Washington Nationals: Forecasting the Bryce Harper sweepstakes

Washington Nationals superstar Bryce Harper has a momentous decision on his hands. Where will he play in 2019 and why? A look at the contenders.

The Washington Nationals enter the heart of the off-season with one eye on their 2018 needs and one on the next.

By this time next year, we expect Bryce Harper to be a free agent or on another club. What the Nats do over the next year determines what he will do.

Although Harper and his family are about to become millionaires many times over, his decision is more than money. Marketability, friendly atmosphere along with a franchise capable of multiple championships will play a huge factor wherever his next chapter takes him.

Oh, the money is decent too. Because Harper potentially hits free agency at the tender age of 26, you can expect his deal to average anywhere from $35 to $40 million per year. He is that rare talent who hits the open market for the entire prime of his career. The financial reward will shock the sport. Imagine if there are opt-out clauses.

Yet, there is a good chance he stays in Washington. Harper and the Nats get along in public. His agent, Scott Boras, carries an excellent relationship with Mike Rizzo and the Lerner family. Remember, Stephen Strasburg elected to stay and not test the open market.

Until a final decision is made, the ticking clock will get louder. No one from Annapolis to Virginia Beach wants to ask, but where will Harper play his home games in 2019? Here are five plausible guesses.

We hope we know the answer, but you know until the contract is signed.

THE FIELD

Unless something wacky happens, you can scratch out teams such as the Miami Marlins, San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays off the list now. They do not have the money or the winning organization Harper wants.

Yes, those three are obvious.

Powerhouse teams like the Boston Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals are not high on the shopping list either. They can afford him, but no one whispers Harper’s desire to hit at Fenway or patrol right field at Busch Stadium. The New York Mets and Bay Area teams are long shots and the Los Angeles Angels have a high payroll with shiny stars already.

Although a Boston or Houston Astros could come from nowhere to snag Harper, they would need to blow him away with an offer while not busting their own payroll. The competitive balance tax is an issue for deep-pocketed teams. Some, like Washington, more than others.

Any team becomes a playoff contender with him, but do you see the Seattle Mariners offering $400 million?

Expect Boston, St. Louis, the San Francisco Giants and maybe the Mets to ask, but they are long shots unless the deal is too good to pass up. The Angels, close to his hometown of Las Vegas, are a dark horse too.

NEW YORK YANKEES

Until they traded for Giancarlo Stanton last Saturday, the Yankees were considered a top choice for Harper. His hero, Mickey Mantle, wore the number “7”. Harper’s “34” is a tribute. Three plus four equals seven. (Enough math.)

Stanton’s arrival in the Bronx changes the equation.

Harper’s attraction to New York goes beyond Mantle, but the mystique and aura of the Yankees. His ability to add to the legend is a factor. He grew up in the Joe Torre era with October baseball at Yankee Stadium being an annual fixture. Reggie Jackson cemented his legacy even after three championships in Oakland. Alex Rodriguez became loved at the end.

Harper understands you can be a legend in New York without playing your entire career there.

Now, he would share the spotlight with Stanton and Aaron Judge. Judge plays Harper’s position and Stanton figures to DH as he ages.

The allure is there, but the spotlight is not his. Could happen, but harder to see.

If Judge comes close to his 50-plus home run barrage in 2018, then Harper’s leverage drops further. The Yankees will spend whatever they feel makes them money. Is $40 million a year smart for a team loaded with outfield talent?

If Harper wants to be a Yankee, he will. They will not turn him down.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Far from the buzz of Times Square sits a team looking to rebuild with a committed payroll of $5.3 million in 2019. In a year where Manny Machado and Harper might hit the open market, the Philadelphia Phillies have tens of millions to spend.

Odubel Herrera is the lone Phillie under a guaranteed contract. Stars such as Aaron Nola hit arbitration for the first time. Baseball Reference estimates the payroll after required contracts is around $37 million. They can woo Harper.

If this ends up being a pure money grab, the Phillies have a chance. They have a good farm system with decent pitching. With $100 million available, they can build a team around Harper in a heartbeat. Add those powerful opt-out clauses, and the risk of getting stuck on a bad team diminishes.

Philadelphia is a top market with unbridled expectations from their sports teams. If the Phillies want to build baseball’s version of the Golden State Warriors, they can. Steve Kerr might throw out a first pitch. Stephen Curry could shoot threes from second base.

Of all the individual teams in this piece, the Phillies are the longest of shots. But, they have the financial resources to throw Harper AND Machado in the same lineup.

Hard to imagine Harper drawing a standing ovation, however, on his Washington return. Ever.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Another big-market team with endless resources with championship aspirations, the Los Angeles Dodgers are almost the perfect fit.

Close to Vegas? Yep. Chance to become a megastar? It is near Hollywood. What is the holdup?

As Mike Trout can tell you, being the best player in baseball does little good on the west coast. Although the Dodgers rake in million in television money, their channel’s distribution is terrible. Millions of pay-tv users in Southern California cannot watch them.

But, they have around $50 million coming off the books after 2018. The Dodgers can afford Harper if the can restructure their debt and stay in the good financial graces of Major League Baseball. (Long and complicated story.)

The Dodgers were on Stanton’s acceptable trade list, but never seriously counteroffered once the Yankees and Marlins got close. Los Angeles expects to be active in the free agent market this winter. Because the money for Harper is there today, Saturday is another story.

Oh, the competitive balance tax. Yep. Over by millions. Adding Harper’s expected annual average value to the mix complicates things further.

As with New York if Harper wants the Dodgers then it will happen. No Darryl Strawberry swoon here. Wherever Harper lands, it will be the most researched franchise in history.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

For all the chatter of legendary franchises and super teams, there is only one club where he can become their first true legend. Your own Washington Nationals.

If he spurns the siren song of Hollywood and the Big Apple, his legend reaches Derek Jeter and Sandy Koufax overnight. The images of Harper holding the World Series trophy, officially the Commissioner’s Trophy, in a DC parade will cement the Nats as the region’s top franchise. Along with Walter Johnson, John Riggins and Joe Gibbs, Harper joins that status, sharing a towel with John Thompson.

Every place else, Harper is a hired hand. A highly paid mercenary. Not a bad thing at all. In Washington, he becomes the idol John Wall, Kirk Cousins and Alexander Ovechkin dream about.

The Nats can afford him. At some point, they will get a better television deal from MASN. Ticket sales remain strong. The surrounding talent can win a World Series.

This contract is more than money. Any team can offer the cash he wants. Harper wants to cement his legacy. Yes, the money matters, but perception and place in history mean more.  Washington has everything he wants.

If Harper leaves, he will decide what he feels is best for his family. A pennant run by the Nats this year makes leaving harder. Maybe impossible.