While the free agent market for hitters has remained almost completely stagnant, two starting pitchers reached agreements with teams early this week. On Monday, the Los Angeles Angels landed right-hander Yusei Kikuchi on a three-year, $63 million contract. Then late Tuesday night, the cross-town Dodgers came to terms with southpaw Blake Snell (above) on a rather large five-year, $182 million deal (including $62 million in deferrals).
Interestingly enough, the experts at District on Deck were all incorrect in our recent free agency predictions in terms of contract value and acquiring team for both pitchers. The most popular destination for Kikuchi among our staff (myself included) was the Houston Astros, while the plurality of us expected Snell to sign with the Baltimore Orioles, although some (including me) predicted a return to the San Diego Padres, with whom he won a Cy Young Award in 2023.
While most of us agreed that Kikuchi would earn a three-year contract, none of us projected him to receive more than $18.3 million in average annual value. We were even more extremely below the actual mark for Snell. Most of us expected him to sign a four-year contract in the neighborhood of $25-30 million per year, whereas he ended up getting a staggering $36.4 million annually, despite being less than a week shy of turning 32 years old. As a point of reference, this exceeds the $35 million per year that Stephen Strasburg was given (two additional seasons notwithstanding) after being named the 2019 World Series MVP.
With that said, we agreed across the board that the Nationals will likely sign at least one starting pitcher this offseason. Whether that will be a true ace or a more optimal No. 2 or 3 starter, there is a resounding sentiment among the entire fanbase that Washington needs to sign someone to help lead the staff.
So who are the remaining options?
Among the true frontliners, available options who are expected to sign big-money, long-term contracts include Corbin Burnes (Orioles), Max Fried (Braves) and, if the Nationals decide to finally turn towards the Asian market, Roki Sasaki.
The next tier down includes Jack Flaherty (Dodgers), Nathan Eovaldi (Rangers), Shane Bieber (Guardians), Sean Manaea and Luis Severino (Mets), and Frankie Montas (Brewers). And then there are also short-term and/or buy-low options such as Walker Buehler (Dodgers), Andrew Heaney (Rangers) or even Nationals legend Max Scherzer.
The general consensus in the Nationals community seems to be that if they go after a big fish, it'll be on the trade market. Many fans have suggested AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers, although the odds of that actually happening seem exceedingly slim. Garrett Crochet of the Chicago White Sox, the AL Comeback Player of the Year, might be a bit more likely, but ultimately, there are numerous other options who could help Washington's starting staff in a meaningful way.
On the free agent front, Buehler appears to be a heavy favorite, perhaps in the neighborhood of two or three years at an annual rate of $10-15 million, and maybe with an opt-out after the first year. Buehler - who I wrote about previously during his impressive World Series run - has had trouble staying healthy recently, but has been mostly dominant when available. With that in mind, he may seek a short-term deal to build his value back up to where it once was as a blossoming young superstar.
We're still a couple weeks away from the annual Winter Meetings, which will take place from December 8-12 in Dallas, Texas. Free agency often doesn't heat up until after these wrap up. Nonethless, there is some movement now, with Snell and Kikuchi off the board.
Who will be next, and when might one of them sign with the Nationals? Follow along at @stephen_newman1 for updates and potential targets as the wheels continue to turn this offseason.