As the season churns on, FanGraphs prospect writer Eric Longenhagen just dropped the site's newest prospect ranking for the Washington Nationals organization. FanGraphs, unlike most other prospect evaluation hotbeds, releases their rankings for each organization over the course of the first half, rather than at a set time.
The Top of the List
While it's perhaps not a surprise, it's also a little bit of a relief to see 2025 no. 1 overall selection Eli Willits top this chart. Willits climbs from 27th overall in baseball in the second half last year to 14th this year, and jumps to a 55 FV from a 50. That has him leapfrogging right-hander Jarlin Susana, who now falls from 23rd to 29th in MLB, but still remains at a 55 FV.
Willits' future hit tool is assessed at a 60, with strong fielding and speed to match, and the hope is that as he fills out his frame--he's still only 18--a little extra game power will start to take shape. Nothing actually changed in his number grades, but the evaluators at FanGraphs upgraded his contact type from "inside-out" to "gap-to-gap" as Eli, now slashing .259/.394/.432 in 20 games at Class-A Fredericksburg after a slow start, starts to find his form. He's also 16 for 19 on stolen base attempts, for what that's worth.
Nothing has changed for Susana specifically; he's been hurt basically the entire period since the last update to the list in the second half of 2025. With no performance, it's expected that he'll slide down the chart a little bit. Susana's targeting a return in the second half of this season, and could be up in the majors as soon as May or June of 2027 if his return to game action goes well.
Harry Ford, for all his early-season struggles, remains solidly on the FanGraphs top 100, though he slides from 43rd to 77th. Again, nothing in his grades have changed, but with another year having gone by and Ford now homerless through almost the first full month of play at Rochester, other prospects on the list are beginning to lap him in production.
The Risers
The most notable riser is Ronny Cruz, who went from 14th in the system as a shortstop in his age-18 season in the complex league to now 4th in the system and 85th in MLB as a 19-year-old third baseman. Cruz was acquired from the Cubs at the 2025 deadline in the lopsided deal that sent Michael Soroka to the Cubs, and he's made nothing but noise since starting in full-season ball in 2026. He won't be 20 until August, and he's already climbed to Advanced-A and shows no signs of slowing. Baseball America evaluators can't stop raving about him, with BA prospect writer Geoff Pontes comparing his rise through the minors to that of Padres star Fernando TatÃs Jr. Longenhagen's evaluation cites comparisons to Junior Caminero, with hit tool concerns but enough raw power and bat speed to make up for it.
Also climbing the ranks--and another player Baseball America has tabbed for his growth--is Miguel Sime Jr., who will turn 19 in May. The Nationals took him well over slot in the 4th round in 2025, and after making his professional debut to start this season, he's rewarded them by striking out 50% of all batters he's faced in his first 11 innings. Longenhagen views him as a single-inning, backend bullpen type long-term due to his shaky command--he's running a 23.9% walk rate thus far in his young pro career--but the Nats are giving him a shot at starting in the lower minors. Sime was the 33rd-ranked prospect in the system by FanGraphs in the second half last year; he starts 2026 in the top 10.
Jackson Kent also climbed from 25th to the top 10, settling into 9th. The lefty's velocity is up firmly to start the year, throwing his fastball 3 MPH harder than he did last year so far, but a large factor of his rise up the ranks is attributed to his changeup, which earned a 60 current/70 future grade in this publication after being assessed a 50/55 in the second half of 2025. Longenhagen also likes the 23-year-old's command improvement; he's running a dominant 28.9 K-BB% through his first nine innings and change of the year at Double-A Harrisburg.
The Fallers
A number of the names in the top 10 in the second half year fell well out of that range in FanGraphs' 2026 rankings. Chief among those are Luke Dickerson, who dropped from 4th as a second baseman to 13th as a center field/utility type, and Seaver King, who tumbled all the way from 5th to 25th.
Dickerson's key issue is his hit tool, which fell from a 45 projection to a 35 amidst concerns about his long-term bat control. He's off to a hot start in his first 20 games this year at Class-A Fredericksburg, but Longenhagen still views him as a Dylan Moore-type long-term:
"[Dickerson] ran a 73% contact rate in 2025 and has been a bit more whiff prone than that to start this year. Though he has short levers, Dickerson’s bat tends to enter the zone late, and he swings underneath a lot of fastballs. He’s strong and capable of making all-fields doubles contact when he does find a barrel, and his speed helps turn some of his awkward line drive contact into even more two-baggers."Eric Longenhagen, prospect writer
Both the fielding and hitting aspects of Seaver King's evaluations plummeted between last update and now. Now 23 years old, Mike Rizzo's final first-round pick is still viewed as more of a project than anything. MLB Pipeline ranks him 7th in the system, but both sources cite athleticism above all else as the reason for his location on their lists. King had a torrid showing in the Arizona Fall League, but he's going to need to become a much more refined player quickly to have a path to any kind of sustained success in the big leagues.
Christian Franklin also fell considerably, from 6th to 29th, though that's likely largely on merit of being yet another year older--he's already crossing into his late 20s as a prospect--and diminished confidence in his ability to generate power out of his relatively smaller frame. His writeup praises his defense in the corners--less so in center, where his 50-grade speed struggles to cover needed ground--but ultimately concludes that Franklin's going to be a long-term short-side platoon bat, coming off the bench to shore up corner OF defense and pinch-hit against lefties.
The Newcomers
We'd be remiss to leave out some of the names debuting on the Nationals list following offseason transactions. 24-year-old righty starter Alejandro Rosario, acquired in the MacKenzie Gore trade with Texas, debuts at 6th in the Nationals organization, but it's a tenuous ranking. Rosario, who FanGraphs ranked 39th overall in baseball at the start of 2025, did not pitch at all after requiring elbow surgery. Apparently, a different medical issue unrelated to baseball presented itself that required rectification before the elbow procedure could be done, though earlier this month Spencer Nusbaum at The Athletic indicated that he finally went under the knife in March. That will leave over two full seasons of missed time before Rosario finally gets back into game action, so at present he's more of a concept than a prospect.
For many prospect writers, Gavin Fien was the prize in the MacKenzie Gore trade, but Longenhagen evidently has taken more to Devin Fitz-Gerald, who debuts at 10th in the organization. Fitz-Gerald, a year and a half Fien's senior and sporting a fantastic baseball name, has impressed at all levels of the lower minors to start his career after the Rangers took him in the 5th round of the 2024 Draft. He's 10-for-11 in stolen base attempts through 20 games at Advanced-A Wilmington, and his writeup from Longenhagen likes him as a lower-impact but well-rounded type long-term. The switch-hitting middle-infielder has an ETA of 2030.
Longenhagen is less bullish on Fien, the 19-year-old 12th-overall pick in 2025. The source of that bearishness is extreme swing-and-miss, leading to elevated strikeout rates--Fien struck out in nearly half his plate appearances in his first four games at Class-A Fredericksburg before left wrist inflammation put him on the shelf. He features a powerful stroke, but one that currently can't adjust to breaking pitches. Fien's still only 19, and there's plenty of time to make adjustments, but there's understandable concerns to his approach.
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