What’s to Like, and What’s Not to Like, From the Nationals So Far This Season

I like to think of myself as a very happy guy. The sun is shining, the weather is getting warmer, summer is coming, and baseball season is here. No complaints about my life outside of baseball from this Nats fan. This is all to say how hard it is sometimes though, which I have been tested countless times since 2020, to keep that eternal optimism towards this franchise. If not for the 2019 World Series run this would be much more difficult, but I like to give Mike Rizzo and most of the organization the benefit of the doubt with the tumultuous tenure since the magic ended in 2019.

2024 is another year of low expectations, but it is a critical year on the slow climb back to the top. We are now a year or two out from being potential contenders, needing to evaluate pieces that will be critical for the future.

Off to a decent start, let’s do an analytical run down of some of the bright and rough patches so far, while I try my best to not give any knee-jerk reactions.

What’s to Like:

Joey Gallo and Jesse Winker:

As pointed out in the tweet below, Gallo and Winker have both been revelations to this lineup. After last season having relatively no power threats, an addition like Gallo was much necessary, and after a painfully slow start, Gallo has slashed .179/.319/.487 for a .806 OPS in April, with 5 extra-base hits and 4 walks. The strikeouts are still and will always be an issue, but Gallo’s power, walk-ability, and above-average defense at first have been fun to watch.

Jesse Winker has not provided eye-popping numbers, but for a guy signed a few weeks ago off a minor league deal, Winker has provided a nice spark. He works deep into counts and has been playing much better defense than expected, with a big catch in the 9th inning against the Phillies, and 2 outfield assists throwing runners out at home. His underlying numbers look much more similar to his all-star form vs his dreadful last two seasons, and I am hoping, but not banking on, he and Gallo to keep this up.

Luis Garcia Jr.

This is a pivotal year for Luis Garcia Jr, and he has been off to a terrific start. His underlying statistics in almost every single category are on tracks for career highs, highlighted by an expected slugging percentage that is 92nd percentile and a barrel percentage that is at the top of the league. His defense and sprint speed have also slightly improved, which is surprising after continuing to frustrate fans in spring training. Luis got off to a good start last year as well from an analytical perspective, so I am shaky on this one but hoping for the best.

MacKenzie Gore

Plain and simple. MacKenzie Gore has the stuff to be an ace. He can be as good as he wants to be, and the more he pitches, the more he should improve and smooth out the frustrating part of his game. Gore has improved his average fastball velocity from 95 to 97.1 so far, with increased inside verticle break. His extension and offspeed continue to be elite as well, with a below-average walk rate. Gore needs to throw strikes and let his stuff play for him, but my hope has been as high as ever that we have a pillar in our rotation for years to come.

CJ Abrams and Lane Thomas

Continuing to be a solid 1-2 punch at the top of the lineup, CJ Abrams is on the verge of breaking out to become a superstar, getting off to a blazing start before injuring his hand a few days ago. He already has 3 home runs and a triple with 3 steals over his first 7 games, with an OPS of .970. Lane Thomas got off to a miserable start, but he has picked it up in CJ’s absence, recording 3 multi-hit games in a row. Lane’s also been more aggressive on the base paths, tied for second in the league with 6 steals.

Trey Lipscomb

Look, I am not as high on Lipscomb as most Nats fans are right now, but it has been nice to see a relatively unknown prospect at least holding his own at the major league level. Lipscomb almost made the Opening Day roster before being called up for game 2 after the Nick Senzel injury, and he has started every game since slashing .265/.286/.353 over his first 34 at-bats. Lipscomb is tied for third in the league with 4 steals after his 3 hit, 3 steal night on April 8th, and he has been solid at third, but question marks are valid about his arm. Lipscomb should at least be a solid utility guy in the future.

What’s Not to Like:

Josiah Gray

Sigh. There are not many people who are having a worse start to the 2024 season than Josiah Gray. Gray has looked awful his first two starts, having relatively no control of the strike zone, with below-average stuff. Pretty bad combo. After a great, but lucky, start to the season last year Gray started to tail off in the second half, and has continued that into this season. His breaking stuff has continued to digress since it looked promising in 2022, and he is averaging career-low velocity on his 4-seat fastball at 92.7 mph. Gray needs to rebound quickly to give us hope for the future, but it is hard to ignore the bad signs we have seen so far.

*Update* Following a similar trend to a ton of starting pitching this season, Josiah Gray has been placed on the IL with a forearm sprain, with more details to come.

Joey Meneses

Joey has been a point of emphasis for Nationals fans, and as I said before the season in this article, I wanted Meneses to get one more shot. After a promising start to the season in Cincinnati when he blistered a couple of baseballs, including one at 114 mph which was higher than any ball he hit last season, Meneses has hit .190/.271/.214 so far in April, and Davey Martinez continues to play him every day. Meneses provides no value defensively and should be on a shorter leash than last year, but I understand the frustration most people are having with him at this point.

Keibert Ruiz

Similar to Joey Meneses, after a blistering start to the season in Cincinnati at the plate over his first two games, Keibert has since gone 2-24 with only 2 walks and no extra-base hits, resulting in a .555 OPS to begin the season. He is still not striking out at all with only 5 over his first 31 at-bats, but with his low barrel percentage and being a very slow base runner, it is a tough mix to be successful. A point of emphasis over the offseason was improving his defense after a putrid 2023 behind the plate, and he has shown some strides there in the blocking aspect, rating in the top 10 percentile after being bottom 10 last season. We need Ruiz to turn it around with him being locked up long-term.

Struggles on the Farm

I want to make it clear. I could not be less worried about Dylan Crews on the baseball diamond. Elijah Greene is a different story but I will continue banking on the fact of how young he is, and that he is a freak of nature. Crews need to continue his course, take his lumps, and not worry about Paul Skenes and or what Wyatt Langford are doing. Crews has plenty of time to develop, and he has such an incredible profile I am confident he will figure things out.

Too much Ildemaro Vargas:

Your 2024 Nationals leader in war through the first 10 games of the season? Ildemaro Vargas. The ultimate vibes guy.

So why am I upset enough to put him in this category?

1. We have Nasim Nunez on the roster and he has 2 at-bats on the season even with CJ Abrams out the past 3 games
2. Ildemaro Vargas is a 32-year-old journeyman on the roster with no future with this franchise
3. In a critical year for Luis Garcia Jr, especially with how streaky of a hitter he is, why would you play matchups and continue to give Ildemaro at-bats vs lefties?

I am not a Vargas hater by any means and I even think he provides the team some value, but Davey needs to calm down and not play a guy like Vargas 70% of the time on a rebuilding team.

All in all the season could be off to a worse start, and I am standing by my prediction of 74-88. Not only am I counting down the days until James Wood is called up, but let’s root for the what’s not to like’s, to become a what’s to like.