For the first time since 2019, the Washington Nationals are firmly in the race for the postseason -- if the postseason ended right now, they'd be in it.
Let's take a step back and appreciate that -- the Nats are back, thanks in big part to new management. Under new President of Baseball Operations Paul Toboni and manager Blake Butera, Washington are winners' of 8 of their last 10 series, and currently hold the final NL Wild Card spot.
Anyway, ball games in Navy Yard aren't the only thing that will be getting hotter in the next 6 weeks -- it's trade season, and the "hot stove" of rumors and speculations are heating up faster and faster every day.
The Nationals should be buyers at the 2026 deadline
When I say buyers, I do not mean that Paul Toboni should push all his chips into the table and mortgage the future for 4 months of Tarik Skubal -- as fun as that would be. Washington's future; both current young stars, and prospects in the pipeline is promising for the first time in recent memory, and the big league team aren't the type of win-now World Series contender that should actually be in the mix for Skubal.
With that said though, I do believe that there are calculated improvements that Toboni can, and should make to bolster Washington's chances at not only reaching the playoffs, but making noise once they are there.
As we know, Washington's offense is red-hot: As of Friday, June 19th, Washington is the only team to have scored 400 runs -- still maintaining a lead of the World Series hopeful Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Yankees, and Atlanta Braves.
If Washington wants to compete for the postseason, pitching needs to be their deadline priority
Washington holds the 6th worst ERA for both starters and relievers. The bullpen has blown 19 saves, in 41 opportunities -- that's dangerously close to 50%, meaning they blow 1 of every 2 save opportunities.
Contenders don't do that.
They've given up the most runs, and second most hits in baseball. Washington's run differential is +15 -- which sounds fine -- it's a positive number. But, other contenders like the Yankees and Brewers have a differential of +115 or more. The Dodgers, who have scored the second most runs in baseball behind the Nats, have a differential of +144. Washington has +15.
In simpler terms, Washington is giving up far too many runs, and it's a glaring problem. Sure, they're scoring more runs than any other team in baseball -- but if that offense sinks? So does Washington's hope to reach the playoffs.
If James Wood, CJ Abrams, or a even combination of Curtis Mead, Daylen Lile, Luis Garcia Jr. or Keibert Ruiz suffer an injury, this whole operation could come-a-tumblin' down. To weather that storm, Washington would likely need to employ a pitching staff that is at least league average -- their current staff won't cut it.
Such a collapse would certainly be traced back to Toboni and his lack of pitcher acquisition -- it was a problem clearly seen by fans once Spring Training ended, and has only been muted by Washington's spectacular offense.
So... how do you fix it?
Let's start with the rotation
Foster Griffin has been consistently excellent, and Cade Cavalli has done just fine. I would not want to see either of them lose their spot in the rotation, especially Griffin, who the Nationals could (and should) be thinking about signing to an extension.
After rocky starts for Zack Littell and Miles Mikolas, both pitchers have enjoyed some mild improvement. In fact, in the last month both have turned in performances with 7 innings pitched, and one-run or less.
Jake Irvin, currently injured, has been... serviceable. While his K's/9 is Washington's best, he's struggled with walking batters.
I think Paul Toboni has a pair of options for his rotation -- he could move to a six man rotation (like other contenders such as the Seattle Mariners) or, move one of Littell or Mikolas out of the rotation. I think Irvin's young age, upside, and "stuff" would keep his spot safe for when he returns to injury.
Any pitcher that Washington targets to join the rotation will need to be able to strike batters out, and keep baseballs in the yard.
With all that said, let's start(er).
Joe Ryan, RHP; Minnesota Twins
While the cost could be steep to acquire, and then subsequently pay Joe Ryan (team control through 2027), Washington has the emerging prospects to entice the rebuilding Twins into making a deal.
Ryan, an all-star for the Twins last season, has 16 starts this season, and boasts a 2.99 ERA. Averaging less than one home run and ten strikeouts per nine innings, the San Francisco native could bring exactly what the Nationals need.
Ryan would immediately become Washington's ace; at only 30 years old and due for a large raise in for 2028, he could make D.C. his home long term -- if the Lerner's would pay up.
Obviously, Tarik Skubal is the best pitcher on the market. While I don't see the Nats getting anywhere close, I think Joe Ryan may be the second best option available.
Now... who else?
Reid Detmers, LHP / Jose Soriano, RHP; Los Angeles Angels
I placed Detmers and Soriano together here because both could be great fits in Washington. Plus, if Paul Toboni gets declined on trading for one, he can always ask about the other.
Soriano started off immensely hot, only giving up 1 run in his first six starts. Detmers has heated up as of late, including finishing 7 innings in three of his last five starts.
Soriano currently holds a 2.79 ERA, and a 8-4 record, which is surprising considering who he plays for. Detmers, on the other hand has a 3-5 record, with a 3.68 ERA.
