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Washington Nationals: Analyzing the Nats Vegas win total

By Ross Shinberg

LOS ANGELES, CA - APRIL 21: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals warms before the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers up wearing a NHL Vegas Golden Knights t-shirt at Dodger Stadium on April 21, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - APRIL 21: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals warms before the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers up wearing a NHL Vegas Golden Knights t-shirt at Dodger Stadium on April 21, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images) /
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The first Washington Nationals over/under win total is open for betting. Why is the number is where it is, and did the oddsmakers get it right?

While it is only January, it is never too early to discuss Washington Nationals futures bets. On Tuesday, OddsShark tweeted out the first MLB over/under win total numbers of the season and the Nats over/under is set at 88.5 wins.

It is the highest of the National League East teams by 4.5 games, with the Atlanta Braves coming in at 84. In the rest of the N.L., only the Los Angeles Dodgers at 95 wins and Chicago Cubs with 89 have higher totals. The St. Louis Cardinals also boasts an 88.5 win total.

There are a few significant factors that warrant discussion on the Nats win total. First, and perhaps most importantly, is Bryce Harper.

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Baked within this number, it seems like the oddsmakers are accounting for Harper returning to the Nats about 60% of the time. From the most recently reported rumors, this seems to be a fair estimate.

There are not many players that move the needle in the baseball futures market, but Harper is most certainly one of them.

Should Harper stay, it would not be surprising to see the number stay where it is, or move to 89. If he leaves, expect a drop of one or two wins, perhaps three if he lands with the Philadelphia Phillies. A total plummet is extremely unlikely, because of the second factor.

In the scenario that Harper leaves, how much worse are the Nats without him? One could make an argument that the Nats are minimally worse off.

In 2018, what was the Nationals biggest positional strength? Their outfield depth. Losing Harper is not as big of a hit as some might make it out to be with Adam Eaton and Juan Soto both returning. In 2019, if Victor Robles does even 70% of what Soto did last year, he will help cushion the blow of losing number 34.

Last season, what was the Nats’ biggest positional weakness? Their situation behind the plate. The additions of not one, but two above average catchers in Kurt Suzuki and Yan Gomes turn that weakness into a strength.

The Nats also lost Daniel Murphy last season. On Thursday, the Nats signed Brian Dozier, a more than capable replacement. Last, but perhaps most significantly, the Nats traded away Tanner Roark to the Cincinnati Reds. However, in his place comes 2018 All-Star Patrick Corbin. That is, indubitably, a massive upgrade.

After all of this analysis, the main conclusion is that the Nats win over/under of 88.5 is spot on. Nats fans may be pessimistic after how last season ended, the Braves reloading for another season, and the Phillies potentially making a Harper or Manny Machado-sized free agent splash.

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However, the oddsmakers in Vegas think the Washington Nationals are going to be just fine. Now we wait for the big free agents to see whether this changes the odds either in or out of the Nats’ favor.

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