Washington Nationals: Evaluating future building blocks

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The Washington Nationals have the choice of staying the course or re-setting the franchise after 2018. These young players will impact that decision.

Even though the Washington Nationals are still fighting to wrestle away divisional control from Atlanta, it’s hard not to already have an eye on the upcoming winter, as the team enters maybe the biggest off-season in franchise history.

As if Nats fans needed to be reminded anymore, Bryce Harper, Gio Gonzalez, and Daniel Murphy will all hit free agency following the 2018 campaign.

Harper is expected to command hundreds of millions on the market, and while Gonzalez and Murphy will both be 33 by the end of the year, they still have impressive track records that will likely net them eight-figure deals annually.

There is only a slim chance GM Mike Rizzo would re-sign all three players, as that would add roughly $50-$60 million to an already expensive payroll.

Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Tanner Roark, and Sean Doolittle constitute the 2019 core, with any contributions from Adam Eaton, Victor Robles, and Juan Soto an added benefit. At least one of the pending free agents will also probably be back, but the roster has more question marks than any in recent memory.

While that core is still quite good, as we’ve seen so far to start the year, injuries and underperformance from at least one player are near certainties. Washington will go into 2019 relying heavily on that group, but that can’t be all the Nationals have.

That’s where Washington’s key youngsters come into the fold. Michael Taylor, Wilmer Difo, Pedro Severino, and Erick Fedde have all shown legitimate flashes of major league skill, but still have red flags preventing them from becoming everyday starters.

The Nationals can afford to ride out the inconsistencies of youth when they have a deep stable of talented vets; eventually, though, those young players need to grab the mantle once the veterans phase out of their current roles.

Robles and Soto are in the picture, but the Nationals need its former prospects to potentially bridge the gap between Harper and the Dominican Harper. The rest of the 2018 season for Taylor, Difo, Severino, and Fedde will go a long way in determining what moves Rizzo makes this winter.

OF Michael Taylor

Though Michael Taylor has been hanging around the roster for years, 2018 was his first real chance at the center field starting job after the organization continually passed him over for Denard Span, Ben Revere, Eaton, and Turner.

In 2017, Taylor broke out after Eaton’s injury with a career-best .271/.320/.486 slash line, 19 home runs, and 17 steals in 118 games around his own injury. This year though, he has cratered and posted a .560 OPS, good for 156th out of 164 qualified batters.

He won’t hit as poorly as he has in 2018, but Taylor’s 2017 numbers were buoyed by a largely unsustainable .363 BABIP.

The middle ground looks a lot like his 2015-16 numbers, when he totaled a sub-par .645 OPS in 748 plate appearances. With the center-fielder’s quality defense, a below-average bat is still playable sandwiched between the bats of Harper and Eaton.

But in a very reasonable 2019 world where Harper is in pinstripes and Eaton is once again on the DL, Taylor cannot be expected to carry an entire outfield offensively.

There are reasons to stick with Taylor as something of an outfield centerpiece. He is a fantastic defender, and ranks 7th among 54 qualified outfielders in defensive runs saved since the start of 2017. He has legitimate speed, and if the Nationals move on from Harper and Murphy this winter, Davey Martinez could toss out a more speed-focused lineup.

And while it seems unsustainable, Taylor’s 2017 season did happen, so his success isn’t purely theoretical. Just last October, he did this in Game 4 off Wade Davis and this in Game 5 off Kyle Hendricks. It’s hard to give up on a 27 year old who is under contract through 2020 when he can do that.

Taylor’s 2018 numbers will be suppressed by his dreadful start, but if he is reverts to something close to his 2017 performance for the final four months, Rizzo can feel a little more comfortable losing Harper. An outfield group with Eaton, Taylor, Robles, and Soto is certainly capable.

But should he slip up, Soto and Robles are already chomping at the bit. The Nationals current lack of outfield depth has kept Taylor in his starting role this season, but things can always change in a hurry.

2B Wilmer Difo

While Taylor will have to deal with two elite prospects coming for his spot, the door might be opening for Difo at second base.

Difo, 26, has earned a good chunk of starts in Murphy’s stead this year while the three-time All-Star recovers from offseason knee surgery. He is batting .256/.343/.344 this season, which is right in line with his career stats.

Difo doesn’t have much pop at the plate with just 30 extra-base hits in 587 career plate appearances. He is also a perfectly average defender, as he was worth exactly zero defensive runs saved at second base in 2015, ’16, and ’18 (he was a minus-3 in 2017). He is a useful player, but certainly a replaceable one. In most instances, he would be better served as a utility player, but the Nationals may not have that luxury.

