Washington Nationals: 3 keys to winning 2019 World Series

With Game 1 set to get underway on Tuesday night, we take a look at three ways the Washington Nationals can win the World Series.

Game 1 of the 2019 World Series is set to get underway on Tuesday in Houston as the Washington Nationals take on the heavily favored Astros.

Not many people are giving the Washington Nationals much of a chance in this series, but if anyone can match up with the starting rotation and lineup of the Astros, it’s the Nationals.

I’m not trying to discredit the Astros and say the hype surrounding them isn’t deserved, but the Nats have just as good of a starting rotation, and at least in the postseason, they’ve had the better offense.

This is going to be a hard-fought series, and it very well could come down to who does the little things well.

I haven’t watched a ton of Astros baseball outside of the postseason, but I know they are very sound defensively.

In the regular season, the Houston Astros ranked 10th in defensive WAR, according to FanGraphs, with a score of 9.9, while the Nationals ranked just 17th at 0.9.

But both teams ranked in the top 10 in terms of fewest errors made, and the Nats were just outside the top 10 in fielding percentage.

I’m expecting these games to be very tight, so the Nats will need to make sure they make all the plays on defense and not give the Astros anything.

And then, of course, they’ll need that surprise player to step up and make a huge contribution just like Steve Pearce did for the Boston Red Sox last year.

Howie Kendrick seems like the obvious choice there, but he’s been so good that you just kind of expect great things from him at this point.

Maybe someone like Asdrubal Cabrera or Brian Dozier, whichever one gets the most playing time at second, can step up and be a hero.

But outside of those two keys, there are three others in this series that I think will be critical in order for the Nationals to win.

Starters have to go deep

This one is pretty obvious, as are most of these keys, but there is no denying that if the Washington Nationals are going to win this World Series it’s going to happen on the backs of their starting pitchers.

Nationals starters have pitched 56.2 of the team’s 81 postseason innings so far averaging 6.2 innings per postseason start.

Eno Sarris of The Athletic (subscription required) breaks it down even further showing that Washington Nationals starters have pitched in 75 percent of the innings in the postseason.

That’s obviously by design as the Nats have had one of the worst bullpens in all of baseball this season, which we’ll get to in a second.

But if the starters can average over 6 innings a start in the World Series, I like the Nationals chances.

On the flip side, if the starters get knocked out after five innings then Washington is going to be in trouble.

I know that’s not shocking or breaking news, but that’s the reality.

This postseason is very different then the past couple where teams were eager to get to their bullpen with a lead.

Both the Nationals and the Astros are going back to the old days and will ride their starting pitchers as long as they can go.

And whichever team gets the most length out of their starters will have the upper hand.

Bullpen has to be lights out

As I noted, the first point is a no-brainer and is expected, but these next keys are big question marks going into the World Series.

Both teams have had their bullpen struggles in the postseason with the Nats carrying a bullpen ERA of 4.76 into the World Series and the Astros are sitting at 4.08.

Right now there are only two arms coming out of the bullpen that the Washington Nationals can trust — Sean Doolittle and Daniel Hudson.

They’ve both pitched in six games in the postseason and Doolittle has given up just 2 earned runs on 4 hits and no walks with 6 strikeouts.

Hudson has given up 4 hits and issued 3 walks, but he’s yet to give up a run this postseason (knock on wood) in 5.2 innings with 5 strikeouts.

Those two have to continue and be lights out for the Washington Nationals in the postseason.

But beyond that, they need at least one other bullpen arm to step up.

Tanner Rainey has been solid at times, and Fernando Rodney always makes things interesting but has yet to give up a run in 2.2 postseason innings with 5 strikeouts.

I don’t think Hunter Strickland can be trusted at all right now in a high-leverage situation having already given up 3 home runs this postseason.

If the Washington Nationals are going to win this World Series, they’re going to need Doolittle and Hudson to continue what they’ve been doing, and they’re going to need Rainey and/or Rodney to come up with some big outs as well.

As great as the Nats starters are, you have to figure the Astros lineup is going to put more stress on them than the Cardinals, so we’ll likely need someone out of the bullpen to bridge the gap in the sixth and seventh innings — hopefully with a lead.

And after Game 4, you can likely throw Corbin and/or Sanchez into the bullpen mix since they probably won’t be needed to start again.

This series has that feeling that it could come down to the last few innings of games, and whichever bullpen gets the job done will secure the World Series for their team.