Evaluating the Nationals' Options at First Base This Offseason

I've written about why I like Juan Yepez and Andrés Chaparro recently, but the fact of the matter is that the Washington Nationals have a dearth of first base prospects anywhere near the majors. That, of course, means it might--if we're lucky--be time for the Lerners to open up the pocketbook and find a first baseman. Let's weigh the options.

For all intents and purposes, Pete Alonso is probably the big prize. The Nationals have been shorthanded on serious home run power since Juan Soto was shipped off. At present, it seems that most sources project the Mets to reel him back in this winter after he tests the market, but at the right price tag he could be dissuaded. Spotrac's model projects him to be worth 6 years and $174 million, but forecasts him actually receiving more in the realm of 7 years and $242 million. That's a huge jump, but the Nationals have some walking-around money after how inactive they've been in the long-term free agent market and with Patrick Corbin coming off the books. Depending on who you ask, Nationals Park is either effectively the same or better for a right-handed home run hitter than Citi Field, so his power will play. It's hard to project exactly how much spending room the Lerners are going to give general manager Mike Rizzo this offseason, so I'm not going to make predictions on if they'll pursue him, but making Alonso a National would probably sit well with a decent number of fans.

The next decently high-caliber first baseman on the market is Christian Walker. Spotrac projects Walker to be worth around 3 years and $66 million, and to receive effectively that same figure. Of course, his value could be pushed up by a bidding war, but the fact of the matter is that Walker's going to be 34 next year. A three-year deal might not make sense for a team that's not already in the midst of a contention window, and it's not clear if the Nationals' window is going to be opening next year or later. Walker could be a bold signing; Rizzo probably doesn't feel compelled to try to talk Walker into something more like a five-year deal in the hopes that Walker is still producing when he's 39 and can supplement a more experienced core.

Paul Goldschmidt is the last of the "power three" in this class, and that's kind of even more of a non-starter. Goldy might find a multi-year contract somewhere in the sea of Major League front offices, but it certainly won't be in Washington. A 37-year-old first baseman who just had a season with a miserable first half is not extremely highly coveted. If the Nationals want to try to make him a deadline flip, sure, but it's hard to imagine Goldschmidt jumping on a contract offer like that.

There's a few other strong bats in this class, but they're a little more oddball candidates. Cody Bellinger is still a capable center and right-fielder--he's not yet 30--but has seen a decent amount of time at first base while with the Cubs. Bellinger can opt out of the last two years of his contract with Chicago this offseason, but that would entail leaving $32.5 million guaranteed on the table. Unless he thinks he can find a better deal elsewhere, he's probably going to stay where he is.

Anthony Santander is another oddball case here. Yes, he's a corner outfielder, but he has seen 20 chances at first base over the last two seasons (and yes, 19 of those 20 came in 2023, but bear with me here). He's on the wrong side of 30 and it's hard to believe he's going to have another 40-homer season, and like I said, Tony Taters can slot into the first base role (or DH, if the fielding doesn't go according to plan). The pricing is the sticking point: Spotrac projects him in the range of 5 years and $89 million, which isn't exactly breaking the bank if he doesn't live up to the team's standards, but Jim Bowden at The Athletic made a bold prediction on Thursday that due to the market scarcity of someone that fits Santander's archetypes, he could be looking at closer to 7 years and $150 million. That's a lot more of a gawk-worthy number, but I have a hard time believing that he's going to sniff quite that much. I'm welcome to be proven wrong, but if the bidding gets to that extent, you can probably count the Nationals front office out.

Joc Pederson is less a first base option than he is a DH option. I'm a big fan of Pederson, and was bummed when we didn't land him last offseason, but after a significant rebound in Arizona in 2024, he's probably going to be searching for a multi-year deal this winter. Yes, some facets of his game leave something to be desired--his .381 xwOBA from 2024 doesn't seem like it'll be repeatable--but J.D. Martinez made the All-Star team in his ages 33, 34, and 35 seasons. Something like a two- or three-year deal with a $15 million AAV wouldn't amount to more than a flier in the Nationals' current situation, but we'll see what Pederson expects to get after a career year--it'll probably be a little more than that.

