It's been a breakout year for 26-year-old first baseman Luis García Jr. After spending six years trying to find any kind of year-to-year consistency, Lui's raised his ISO over 100 points, hitting 20 home runs for the first time in his career while becoming a competent defensive first baseman. Bennett wrote Monday about the trade interest he's generating on the market, so if it truly is time for the Paul Toboni administration to trade away a major leaguer, here's a few spots García could end up, and the rationale for trading him away to begin with.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox seem set at first base for the time being in Willson Contreras, but elsewhere the offense has been riddled with holes. Since the start of May, Red Sox designated hitters have managed just a 90 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and that offense as a hole is bottom 5 in MLB against righties since then. Boston has a penchant for uncovering short-side platoon bats that crush lefties: in the last three years alone, they've seen Rob Refsnyder, Romy González, and Andruw Monasterio among others come and go. From the other side, it's not been quite so rosy.
The Red Sox roster as a whole has been ravaged by injury. They've charged back with a 14-game win streak to re-enter the American League playoff picture, but an entire rotation's worth of pitchers and injuries to key infielders have seen them dip further into their depth than one might imagine they'd like; journeyman infielder Anthony Seigler has been leading off on a daily basis lately.
The Nationals roster has several possible upgrades on offer for the Sox. García is the obvious piece, but Daylen Lile feels particularly expendable: a dynamic, speedy corner outfielder, admittedly with OBP concerns, but who's shown up excellently defensively this year. He's also six years younger and includes three more years of control than Jarren Duran currently has, who's completely bottomed out to the tune of a 59 wRC+ this year.
Foster Griffin also feels like a possible piece to add to a package; the pitching injuries have left some question marks as to who's going to be available for a playoff push and, critically, to start playoff games. Patrick Sandoval might be able to dip into the third time through the order in August, but with how conservative managers are in October, he'd be lucky to see the 4th inning. Griffin's got 11 quality starts this year, and has completed seven innings five times. He doesn't massively move the needle in the return as a pure rental, but pitching is always pricy.
The question, then, is what Boston would be willing to part with. I've already made it clear I have my eye on Connelly Early; the lesser of the two young Boston lefties (with his counterpart Payton Tolle) has had an up-and-down rookie year, but all the reasons Washington would want to target him are the same reasons Boston likely want to keep him. Whether or not he's the centerpiece of a return in a hypothetical trade comes down to how much the Red Sox are willing to sacrifice to make a push this season. Otherwise, the top of the Red Sox system features several arms that are a 50 or higher FV but are a little further away from the bigs; Kyson Witherspoon is a year removed from a first-round selection, and Anthony Eyanson was taken two rounds later, but quickly became a consensus top 100 prospect by obliterating the middle-minors with a 26.0 K-BB% in a little over 60 innings as a 21-year-old. Boston saw upside in him, taking him well overslot to get him to sign.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks are treading water the same way the Nationals are; they're 51-49 at the 100-game mark, half a game ahead of the Nationals in the wild card race, and half a game out of a four-way tie for the third spot. That's a crowded group, and it's unclear if the Diamondbacks are going to attempt a push for the Postseason. If they were to, though, their first base performance against righties has been legendarily ineffective this season. A 38 wRC+ is nearly twice as bad as the next-worse (Mets) in that split, and they're second-last in wRC+ at DH against RHP.
I reached out to a connection of mine who holds Diamondbacks season tickets. He pointed out to me that the Mike Hazen regime has historically preferred to avoid acquiring pure rentals, instead opting more often for players with extended control. To me, that combined with the general weakness of the D-Backs' farm system ruled out concocting a trade with Lui that included Foster Griffin, who reaches free agency at season's end.
Ultimately, on paper, it's a good fit, but the Nationals are going to want pitching, and the Diamondbacks aren't going to be keen on parting with pitching. Someone like Ashton Izzi might be the centerpiece of a return; a back-of-the-rotation arm not yet on the 40-man roster. The Nationals could also target someone higher up the prospect board but lower in the minors like Patrick Forbes, who's got a lower floor but higher upside. At the end of the day, it's a tough sell.
Detroit Tigers
Whether or not the Tigers factor into a possible trade of Luis García Jr. ultimately relies on how they play over the next two weeks. Detroit, 47-53, are behind four other teams for the third wild card spot in the American League, but hold a 54-46 Pythagorean win-loss record, which is derived from their +33 run differential. Only five other teams in the American League have a positive run differential, and all of them are in playoff spots.
Motor City have struggled to get production out of several key spots. As Jay Jaffe pointed out on Monday, Colt Keith has hit well as a third baseman, but poorly as a DH. Spencer Torkelson has alternated strong and weak seasons, and a 100 wRC+ as a first baseman--especially a defensively weak first baseman--is not cutting it. They've also not gotten much from Kerry Carpenter, who had previously been one of their most reliable bats year-over-year.
Detroit have hit better lately, sitting pretty comfortably in the top half of offenses overall since the start of June, but superutilityman Zach McKinstry is still playing an everyday role despite a 57 wRC+ dragging his value down to about replacement-level. Some kind of injection of offense feels needed for the Tigers to compete. This is another place where Daylen Lile could also be a boon; besides All-Star Riley Greene in left field, the Tigers haven't had much consistency in the outfield. Part-time center fielder Javier Báez is rehabbing, but neither Parker Meadows (CF) nor Wenceel Pérez (RF) are particularly close to returning.
Getting key pitching out of the Tigers is tough; the top end of their minor league system is strong, but it's mostly position players. That said, Detroit have a decent amount of depth in their rotation and might be able to afford to deal out of it. Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal are both set to hit free agency at the end of the season, though. A top prospect probably wouldn't be in the cards for a Lui/Lile swap with Detroit, but one might imagine Scott Harris could be willing to part with several lower-caliber players to beef up the system. They're not going to land Troy Melton, but maybe they can recreate him in the aggregate. Am I doing this right?
Why even trade Garcia Jr. at all?
Look, man, I love Luis García Twonior. I predicted during Spring Training that this would be the year he breaks out and has a 20/20 campaign. Well, the stolen bases have dried up, but he replaced them with 20 home runs before the All-Star break. The fact of the matter is that despite being 26 years old, the Nats called him up so young that he's set to hit free agency next offseason. In the midst of a bona fide breakout with a 139 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, García's trade value has never been higher.
The Nats have wiggle room at first base, too. Abimelec Ortiz is slugging over .500 at Triple-A and is practically begging to see regular playing time in the big leagues. Yoyo Morales has significant in-zone contact issues--his zone-contact rating is in the first percentile of Triple-A hitters--but a 131 wRC+ with Rochester is hard to overlook. Andrés Chaparro, who's drawn the bulk of the starts this year at first base against left-handers, has finally gotten into gear out of the All-Star break.
The point of the exercise is to make clear that the Nationals have a surplus and should be prepared to deal from it to enhance weaker parts of the roster. Granted, I'm not personally going to be frustrated if they decide to hold him at the deadline. Perhaps an offseason trade is more palatable to the front office; perhaps they'll even extend him. Again, he's still only 26. But these are the conversations a winning team needs to have to prepare to continue winning, even if they ultimately decide not to act on it.
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