Washington Nationals: Mike Rizzo should hold off on a big trade

The Washington Nationals have been rumored as potential landing spots for popular trade candidates, but the more prudent move would be wait until at least the trade deadline.

You know it’s been a slow offseason when the small-market Milwaukee Brewers have been the most active team in the majors. Baseball addicts are itching for deals and signings, and Washington Nationals fans are no different. What’s going on at catcher? Who is the fifth starter? Will somebody do anything??

I say what’s the rush?

Yes, it’s already February, and yes, the Nationals have failed to use this winter to add to a core that is yet to win a playoff series. The nervous anxiety is understandable. But the Nationals have no reason to push all their chips in right now.

After all, this team did win 97 games last year while dealing with considerable injury issues.

Every single key player has returned, along with most of the backups. Daniel Murphy may start the season on the disabled list, but Wilmer Difo is a quality fill-in, especially when he is receiving regular at-bats. Difo has a career 112 OPS+ in his 88 starts, and is a better defensive middle-infielder than Murphy. It should be a relatively seamless transition if Murphy can’t go.

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Outfielders Bryce Harper, Michael Taylor, and Adam Eaton spent a combined 210 games on the DL last year. That will not happen again. In fact, Eaton is essentially a new acquisition after playing just 23 games for D.C. in 2017.  He will be a boost defensively in left field and offensively at the top of the order.

Why hurry to make a deal anyways? The Nats won the NL East by 20 games last season at less than full strength! Who is going to push them for a playoff spot?

The Mets have “bolstered” their offense with Jay Bruce, Jose Reyes, and Adrian Gonzalez. The Braves have the prospects, but it will still be Freddie Freeman or bust for Atlanta in 2018. If you squint at the Phillies’ roster hard enough, you can see the outlines of a future contender, but there are still too many holes and young players to take seriously. And the Marlins have set fire to any chance of winning for at least the rest of the decade with their latest sell-off.

All this is to say the Nationals have a stacked roster with a startling lack of competition. They should win this division with their eyes closed. Why blow up the farm system for J.T. Realmuto, Michael Fulmer, or Chris Archer when you already have a sizable cushion? Maybe Matt Wieters bounces back to league-average or A.J. Cole steps up as a serviceable fifth starter. Maybe not. But you don’t need an ace arm or stud catcher to push the division lead from 20 games to 25. The cost is simply not worth the gain at this point.

This current core of Nationals has an expiration date. Victor Robles, Juan Soto, and others are expected to be key parts of the next great Nats’ run. Sending them away would be reckless when no one is breathing down Washington’s neck today.

This doesn’t mean Mike Rizzo should stand pat forever. If Wieters continues to struggle and an NL East contender emerges, then Rizzo can give Derek Jeter a ring for Realmuto. And if Stephen Strasburg blows out his elbow, maybe packaging Victor Robles for Archer makes more sense. Maybe Ryan Zimmerman reverts into a pumpkin, or Murphy never regains his footing. But until a real issue arises, the Nationals should maintain as much flexibility as possible.

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The first six months of the season are almost meaningless for Washington this year; its all about October. Don’t empty the chamber until the team really needs that one final piece to push them over the top.