And then we go to the cheaper options. Justin Turner is in the twilight of his career, but after announcing his intent to play again in 2025 and still putting up pretty playable numbers at the plate, he's someone I'd love for the Nationals to take a look at. Turner isn't someone you really sign to produce at a high level as a 40-year-old first baseman, but he provides extremely useful veteran insight on a club that'll be losing some as Corbin leaves. Do not underestimate the value that comes from a veteran player who's still actively playing.

Mark Canha had a decent first half this year, good enough to earn himself a trade to San Francisco in their ultimately fruitless search for a playoff berth. Canha has primarily moved to first base at this point in his career as he reaches the other side of 35, but this would probably shake out to a one-year deal that either gets traded at the deadline or released in June if he doesn't perform. Again, the veteran presence matters, even if just for a short time.

It's unclear if Anthony Rizzo's club option will be picked up this offseason by the Yankees, but I'd venture to guess they'd rather spend that $17 million elsewhere, given how much Hal Steinbrenner pouts about his team's payroll situation. Rizzo is certainly not the same player he used to be--a thick recent injury history, compounded by playing for over a month in 2023 with undiagnosed post-concussion syndrome certainly doesn't help--but he's another positive presence on a team soon to sorely lack veteran leadership and he still flashes the pop he used to feature from time to time. Rizzo's another one-year candidate, assuming he reaches the open market.

An underrated name is Carlos Santana. Santana has quietly been one of the best defenders in baseball at first base this past season, and still swings an at-worst league-average bat at age 38. Santana will probably be pursued on a one-year deal by teams looking to supplement an already-competing core, but he won't be particularly expensive, so if the front office thinks the time to start pushing the window open is now, he could be a prime target.

Donovan Solano is an interesting case. He'll certainly be cheap, but he was taking meaningful plate appearances all the way into the postseason this year for the shorthanded Padres. A 37-year-old contact-first 1B isn't exactly a dream free agent signing, but it could be a functional one. Again, veteran leadership and all that, but Solano has maybe the highest likelihood of also being a trade deadline rental swap of anyone in this section.

Moving down the list, we see guys with options that probably won't be hitting the free market. Wilmer Flores of the Giants will probably pick up his $3.5 million player option for 2025 after a miserable season up to August when he went down for the year with a knee injury. The Orioles have liked what they've gotten from Ryan O'Hearn, and are willing to move him into right field when they need to, so it's easy to foresee them picking up his $8 million option for next year.

Another guy that's easy to ignore is Brandon Lowe, but there's a chance we shouldn't. Lowe's not a particularly large risk of finding his way to the open market, as his $10.5 million team option for Tampa Bay isn't an enormous expense by any stretch, but Lowe has seen time at first base recently and has been making elite contact when he plays. As a free agent, Spotrac projects he'd command about 4 years and $80 million, so again, the Rays are more likely to pick up the option and find a trade suitor for him this offseason, but he's a name to keep an eye on.

And then there's the "avoid at all costs" guys. Yuli Gurriel was only on the Royals' postseason roster out of sheer necessity, and even then they probably should've run Salvador Pérez at first base and Freddy Fermín behind the plate. Gurriel's heyday has long since passed, and while he might find an opportunity with, say, the White Sox (they do like their washed-up former Astros over there), one can only hope the Nationals don't offer him that same grace.

The other primary guy to be avoided is Brandon Drury. Drury broke out in 2022 with the Reds, then the Padres, before earning a two-year, $17 million deal with the Angels as they threw everything at the wall in the hopes to salvage one postseason run with Shohei Ohtani. He was decent yet again in 2023, posting an OPS north of .800, but Drury just put up one of only two negative-two WAR seasons in the majors (joining Opening Day roster National Eddie Rosario! Funny how that works) in 2024, as Ron Washington kept giving him plate appearances in the hopes he'd turn it around, and as he just never did, putting up a 34 wRC+ in 360 PA. The allure might be there; he's only one year removed from being worth 2.7 fWAR in 2023, but I just can't even recommend a minors deal in the Nationals organization for Drury, much less a majors one.

Who do you think the Nationals should sign? Who do you think they will sign, if anyone? Was there anyone I missed? Let us know what you think by mentioning us on Twitter @DistrictOnDeck, or reaching out to me on Bluesky @theottspot.bsky.social.