Anthony Rendon is having another solid season for the Washington Nationals, but with free agency a year away, it’s time to start exploring an extension.
Anthony Rendon homered again for the Washington Nationals on Wednesday in Philadelphia, just a day after launching the game-winner in the top of the ninth. Rendon is now slashing .299/.358/.861 with 18 home runs and a 128 wRC+ on the year.
Unfortunately, he’s also only got one more year remaining on his rookie contract. Worse, he’s represented by Scott Boras, who generally gets his clients to the open market.
Boras is definitely not shy, let’s put it that way. Expect the negotiations to begin with outsized expectations for both length of contract and average annual value.
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Scouring past extensions to gauge what Boras might demand from the Nationals, there’s no great roadmap for a Rendon extension.
Nolan Arenado extending with Colorado would set a ceiling for a possible deal though. They’re both arb-eligible for the final time in 2019, but there’s no telling if, or even when the Rockies will lock him down.
However much Josh Donaldson gets in free agency this winter could be the lower threshold for a Rendon deal, but Donaldson will be 33-years-old at the start of 2019. Coming off an injury-marred season, he may even accept a qualifying offer should Toronto extend one.
David Freese and Mike Moustakas reached the open market in recent years, but they’re inferior players. Moustakas’ career high in WAR was 3.8 in ‘15, per FanGraphs, same for Freese in ‘12.
Rendon recorded 6.4 WAR for the Nats in ‘14 and 6.8 in ‘17, while his current total sits at 4.2, with a month left to go. WAR isn’t everything, but those guys aren’t up to the Nats’ third baseman’s standard.
One potential comp to help the Nationals to establish a baseline is LA Dodger, Justin Turner. He reached free agency in advance of his age-32 season. Rendon will be 29 when his contract expires, so it’s not a perfect comp, but Turner also signed as his popularity peaked in LA, which might have jacked his price a bit.
Turner, who is represented by The Legacy Agency, signed for 4 years, $64MM. The complete annual breakdown comes to $13MM in ‘17, $12MM in ‘18, $19MM in ‘19, and $20MM in ‘20. Inflation and a longer track record of success suggest Rendon should easily surpass Turner’s numbers, both in length and AAV. Still, $19-21MM AAV might be a good place for the front office to start.
All this means that we’d probably see a five-year deal, that covers his age-30 through 35 seasons. $100MM guaranteed nets a $20MM AAV, which feels kind of low even if it compares to the numbers above. Then again, agents love those nice round numbers.
While Bryce Harper and other pending free agents may dominate the Washington Nationals offseason, they would be foolish to forget about Anthony Rendon and try to compensate him accordingly with an extension.