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Washington Nationals: Sean Doolittle can show he is elite

By Ross Shinberg

SAN DIEGO, CA - AUGUST 20: Sean Doolittle #62 of the Washington Nationals pitches during the ninth inning against the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park on August 20, 2017 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Kent Horner/Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO, CA - AUGUST 20: Sean Doolittle #62 of the Washington Nationals pitches during the ninth inning against the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park on August 20, 2017 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Kent Horner/Getty Images) /
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With one save already under his belt, Washington Nationals reliever Sean Doolittle can show the rest of the MLB he is one of its premier closers.

Washington Nationals relief pitcher Sean Doolittle is a type of player the Nationals have been yearning to have.  It has been since Tyler Clippard in 2011 and 2014 that the Nationals a reliever represented the Nationals in an All-Star game.

Acquired via trade from the Oakland Athletics last season, Doolittle was a godsend for the team. With the Nationals, Doolittle posted a 2.40 ERA with a hair over a strikeout per inning.

Doolittle saved 21 games in 22 opportunities.  His 21 saves led the Nationals.  The next highest player was Koda Glover with eight saves.  No other player recorded more than four saves.

What Doolittle has provided for the Nationals, at the very least, is stability.  But Doolittle is more than just an above average reliever. He can be one of the best in the MLB.

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Doolittle is a three pitch pitcher, but he boasts a fastball he threw 87.7% of the time last season, according to Fangraphs.com’s pitch splits page. Despite the fact he throws mostly one pitch (while mixing in a mid-to-low 80’s changeup and slider) he is incredibly effective.

Over the last three seasons, Doolittle’s OPS against when throwing his fastball has decreased each year. According to Fangraphs, it went from .664 in 2015 to .640 in 2016, and all the way down to .518 in 2017.  His batting average against on the fastball dipped below .185 for the first time since his lone All-Star season in 2014.

We know Doolittle has the “stuff” to be an elite reliever.  But he needs the opportunities to display it.  The move from the Athletics to the Nationals might have been the perfect scenario.

Last season, the Athletics gave Doolittle just four save opportunities.  The team leader in saves, Santiago Casilla, only had 23 all season. As mentioned earlier, Doolittle got 22 opportunities just with the Nationals.

Most predictions peg the Athletics to finish near the bottom of the American League.  OddsShark.com put the team wins over/under number at 74.5, worse than all but six teams.  In contrast, they have the Nationals over/under at 92.5, better than all but five teams.

While nothing in baseball is certain, it is extremely likely Doolittle will get more save opportunities with the Nationals than he would have gotten in Oakland.  It’s difficult to record a save when the team doesn’t have a lead.

Could Doolittle push for 30 saves?  It’s certainly likely.  According to Fangraphs.com’s Depth Chart projections, it tabs Doolittle for 33 saves, tied for fourth in the league.  Of course, this projection is accounting for Doolittle remaining the Nats primary closer.

Davey Martinez may choose to send out Brandon Kintzler or Ryan Madson at points during the season.  If that’s the case, it will undoubtedly affect Doolittle’s save upside.  But it won’t sacrifice his effectiveness, which still matters.

Next: DOD Nats Predictions

Pitcher saves may be the icing on the cake, but ERA, WHIP, and K/9 are what matter most.  And this season, Doolittle can show he can be one of the best in all four categories.

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