We are now on the cusp of the 2025 MLB Draft, a day that many fans of the Washington Nationals like myself have been looking forward to for months. After winning the Draft Lottery at the Winter Meetings back in December, fans and experts alike have been trying to nail down who the Nationals will look to pick with the #1 overall pick on Sunday.
Complicating matters is that the team is currently mired in an absolute nightmare season, one that has gone so poorly despite having minimal expectations that ownership chose to fire the team's manager and general manager a week before the draft. However, despite people like myself believing that the firing of Rizzo actually made the draft plans of the Nationals pretty clear, it appears as if I am now in the minority with my thought process.
If you have been keeping up with MLB Mock Drafts like I have since the lottery happened in December, you are likely no stranger to seeing a handful of names being projected to the Nationals with the first pick. Initially, it was Ethan Holliday or Jace LaViolette, then it was Jamie Arnold, then it was Liam Doyle, then it circled back to Holliday. But after being the betting favorite to be the top pick since December, Holliday is no longer the favorite in the eyes of Vegas oddsmakers heading into Draft weekend.
As of a new trend in betting just a few days ago, the new favorite is LSU lefty Kade Anderson, who firmly put himself in the discussion to go #1 following his dominance in his team's championship run at the College World Series. His complete game shutout in the finals was the stuff of legends, and the helium he has received to his stock could potentially make him the top pick tomorrow. After being plus money for the longest time, he is now -180 according to Bet365, and as low as -280 depending on which platform you use.
It appears as if several Mock Draft writers, from Kiley McDaniel at ESPN to Jonathan Mayo at MLB.com, and even many other experts at other outlets are in lockstep with Vegas, as now pretty much no matter where you look, Anderson is widely being picked as the favorite to go #1 to the Nationals.
However, the truth is that nobody outside of the people in the draft room know who the pick is going to be at this point. Especially in a class like this where there is no consensus top pick, it seems as if it's still anyone's best guess as to who the pick will be. This is proved by this random but hilarious stat, which is that MLB Pipeline's pair of draft experts are a combined 0/8 in predicting the #1 pick in the last 4 years.
As pointed out by Paul Cubbage on X, they both picked Marcelo Mayer to go #1 in 2021, Druw Jones in 2022, Wyatt Langford in 2023, and JJ Wetherholt last season. None of those players went #1, and none of them except for Jones even went within the top 3 selections. For those in the camp of not wanting Anderson with the 1st pick, perhaps this is good news, but perhaps Vegas knows something that nobody else does.
Do you think Kade Anderson should be the 1st pick on Sunday? As always, please let me know on X, @DCBerk.