Washington Nationals: Will age be a factor in 2018?

The Washington Nationals figure to have one of the oldest rosters again in 2018. Will it be an issue, or are the Nats right where they need to be this year?

The Washington Nationals are sneaky old. They aren’t nearly as fossilized as the early 2010’s Yankees, but they are still old enough for initial concern.

The average National last season was 29.4 years old, which made Washington the fifth-oldest roster in the majors. Of the eight oldest teams in the league, only the Nationals qualified for the postseason. In fact, Washington was the only team to even finish above .500 among that group.

Veterans are key for postseason success, but if the whole roster is long in the tooth, the team can fall apart quickly (2017 San Francisco Giants). On the flip side, teams that are too green tend to struggle over the long haul of the 162-game season. Of the eight youngest teams in 2017, only the Red Sox managed to make the playoffs.

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A mix of vets and youngsters is key.

Of the 14 teams in between the two age extremes, eight advanced to postseason play. Take the Houston Astros, for example. The World Series champs combined stoic vets (Justin Verlander, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran) with in-their-prime stars (Jose Altuve, George Springer, Dallas Keuchel) and young studs (Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman). There is plenty of talent in that group for sure, but there is also a nice age balance across the roster.

Age is a double-edged sword for Washington, as the Nationals are slated to have an even older roster in 2018, even as the organization moves on from Jayson Werth.

Twenty-one players are seemingly locked onto the 25-man roster (the fifth starter, backup catcher, another bench player, and the final bullpen spot are still up for grabs). Those 21 players will be 29.7 years old on Opening Day, which should rise even higher as GM Mike Rizzo signs veterans to fill out the final roster.

Older players are more likely to suffer injuries, take longer to return from the disabled list, or suffer steep performance drop-offs. Max Scherzer’s neck problems could become an ongoing issue. Daniel Murphy may struggle to return to 100 percent following off-season knee surgery. Ryan Zimmerman could totally lose whatever magic he recaptured in 2017.

But the positive for the Nats is that they don’t have anyone too old. Ryan Madson is 37, but no one else will even be 34 on Opening Day. Washington doesn’t have a ton of young players (only Trea Turner and Koda Glover will be under 25), but they do have a lot of prime talent.

In 2010, J.C. Bradbury of Baseball Prospectus studied a player’s prime seasons, and established that most hitters hit their peak skills from 28-32, while pitchers’ top performances tend to occur from age 27-32. For rounding’s sake, we’ll say a player’s prime is 27-32 years old. Conveniently, that’s where the Nationals have the bulk of their players. Eleven players fall inside that age range, with almost everyone else on the edges of either side of that grouping.

So while the Nats don’t have anyone especially young, they also don’t have anyone too old. They are essentially the Goldilocks of the major leagues.

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With all their “prime players,” the Nats should be just fine age-wise in 2018, as players reach their peak or plateau at the top of their game. The age questions will begin to pile up after this season, but for now, the Nationals can rest easy as one of the most complete rosters in baseball.

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