There's a sale going on at Nationals Park, and it's not at the team store.
No, this is a special sale that happens on the field. All season long, opposing offenses have been taking advantage of this deal: buy one run, and the Nationals defense will give you a free out in cashback. That's another out that you can cash in for even more runs! It's an offer almost too good to be true--and yet, teams have taken advantage of this opportunity 35 times this year and counting whether at Nationals Park or when the team takes the show on the road.
Of course, a deal like this can't last--or, at least, it shouldn't. The Washington Nationals' atrocious defense doesn't seem like it's going to be shoring up any time soon. The Nats have given up 639 runs this year: that's second-most in the majors. The pitching, yes, is pretty bad. But that's a discussion for another day. When opposing offenses put the ball in play, and it doesn't go over the fence, they're recording hits at a .311 clip. That's also second-worst in baseball, also just ahead of the Rockies who play half their games in the cavernous Coors Field. When you factor in catcher responsibilities--of which framing is the most critical, and the Nationals are dead last in the league in framing runs--Washington has the second-lowest fielding run value in baseball at -35.
Here's the part where I'd point to the big posterboard chart that I threw together in the earnings meeting, and I'd say "these are the areas where we need to improve," but if you look at the team's ranks by position in Statcast Fielding Run Value:
Catcher: 29th (-12)
First Base: 24th (-3)
Second Base: 30th (-9)
Third Base: 25th (-5)
Shortstop: 29th (-6)
Left Field: 21st (-5)
Center Field: 3rd (+12)
Right Field: 24th (-8)
The Nationals are bottom 10 in baseball in every single position on the diamond except for center field, which has been frequently manned by Gold Glove candidate Jacob Young this season (though his 62 wRC+ is severely dragging down the value of that defense).
Where does one even begin to try to improve on this? It's a long road to get there, and it's hard to imagine the Nationals will be the kind of offensive powerhouse that can simply hit its way out of hemorrhaging runs with poor fielding. Still, there are a couple possibilities:
Shake up the catching situation
Between Keibert Ruiz and Riley Adams, the Nationals, according to Statcast, have been worth 13 runs below average at the catcher position. That's a composite of framing runs, blocking, and throwing. Keibert and Riley rank decently in the latter, but are each among the worst in the league at each of the first two. Yes, as a catcher, there is something to be said for game calling, but there's no real evidence that either Ruiz or Adams have Jeff Mathis-level chops for sequencing behind the dish.
Ruiz, due to a variety of injuries, has played only 68 games this year, but in that time, he's been worth an entire win's worth of production below a hypothetical replacement-level player according to FanGraphs. Assuming this holds, it will be Keibert's third consecutive season posting negative fWAR marks. Ruiz is under a pre-arbitration extension that carries him through 2030, but as potentially the worst defensive catcher in baseball, there might be some credence to the idea of optioning the 27-year-old Ruiz to the minor leagues. Ruiz would have to consent to the option, as he has no option years remaining, but serious work is needed if he wants to start producing at the Major League level.
Acquiring a catcher in the offseason should be a priority. It doesn't need to be a star player, but someone who will reliably provide quality defense behind the dish is critical to beginning to shore up the team's fielding issues. Alternatively, the team could opt to give Drew Millas more playing time. Millas, who's been third on the catching depth chart for much of the last few years, was always noted as a quality defender behind the plate by scouts and has had flashes of being able to hold his own in the batter's box. To be quite honest, anything is an upgrade from Riley Adams, who looks about as bad as Ruiz behind the plate and is striking out an astronomical 41% of the time in his fifth season as a Major League backup.
Up the middle, someone has to go
The Nats are also hemorrhaging runs in their middle infield. Between second baseman Luis García Jr. (who ranks dead last among ALL Major League players in Defensive Runs Saved) and shortstop CJ Abrams (who places in the 1st percentile of Outs Above Average at -10), the Nats are 29th and 30th at 2B and SS respectively in FRV. It's tough because García and Abrams are two of the only reliable bats the team has found lately; García has struggled this year, but he's underperforming his Statcast expected batting average (which, granted, is not infallible but is a potential sign for positive regression) by 34 points this year, and undershoots his expected slugging by 78 points.
A trade might be necessitated, though. García is probably the bigger candidate; hypothetically, the team would be selling low on him, but the point of trading for a player is targeting future value, and García's peripherals suggest that his process is as refined as it will ever be. It's not peak value, but a reliable hitting 25-year-old second baseman with 2 years of team control is a rare find on the market.
That could clear the way for CJ Abrams to move to second base, a slightly less demanding position (though I'm more in on the idea of CJ ultimately becoming an outfielder), but it leaves the question open as to who plays short. That's something I'm not sure I have the answer to until Seaver King establishes himself in the high minors; Jackson Cluff could be worth a shot, but other than that, the Nationals don't have too many immediately impactful options within the organization, and the free agent market is rather barren for strong fielding up the middle (I'm not much of a believer in Bo Bichette's glove).
Save us, DC3
Don't get me wrong, I'm a big fan of what Daylen Lile's shown us at the plate, and I think his combination of contact and speed makes him a candidate to rebound offensively. In the field, however, it's been rough. In under 400 innings in right field, Lile has been worth -11 DRS and -8 FRV. That's in the 3rd percentile of fielding runs per Statcast, and is a large contributor as to why the Nationals are 24th in MLB in that metric. The imminent return of Dylan Crews should stabilize that a bit, though it remains to be seen where Crews will end up playing in the long-term.
I think it's also time to cut bait on a few failed projects. Josh Bell and Paul DeJong will not be here next year, nor should Nathaniel Lowe (though it's more likely the team non-tenders him in the offseason). The team knows they're not getting anything out of those guys, so resume the youth movement and let some younger guys come up (especially Andrés Chaparro!).
Ultimately there is a significant onus on the organization to turn the tides of the Nats' poor glovework around. Up and down the system, something needs to be overhauled coaching-wise to start seeing better results in the field. My hope is that with a change in regime in place (we'll see who ends up holding the GM and Major League manager roles come 2026), a heightened focus will be placed on improving the team in that regard.
The majority of the information in this piece was sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant (MLB), and Spotrac.