The Washington Nationals need to add another top-tier starting pitcher this offseason. Robbie Ray may turn out to be the most logical fit into the Nationals rotation.
The Washington Nationals have been built around their starting rotation for years now and that’s not something that Mike Rizzo is looking to change now. As they hunt for help in the rotation, their former prospect Robbie Ray may end up being the most logical choice.
After the departures of Gio Gonzalez and Jeremy Hellickson, Rizzo has middle of the rotation starting pitching atop his offseason wishlist. He may even need to go out and acquire two to really make it intimidating again.
About a week ago, Site Expert Blake Finney reported the Nationals’ interest in Patrick Corbin. He happens to be the top starter on the market and also happens to be a left-hander which would likely be preferred.
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Finney’s piece was followed up by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reporting that the Nats are “seriously focused” on Corbin and ESPN’s Buster Olney reporting about the left-hander’s visit to the nation’s capital.
Corbin is likely to land a nine-figure deal, which may take the Nats out of the running for the free agent lefty, considering the other needs they need to address. On the other hand, the Nats have always been willing to invest heavily in the rotation, so the former Diamondback can’t be completely ruled out even though he may not be the best use of their resources.
Enter Robbie Ray, a familiar face and the team’s most logical target to fill the void in their rotation. Ray was originally drafted by the Nationals out of high school in 2010 and traded to Detroit in the deal that brought Doug Fister to Washington in December of 2013. Ray is still just 27 years old and is controllable for two more years through arbitration.
According to MLBTradeRumors projected arbitration salaries, Ray is projected to earn $6.1 million his second time through the arbitration process. Corbin figures to pull in between $20-30 million per year, while fellow free agent Dallas Keuchel figures to pull in around $20 million per year. Compared to those figures, Ray figures to be a steal and allows Rizzo to allocate money elsewhere on the roster.
Over the past three seasons, Corbin has been worth a combined 6.6 bWAR, Keuchel has been worth 6.9 bWAR and Ray has been worth 7.1 bWAR. Ray was worth 4.9 WAR alone in his 2017 breakout season where he posted a 15-5 record, 2.89 ERA and fanned 218 through 162 innings, finishing seventh in the NL Cy Young race. He’s got ace type stuff when his mechanics are right.
The biggest knock against Ray is his control issues, as he issues a high 4.0 BB/9. On the flip side of that, he struck out a lofty 12.01 batters per 9 innings last year, which was second in the National League only to Max Scherzer.
Given that Ray is young and under team control for another couple of seasons, the Diamondbacks aren’t going to part with him easily. A deal would likely center around Luis Garcia and also send Tim Cate and Kyle Johnston in a package headed back to Arizona. According to MLB.com, that package would send the Nationals 3rd, 9th and 20th rated prospects back to Arizona in return for Ray, which seems like a fair price to pay.
In turn, the Nationals would be able to deploy Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Ray at the top of their rotation, followed by Tanner Roark and either Joe Ross, Erick Fedde or Jefry Rodriguez holding down the fifth spot. If Ross, Fedde or Rodriguez don’t blow Rizzo’s socks off, he could turn to the free agent market and spend some of that money he saved by trading for Ray on a fifth starter.
Although giving up a top prospect isn’t ideal, Robbie Ray is going to be the best avenue for the Washington Nationals to boost their starting rotation while also leaving a good amount of money to fill out the rest of the roster heading into 2019.