Both pitchers could be very attractive targets for Washington; not only for their performance so far this year, but also the fact that both are 27 years of age or younger, have 2 more years of team control (arbitration) after this season, and are both making than $3m this season.
As long as Arte Moreno is in charge of everything baseball-related in Anaheim, don't expect the Angels to ever try to assemble a consistent winner -- that's why Detmers and Soriano are available. I'd expect it to be a little cheaper to acquire than Joe Ryan, as neither have reached "ace" status yet.
The rotation is not the only pitching problem for the Nats -- the bullpen is in rough shape. There are some bright spots: Brad Lord, Richard Lovelady, PJ Poulin, Andrew Alvarez (when he doesn't start), and Clayton Beeter all have positive WAR, and ERAs under 3.5. All things considered, they've been solid.
On the flip side, Cionel Perez, Mitchell Parker, Gus Varland, and Paxton Schultz all have 5+ ERAs, and have been responsible in a big way for Washington's 19 blown saves. As mentioned earlier, that cannot happen if the Nationals want to contend.
So... who can help in the bullpen?
Riley O'Brien, RHP; St. Louis Cardinals
Washington needs to be desperate to fix their problem blowing saves. Why not aim high, and call St. Louis about closer Riley O'Brien, who boasts 18 saves, the third highest in baseball?
Though 31 years old, O'Brien only has 83 career appearances -- he has two more years of team control before reaching free agency.
But why would the Cardinals trade him?
While 7 games above .500, the Cardinals, much like the Nationals are enjoying an unexpected year of success in the midst of a rebuild; in fact, the Cardinals just officially "started" their rebuild before this season -- yet they are 4 games better than the Nats. Anyway...
On paper, the Nationals are further along in their rebuild (established young All-Stars) than the Cardinals (budding young talent), and will ideally be consistently contending much sooner then St. Louis. On the flip side, Chaim Bloom and the Cardinals can sell high on O'Brien, who's age could seemingly exclude him from the Cardinals long-term plans.
O'Brien has been one of the league's best closers -- and you can argue he fills a major need for Washington.
Antonio Senzatela, RHP; Colorado Rockies
Senzatela and O'Brien are at very similar junctures in their careers -- both are enjoying strong performances in their age-31 season.
A middle-to-long reliever, Senzatela has seen action in almost any inning this year. He holds a 6-0 record, a 2.29 ERA, and a 1.042 WHIP. Giving up less than one home run and striking out seven per nine innings leaves Senzatela as a prime trade candidate for the Rockies, who are once again at the bottom of the NL West.
While not a closer, Senzatela would be a welcomed addition to the bullpen -- an experienced 10 year veteran in a room full of young arms.
A quick note on Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen
While both hall-of-fame closers are reported to be available, don't expect the Nationals to be a major suiter for either -- both are 38, and are likely looking for any chance to contend that they can get. The Nationals are not there yet, as much as both could help the Nats' young bullpen.
Pete Fairbanks, RHP; Miami Marlins
Would Miami make a trade with a division rival that, at time of writing, is only two games ahead? Maybe, or maybe not.
However, the 32 year old Fairbanks signed a one-year deal with Marlins -- so it would make sense to trade him unless they plan to re-sign him in the winter.
Now, at first glance, Fairbanks looks like a negative asset: a 3-3 record, and a 6.75 ERA. However, in his last four seasons with a minimum of 40 games, Fairbanks has tallied a ERA of 3.59 or lower. One save shy from his 100th career, Fairbanks has been a positive asset as a closer for multiple years.
His high ERA could drive Miami's asking price down. If Washington acquires, and things don't go well? He's on a one-year deal, and he can walk in free agency.
I think Fairbanks is a low-risk, high-reward acquisition, if Washington can get their hands on him.
While I maintain that pitching should be the priority for the Nats at the deadline, that doesn't mean that they can't add a bat.
If Washington decides to add a hitter, I'd like to see an infielder, specifically a first or second baseman be added. Rumors are that Luis Garcia Jr. could be on the move by the deadline, and, until his superhero performance a few days ago, Nasim Nunez was struggling heavily.
Maybe the Nationals could swing big for a Willson Contreras or reunite with an old friend, Josh Bell or Nathaniel Lowe. Maybe it's Ryan Mountcastle from Baltimore.
It's also possible that Washington's trade deadline "acquisition" could be a move on the farm too, calling up Seaver King or Brady House to give the infield a new look.
I don't believe you will see Washington go "all-in" at this deadline -- but I believe that there are some improvements that need to be made. The Nationals are fortunate to be in a position to make a push for the postseason -- and by being buyers at the deadline, can improve their chances to be playing meaningful baseball this season and beyond.
Sometimes, a few calculated and thoughtful upgrades to address needs is all it takes.
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