One of the most pleasant surprises for the Nationals this past season was the breakout of rookie Daylen Lile. Lile, the National League Rookie of the Month and Player of the Month in September, has shortcomings, but he also has the promise to become a consistent middle-of-the-order threat for Washington.
Lile, a second-round draft pick in 2021, was never high on prospect rankings; this season, he was the seventh-ranked prospect for the Nationals. Lile did not dominate the minor leagues either. In High-A, he had a .667 OPS, and at AA, he had a .714 OPS. Still, the lefty slugger worked his way through the minors and showed promise in his first season in the majors.
Over 321 at bats, Lile slugged nine home runs and had an .845 OPS. The peak of his season came in his award-winning September, where he had a 1.212 OPS, six home runs, and a staggering six triples. Ultimately, he finished the season with 11 triples, which is the most a Nationals rookie has ever hit in a season. Lile accomplished this feat while playing in only 91 games.
Lile’s elite speed is a key component in his triple-hitting prowess. His average sprint speed, 29.1 feet per second, is in the 92nd percentile of qualified players in Major League Baseball. The faster you are, the easier it is to reach third.
While Lile’s speed is certainly an elite tool for him, he only stole eight bases and was caught six times. Moreover, he was a defensive liability in the outfield with an Outs Above Average in the fifth percentile of qualified players. Faster players typically steal bases more efficiently and can use added range to be positive contributors on defense. Lile struggled at both of these aspects of the game, but it could have been due to rookie inexperience. Thanks to his speed, he has room to grow at his weaknesses on the basepaths and in the field. For example, he can develop skills such as improving his jumps on steals and reading balls in the outfield.
Speed can help Lile's baserunning and defense, but not his offensive weaknesses. Notably, Lile had a walk percentage of 6.0 and an average bat speed of 69.2 miles per hour. Both of these crucial marks for sustained offensive performance are well below average. To sustain success in the Major Leagues, most hitters need to learn how to take walks and must have high bat speed to catch up to elite velocity. While Lile has positive offensive qualities like avoiding strikeouts and swings and misses, his success may not be sustainable in the long term with his current approach. Granted, players like Steven Kwan and Luis Arraez have found success with approaches similar to Lile's. But, these players are unique, and there is no guarantee Lile can follow a similar path.
Lile had a phenomenal rookie season and has the tools to be a terrific major league player for the Nationals. He has clear weaknesses, too, though, and his long-term success depends on how the Nationals' new regime can develop him.