By next April, Murphy will be a 34-year-old middle infielder coming off a knee injury. At his best, Murphy was never much of a defender; who knows how he’ll look once he returns this summer. He has transformed himself into one of the best hitters in the game, but inking him to a multi-year deal is a scary proposition for the Nationals. Murphy may be better served on an American League team with a DH option as he advances into the next stage of his career.

If the Nats let Murphy walk, Difo is the only in-house candidate to replace him. Howie Kendrick will be 35 years old and coming off a ruptured Achilles. Three of Washington’s top seven prospects are middle infielders, but none are expected to be ready by 2019 Opening Day. There are some intriguing free agent candidates, including Brian Dozier and DJ LeMahieu, but they could be too pricey if the Nats’ ownership group is trying to cut payroll.

Washington could go outside the box and sign Josh Donaldson to play third and move Rendon to second base, but that seems a bit far-fetched. As long as Difo maintains his current level of average production, he may be the only option left standing.

C Pedro Severino

Catching depth has been an issue for the Nationals recently, which has pushed the 24-year-old Severino into a starting role this year. He has responded in kind with a .241/.343/.322 batting line in 102 plate appearances, perfectly acceptable for someone with his defensive reputation.

Severino will continue to receive the bulk of the starts at catcher now that Matt Wieters is on the DL for six to eight weeks following last week’s hamstring surgery. Other catching options include current backup Spencer Kieboom – a bit prospect – and Raudy Read, who is currently suspended for 80 games after a positive drug test. Read, the Nats’ no. 12 prospect, could leapfrog Severino if he shows well in the minors once he returns, but his stock has clearly taken a hit.

Severino is probably more suited for a backup role in the end, but if the Nationals don’t sign a big-ticket free agent catcher this winter, Severino will likely start on 2019 Opening Day. A non-hitting catcher is obviously workable; it does become an issue though if Taylor is struggling offensively in center field and Difo is only slapping the occasional single at second base. Along with the pitcher, that means nearly half of the lineup is offensively deficient, which puts an exorbitant amount of pressure on the rest of the regular hitters as well as the pitching staff.

The Nationals will have to juggle a lot of balls on offense this winter. If Harper re-signs, Murphy probably moves on, but Harper could paper over a few offensive holes. If Harper leaves, a replacement bat becomes paramount, whether it’s Murphy or another free agent at second base, or Yasmani Grandal or even Wilson Ramos at catcher.

It’s hard to see Taylor, Difo, and Severino all starting on Opening Day next year. But it’s happening right now, so anything is possible.

SP Erick Fedde

The roster uncertainty also extends to the starting rotation. With Gonzalez and Jeremy Hellickson hitting free agency this off-Nseason, Scherzer, Strasburg, and Roark are the only rotation guarantees for 2019.

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Even if Gonzalez returns to D.C., the Washington Nationals are going to need Fedde in some capacity. And after losing some of his prospect luster following his first MLB stint in 2017, Fedde rebounded in his first start of 2018 on Wednesday. His fastball consistently hovered in the mid-90’s and he struck out six batters to just one walk. All told, Fedde threw 94 pitches in 5.2 innings and allowed three runs, two of which scored on an uninspiring play by Harper in right field.

Washington has to be encouraged by the 25 year old’s progress, but there is no clear path for him to the majors this year, unless someone gets hurt or Hellickson’s wheels fall off. If the Nationals were really interested in getting Fedde major league innings, one out-of-the-box idea would be for Fedde to piggyback off of Hellickson starts (i.e. Hellickson throws four or five innings, and Fedde throws three or four). But for now, the Nationals are likely more comfortable with Fedde continuing to work as a full-time starter in Triple-A.

Say Fedde only gets a handful of spot starts in the majors this year. Even if he shows more flashes of talent, will that be enough to earn a rotation spot in 2019? After all, even if the Nationals were playing the options game at the time, Fedde was passed over for the fifth spot this year by both AJ Cole and Hellickson, the former of which has a 5.01 career ERA, and the latter of which led the major leagues in home runs allowed last season. The Nats clearly have their concerns about Fedde.

Still, of the four players mentioned in this piece, Fedde is probably the most likely to be the on Opening Day roster, unless he blows up during the summer. Washington will probably sign one pitcher in free agency this winter and give Fedde the fifth spot.

If you had to guess right now, you would say Taylor and Fedde start in 2019, with Difo on the bench behind either Murphy or a Murphy replacement. Severino will likely be on the Opening Day roster as well, and while it wouldn’t be surprising if he started, the Nats may well go out and sign a free agent catcher.

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If the Washington Nationals ownership group is looking to maintain a more manageable cap number, the team needs real production from Taylor, Fedde, Difo, and Severino. With Scherzer and Strasburg on long-term deals and a Rendon extension looming, quality players on cheap contracts will be even more vital.

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