Jake Irvin was bad last year. Like, really bad. In 33 games started, the right-hander accumulated negative 0.4 Wins Above Replacement, and his 5.70 ERA was the worst among all qualified pitchers in Major League Baseball. Still, I believe in Jake Irvin. He can be a valuable part of the Nationals' starting rotation moving forward.
Irvin showed some promise in his first two seasons. In 2023, he had a 4.61 ERA in 121 innings pitched, and in 2024, he had a 4.41 ERA in 187 and two-thirds innings pitched. While these results were not electrifying, the right-hander showed that he could be a serviceable Major League starter.
This past season though, he quickly declined. One potential explanation was his sharp decrease in velocity. According to Pitch Profiler, his average fastball velocity was 93.9 miles per hour. This year, it dropped to 92.4. Correspondingly, his strikeout rate dropped from 20.3 percent to 15.8 percent. With less velocity on his fastball, Irvin's stuff led to contact and did not get Major League hitters out with success.
Despite the significant decrease in Irvin's velocity, he still has the potential to succeed. He has the potential to return to the track of pitching effectively. While Irvin’s stuff was worse this past season, it still should have been good enough for him to be successful. Statistics like stuff plus look to determine the raw quality of a pitcher’s repertoire, holding all other factors constant. They measure things like pure velocity and movement, and they report that Irvin is a league average pitcher. Irvin has the arsenal to be a quality pitcher. He just needs to find the arsenal and strategy that will maximize his success.
One potential solution for Irvin would be to increase his slider usage. Currently, Irvin throws his slider 4.4 percent of the time. According to Stuff Plus metrics, this pitch is Irvin’s only offering whose metrics are better than the Major League average. Irvin needs to maximize the usage of the pitches that have above-average intrinsic qualities.
Another change Irvin can make is throwing his sinker more often than his fastball. He currently throws his fastball 32.2 percent of the time, and he is throwing his sinker 21.9 percent of the time. With diminished velocity and not much shape, hitters crush Irvin’s fastball. However, since his sinker moves more, the hard-hit rates on that pitch are lower than the hard hit rates on his fastball.
Irvin is still young and is not a cause for the Nationals. However, this past season was truly a disaster. It is up to him and the Nationals' leadership to determine whether he can be an effective Major League pitcher.