Washington Nationals: Let’s pump the brakes on Jefry Rodriguez

Washington Nationals starter Jefry Rodriguez may have improved in his past three starts, but don’t expect those level of performances to continue.

Lately, it may seem like Jefry Rodriguez has turned the corner for the Washington Nationals. In his first three starts, the 25-year-old Dominican gave up 15 runs in one less inning. But over his last three, he has limited his opponents to 3 earned runs in his last 16 innings.

It’s easy to imagine those improved results continuing into 2019, especially with his stuff. Rodriguez consistently hits 95 mph with his fastball, and Fangraphs scouting reports gave it a 60 future value.

Based on its velocity and movement, his fastball should be an above average offering, but it is not.

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Using data from Baseball Savant, batters have it .243 with a .512 slugging for a .389 wOBA, albeit with some good luck, against the four-seamer. This means that hitters are doing better than Freddie Freeman and his .387 wOBA against Rodriguez’s primary offering.

Unfortunately, Rodriguez’s sinking fastball hasn’t been any better. Opponents are teeing off to the tune of a .378 batting average, a .595 slugging and a .460 wOBA that surpasses Mike Trout’s league-leading .447 wOBA. Despite their horrific results, these two pitches account for 65 percent of the Nationals’ number five starter’s pitches.

Now you might think that those numbers have been dragged down by Rodriguez’s abysmal first three starts. However, his peripherals haven’t significantly improved along with his run prevention.

Using data from Fangraphs.com, Rodriguez struck out 13 and walked ten in those three starts for a 1.3 strikeout to walk ratio. In his three more recent starts, Rodriguez has struck out 9 and walked 7 for a similar 1.28 K/BB ratio.

For reference, a couple other pitchers with about a 1.3 K/BB ratio are the disappointing Lucas Giolito and Francisco Liriano, who should be a lefty specialist at this point in his career. Not flattering company.

Seemingly so far, luck has driven Rodriguez’s instant run prevention skills. His HR/9, the only meaningful peripheral that has changed, dropped from an unsustainably high 2.57 to an ace-like 0.56.

Similarly, according to Fangraphs, his BABIP has fallen from well above the team average of .289 to solidly below it. In the future, we can expect both of these numbers to settle somewhere in between the two extremes as both HR/9 and BABIP are heavily influenced by random chance and small sample sizes.

None of this is to say that Jefry Rodriguez is to be forever castigated for being a replacement level pitcher. There is hope in his curveball.

The pitch has drawn a swing and a miss on 42 percent of swings and help batters to a .108 batting average and a .189 slugging percentage. However, Rodriguez throws the pitch only 25 percent of the time. If he were to follow the lead of Lance McCullers and Rich Hill and throw his curveball closer to half of his pitches and slightly improve his fastball, Rodriguez could carve out a rotation spot.

Unless Jefry Rodriguez figures something out with his fastball, or drastically just changes his approach, don’t expect his form to stay this good.