole, Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb, and Lance Lynn would all be great fits.

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