Washington Nationals: Five potential pitfalls for 2018

The Washington Nationals are heavy favorites to return to the postseason this year, but over 162 games, plenty of issues can arise.

The Washington Nationals will enter the 2018 season as the overwhelming favorites to win the division. Barring some of the top free agents unexpectedly signing with other NL East squads, there is a good chance the Nats will finish as the only above .500 team within the division for the second straight season.

Fangraphs released its projections for the upcoming season, which are subject to change after the free agents ink their contracts. Fangraphs sees the Nats winning 91 games in 2018, with New York as the next closest NL East team with 80 wins. That 11-game difference is tied with the AL Central for the largest projected divisional gap between first and second-place squads. (For what it’s worth, Fangraphs is fairly conservative with the projections. Last year, four teams won at least 97 games. They predict only the Astros will reach 97 wins this season.)

In Vegas, oddsmakers put the Nationals as +900 to win the World Series (fifth-best odds). The rest of the division is: Mets +2500, Braves +7500, Phillies +10000, and Marlins +10000.

But even though Washington should be playing in its third straight postseason by the end of the year, there is a reason they play the games. Let’s put on our doomsday cap for a bit, if only so we can see where the Nationals at least have the slightest cracks.

Here are five potential pitfalls to watch out for this season.

Age

Recently, I wrote about the possibility of age concerns limiting the Nationals’ success in 2018. Washington fielded one of the oldest rosters last year, and barring a surprise Victor Robles appearance on Opening Day, the team will be even older this season, even without Jayson Werth in the fold.

Now, the Nats are not loaded with aging, creaky veterans, so there shouldn’t be a full-fledged panic about being too long in the tooth. Reliever Ryan Madson (37) is the only player who will even be 34 on Opening Day.

Rather, the Nats have a roster filled with prime-age players between 28-32, without many young players to bring down the age average. Still, if we are playing the glass half-empty game, it will be something to watch. Older players are more likely to get hurt than younger guys, and it takes them longer to recover and return to form following injury.

We may already be seeing the effects of age on the 2018 roster. Daniel Murphy underwent microfracture knee surgery following the 2017 season, and while GM Mike Rizzo has said he will be ready for Opening Day, Murphy was still on crutches and refused to put a timeline on his rehab at last month’s winter interview session.

There seems to be a very real chance he misses the start of the season, and it would not be surprising if Murphy is a diminished player for much of 2018. Not an ideal start for the Nats.

NL East Cinderella

None of the Mets, Phillies, Marlins, or Braves look like contenders on paper, but every year across baseball, teams unexpectedly rise from the bottom of the pack. Just last year, no one would have expected Arizona, Colorado, and Minnesota to make the playoffs with Milwaukee also knocking on the door.

After the Marlins’ outfield exodus, New York’s starting rotation is probably the most talented positional crop in the division outside of D.C. However, no one expects the Mets to stay healthy, and its not like the offense, now aided by the recently-signed Adrian Gonzalez and his 69 OPS+, figures to be part of the solution.

If any team could make the massive leap, it’s probably Philadelphia.

The Phillies won just 66 games in 2017, but the roster is dotted with plenty of young, intriguing talent. The front office has paired youngsters Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera, Rhys Hoskins, and J.P. Crawford with veteran free agent Carlos Santana to give last year’s 26th-ranked offense a much-needed boost.

On the mound, there isn’t much after Aaron Nola, but Jerad Eickhoff is only a year removed from a 33-start season with a 3.65 ERA, and Vince Velasquez has limitless potential if he can stay healthy and limit the free passes.

Philadelphia also signed Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter to shore up the bullpen. This is certainly a flawed team, but if you squint hard enough, you can see the outlines of a future contender. That future could start now if a few things break right.

Bryce Harper distraction

We aren’t even through this off-season and the 2018 signing period has already taken over baseball. Bryce Harper will lead a star-studded free agent class in 10 months, which could hang heavy over this team.

Just down the road from Nationals Park, Washington Redskins players have been fielding Kirk Cousins-related questions for two and a half years.

That’s not the reason they went 7-9 this season, but it certainly had to wear on Cousins and the team. Every pass became a litmus test for his pending contract. And when the losses began to pile up, people began to wonder about the future, rather than how to fix the current situation.

Harper is going for history. He seemingly wants a mega-deal, so he will certainly be putting plenty of pressure on himself throughout the season. Like any player, he will suffer through slumps this season, and fans and media members will murmur: “Is he worth it?” Can Harper focus with all the noise around Nats Park? Can the team focus knowing there is a good chance the best player will be in a different uniform next year?

Daniel Murphy and Gio Gonzalez are also up for free agency after the season. Several core players could be inking deals elsewhere, which could fracture the clubhouse chemistry if things go awry.

Realistically, a typical manager should not make or break your season. A good manager could add a couple wins to the ledger, while a bad one can subtract a few victories, but with the Nationals’ expected cushion, these things should not really matter in the grand scheme of 2018.

However, a truly awful manager can completely derail a season. After all, it has not been too long since Matt Williams manned the clubhouse in Washington. Bobby Valentine and the 2012 Red Sox also come to mind.

A manager with poor on-field skills coupled with even worse people skills will bring down a team. No one likes working for an incompetent boss, especially when you travel across the country and spend nearly every day with him for seven months. Williams was not equipped to handle the day-to-day pressures of a contending team, and it showed on the field.

I do not think Dave Martinez will be a disaster. He learned from Joe Maddon, who is one of the few managers who actually makes a noticeable positive impact on his club. But with any rookie manager, the possibility for implosion is there.